July 30th, 2014
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Have you taken a trading course — or two, or three — only to find yourself still struggling years later to achieve profitability?  Maybe you’re someone with virtually no knowledge of the stock market looking for an alternative source of income if the economy should crash. You could also be bored housewife keen on using your mornings more productively. Or a college grad with no job prospects…or a laid-off factory worker…or a Realtor worried about very tough times ahead. Or a Louisiana shrimper looking for an easier life. Or a guy who’s tired of living with his mother…or of being hounded by loan sharks. If so, Rick’s Picks invites you to apply for a full scholarship to the Hidden Pivot Webinar scheduled for January 11-12.  Three stipends worth $990 apiece will be awarded. However, this particular class, as well as the post-grad perks you’ll receive, will go beyond anything we’ve offered in the six years » Read the full article

Video: Why the Euro Hasn’t Crashed

by Rick Ackerman on December 9, 2011 4:58 am GMT · 2 comments

This demo was done at the invitation of TradersLog.com and starts with a brief explanation of the Hidden Pivot Method. We then took a close look at some key charts that provide clues concerning how the global financial crisis might play out. Our focus was on long-term charts for T-Bonds, U.S. stocks, the dollar and the euro. The conclusions we drew are somewhat counterintuitive, most particularly a prediction that the euro will not crash when the PIIGs eventually default.


TODAY'S ACTION for Friday

Gold’s Enemies Open Fire

by Rick Ackerman on December 9, 2011 5:29 am GMT

Reputable sources reported that yesterday’s mini-crash in gold was orchestrated by sellers that included the U.S. Fed, the BIS and the Bank of England. Under the circumstances, with the central banks doing their sleazy best to temporarily overwhelm sharp rallies in bullion, we can’t be too careful initiating trades in gold or in managing position risk once we’re aboard.

Accordingly, today’s Gold tout is accompanied by a chart that shows numerous possibilities and potential camouflage opportunities.  Our objective is to get long, but only at such times as we can pare risk down to a bare minimum, and only when the entry signal meets our criteria precisely. Considering the bullish triangle that has been developing for months on Comex Gold’s daily charts, seizing the opportunity is akin to reaching beneath a guillotine to retrieve a 10 carat diamond.


Rick's Picks for Friday
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GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1716.60)

by Rick Ackerman on December 9, 2011 5:14 am GMT

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SIH12 – March Silver (Last:31.635)

by Rick Ackerman on December 9, 2011 5:51 am GMT

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ESZ11 – December Mini S&P (Last:1246.75)

by Rick Ackerman on December 9, 2011 6:12 am GMT

December Mini S&P (ESZ11) price chart with targetsYesterday’s bull trap created an impulse leg with immediate downside potential to 1210.00. The pattern is less than compelling but clear enough nonetheless to warrant bottom-fishing via camouflage at 1228.25.  That’s the target’s midpoint sibling, and it promises to at least blunt the onslaught begun from Thursday morning’s fleeting high. Alternatively, on a bullish turn, camouflageurs could try leveraging a pullback from the 1246.75 peak labeled in the chart. _________ UPDATE (9:11 a.m. EST):  The 1228.25 support came within a single tick of nailing the overnight low, so I am establishing a tracking position for your further guidance.  Although a bid at 1228.25 would have just missed, the ‘camo’ pattern that followed the reversal we’d anticipated was absolute perfection on the 30-minute chart (A=1228.50, B=12432.75, C=1235.75). Entry was signaled at 1239.50, and profits taken on half the position (i.e., two contracts) at the p midpoint, 1243.00. The subsequent thrust to ‘D’ at 1250.25 fell two ticks shy of being a “winner,” and so we hold two contracts with a cost basis of 1236.00. Use a fixed stop-loss at 1235.50 for now, but switch to a 4.00-point trailing stop on the single contract that would remain if 1267.00 is hit.  I am not recommending that you carry the position over the weekend, so if 1267.00 is reached in the final hour, take the money and run. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (11:53 a.m. EST):  The futures have wafted above our “winner” threshold at 1250.25, allowing us to exit a third contract and keep one with a paper profit-adjusted cost basis of 1228.75.  My short-term target is now 1259.25, implying that a too-tight 1.50-point trailing stop would be in effect from the so-far high at  1255.25.  My suggestion is to play it as you please, but to use a “structural” stop at 1246.50 whose provenance is clear on the one-minute chart._______ AND YET ANOTHER (1:14 p.m. EST): In the chat room just now, I’ve suggested taking some QQQ puts home for the weekend. Buy January 54 puts if and when the December E-Mini S&Ps trade at or near the 1259.25 target.  The equivalent target for the march contract is 1253.50.

QQQQ – Nasdaq ETF (Last:57.09)

by Rick Ackerman on December 9, 2011 10:39 pm GMT

It is 20 minutes from Friday’s close, and chat-roomers have reported buying QQQ Jan 54 puts and Jan 53 puts, respectively, for 0.74 and 0.96.  These buys came with the E-Mini futures trading within a hair of the rally targets I’d furnished for the December and March contracts.  I am establishing a tracking position for both of these options, but for now, just sit tight.

$GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1300.60)

by Rick Ackerman on July 30, 2014 1:08 am GMT

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$ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1964.75)

by Rick Ackerman on July 30, 2014 12:40 am GMT

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$NFLX – Netflix (Last:424.29)

by Rick Ackerman on July 28, 2014 4:32 am GMT

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As GDXJ was working its way south from around $43, my bearish forecast called for a washout low at exactly 40.42, a Hidden Pivot support of great clarity. I’d suggested buying down there ‘aggressively’ and with an ‘absurdly’ tight stop-loss.  This advice would have paid off handsomely for anyone who followed it, since the stock trampolined 64 cents yesterday off an actual low of 40.43, a penny from my target. Since a subscriber reported doing the trade as advised, I’m establishing a tracking position for the further guidance of all who may have gotten long. (He reported having bought 1000 shares off a 40.44 bid, but I’ll assume a more conservative 400 shares.)  Accordingly, I’ll recommend exiting half the position on Friday’s opening if you haven’t done so already.  We’ll impute any profits thereof to the cost basis of the 200 shares that will remain. _______ UPDATE (July 27, 9:48 p.m. ET): Exiting 200 shares on Friday’s 41.20 opening leaves us with a tracking position of 200 shares whose imputed cost basis is 39.66.  Exit another 100 shares on today’s opening and tie the rest to an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the 15-minute chart.  At the moment, that would imply bailing out on an uncorrected dive touching 41.73. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 11:46 a.m.):  We got sleazed when DaBoyz opened the stock on the so-far low  of the day, 42.40.  The good news is that such shakedowns usually occur because the smart money is trying to buy the stock.  In any event, I am tracking a 100-share position with an effective cost basis of 37.25.  For the time being, let it run. _______ UPDATE July 29, 7:23 p.m. EDT): Let’s turn the position into a covered write if GDXJ slips beneath 42.25 today (see inset, a new chart).  Specifically, you should short one August 16th 41 call for each hundred shares you own. Don’t simply bang out a sale on the bid when the stock hits 42.24, since you could get clipped for as much as 0.20-0.25 on the spread that way.  Instead, you should be deliberate and relaxed about the short sale of the call, since we are in the catbird’s seat and have little to lose by taking in some option premium at this point.  Shoot for a price midway between the bid and offer, and don’t rule out the possibility that GDXJ could snap back above 42.25 even in the process of breaking down.

$+PCLN – Priceline (Last:1238.98)

by Rick Ackerman on July 24, 2014 12:54 am GMT

A subscriber reported success yesterday legging into the 1340/50/60 August 16 call butterfly that I’d advised. He did so 32 times at no cost, as suggested, but it took a $10 move in the stock between legs to get filled so advantageously. His maximum profit would be $32,000  with the stock trading at 1350 come August 16.  Since he owns the position without cost, no loss is possible even if PCLN should all to zero or rally to $1000. We’ll do nothing further for now, but I’d suggest that those of you who were unable to buy the spread keep trying.  We’ll shoot for a partial profit if the stock rallies $40-$50 in the next few weeks but otherwise do nothing further. I’ve reproduced a chart that shows why our expectation of a $120 rally from current levels, to a 1358.18 Hidden Pivot target, is not exactly farfetched.  To that end, a pop above the 1270.59 midpoint pivot would be most encouraging. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 7:46 p.m. EDT): Yesterday another subscriber reported legging into ‘free’ butterfly spreads as suggested. Keep trying for at least one more day if you haven’t yet acquired a stake, since the spread will remain cheap as long as PCLN doesn’t blast off.

$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:115.40)

by Rick Ackerman on July 23, 2014 5:36 am GMT

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$EURUSD – Euro/USD (Last:1.34302)

by Rick Ackerman on July 23, 2014 12:01 am GMT

I haven’t tracked currencies that closely, but because they tend to move very precisely to Hidden Pivot targets, traders should consider exploiting them whenever possible. Notice how EUR/USD has broken beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1.34841 after noodling around near that pivot for a few hours on Thursday. This suggests that it is bound for D=1.34197, at least.  You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks.  Notice as well that there are two slightly higher possibilities for point ‘A’.  The correction targets they yield lie, respectively, at 1.34114 and, worst case, 1.33992.  I expect these numbers to work very precisely, so use them in whatever way suits you best.  Note as well that a last-gasp rally to p=1.34738 after EUR/USD has fallen a bit would be short-able. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 5:35 p.m. EDT):  Yesterday’s short-squeeze feint topped precisely at a midpoint Hidden Pivot (see inset, a new chart) that was originally support but which is now resistance. This price action confirms the pattern we’ve chosen as well as its ‘D’ target at 1.34197. At least one subscriber has confirmed getting short in the chat room.  _______ UPDATE (July 27, 10:43 p.m.):  Friday’s low occurred at 1.34206 — 0.00009 above our 1.34197 target.  Shorts should have covered there, but if you were able to bottom-fish the low and catch a piece of the 144-tick rally that ensued, please let me know in the chat room and so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.

September E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:3965.00

by Rick Ackerman on July 15, 2014 4:21 am GMT

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The Dollar Index turned higher yesterday an inch from a correction target that had been three weeks in coming (see inset). This portends a bullish change for the intermediate term.  The actual target is 79.74, and there is always a chance it will be breached. If so, there’s an alternative target at 79.62, but if it fails as well, especially without a fight, the implication would be more slippage to as low as  78.91, where a key low recorded in early May would thereupon beg to be tested. _______ UPDATE (11:17 p.m. EDT): Yesterday’s low occurred at 79.74 exactly. If the dollar is about to reverse and move higher, it will have to happen here, and now. _______ UPDATE (July 9, 2:33 a.m. ET): The dollar rallied strongly for a few days, but it is still not out of the woods because the move narrowly failed to clear an important ‘external’ peak at 80.38 recorded on 6/26. _______ UPDATE (July 16, 6:55 p.m.): DXY came within an inch of a clear and important Hidden Pivot rally target at 80.60 yesterday (see inset, a new chart). However, it will have to push past it to imply that the rally from the July 1 low (which had been predicted to-the-penny) is more than just a flash-in-the-pan.


Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The Hidden Pivot Webinar is two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on August 13-14, 2014. For more information, or to register, click here.