Have you taken a trading course — or two, or three — only to find yourself still struggling years later to achieve profitability? Maybe you’re someone with virtually no knowledge of the stock market looking for an alternative source of income if the economy should crash. You could also be bored housewife keen on using your mornings more productively. Or a college grad with no job prospects…or a laid-off factory worker…or a Realtor worried about very tough times ahead. Or a Louisiana shrimper looking for an easier life. Or a guy who’s tired of living with his mother…or of being hounded by loan sharks. If so, Rick’s Picks invites you to apply for a full scholarship to the Hidden Pivot Webinar scheduled for January 11-12. Three stipends worth $990 apiece will be awarded. However, this particular class, as well as the post-grad perks you’ll receive, will go beyond anything we’ve offered in the six years » Read the full article
This demo was done at the invitation of TradersLog.com and starts with a brief explanation of the Hidden Pivot Method. We then took a close look at some key charts that provide clues concerning how the global financial crisis might play out. Our focus was on long-term charts for T-Bonds, U.S. stocks, the dollar and the euro. The conclusions we drew are somewhat counterintuitive, most particularly a prediction that the euro will not crash when the PIIGs eventually default.
Reputable sources reported that yesterday’s mini-crash in gold was orchestrated by sellers that included the U.S. Fed, the BIS and the Bank of England. Under the circumstances, with the central banks doing their sleazy best to temporarily overwhelm sharp rallies in bullion, we can’t be too careful initiating trades in gold or in managing position risk once we’re aboard.
Accordingly, today’s Gold tout is accompanied by a chart that shows numerous possibilities and potential camouflage opportunities. Our objective is to get long, but only at such times as we can pare risk down to a bare minimum, and only when the entry signal meets our criteria precisely. Considering the bullish triangle that has been developing for months on Comex Gold’s daily charts, seizing the opportunity is akin to reaching beneath a guillotine to retrieve a 10 carat diamond.
Yesterday’s bull trap created an impulse leg with immediate downside potential to 1210.00. The pattern is less than compelling but clear enough nonetheless to warrant bottom-fishing via camouflage at 1228.25. That’s the target’s midpoint sibling, and it promises to at least blunt the onslaught begun from Thursday morning’s fleeting high. Alternatively, on a bullish turn, camouflageurs could try leveraging a pullback from the 1246.75 peak labeled in the chart. _________ UPDATE (9:11 a.m. EST): The 1228.25 support came within a single tick of nailing the overnight low, so I am establishing a tracking position for your further guidance. Although a bid at 1228.25 would have just missed, the ‘camo’ pattern that followed the reversal we’d anticipated was absolute perfection on the 30-minute chart (A=1228.50, B=12432.75, C=1235.75). Entry was signaled at 1239.50, and profits taken on half the position (i.e., two contracts) at the p midpoint, 1243.00. The subsequent thrust to ‘D’ at 1250.25 fell two ticks shy of being a “winner,” and so we hold two contracts with a cost basis of 1236.00. Use a fixed stop-loss at 1235.50 for now, but switch to a 4.00-point trailing stop on the single contract that would remain if 1267.00 is hit. I am not recommending that you carry the position over the weekend, so if 1267.00 is reached in the final hour, take the money and run. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (11:53 a.m. EST): The futures have wafted above our “winner” threshold at 1250.25, allowing us to exit a third contract and keep one with a paper profit-adjusted cost basis of 1228.75. My short-term target is now 1259.25, implying that a too-tight 1.50-point trailing stop would be in effect from the so-far high at 1255.25. My suggestion is to play it as you please, but to use a “structural” stop at 1246.50 whose provenance is clear on the one-minute chart._______ AND YET ANOTHER (1:14 p.m. EST): In the chat room just now, I’ve suggested taking some QQQ puts home for the weekend. Buy January 54 puts if and when the December E-Mini S&Ps trade at or near the 1259.25 target. The equivalent target for the march contract is 1253.50.
It is 20 minutes from Friday’s close, and chat-roomers have reported buying QQQ Jan 54 puts and Jan 53 puts, respectively, for 0.74 and 0.96. These buys came with the E-Mini futures trading within a hair of the rally targets I’d furnished for the December and March contracts. I am establishing a tracking position for both of these options, but for now, just sit tight.
More downside over the near-term to at least 15.865 (see inset) looks very likely, so traders should position from the short side. The opportunity may be past by morning, but night owls can use an entry trigger on the lesser charts (i.e., 5-minute bar or less) to get aboard. I’ve highlighted the relevant ABC pattern, which appears at the rightmost edge of the chart. ______ UPDATE (9:23 a.m. EDT): Anyone who got short as advised made a pile of money overnight without much stress. The futures have plummeted and are currently down about 63 cents, having recorded a so-far low at 15.635 that exceeded our target by by 23 cents.
The failure of Tuesday’s rally to reach the modest, 1260.30 Hidden Pivot target we were using as a minimum upside objective is not exactly a sign of robust health. The target remains theoretically viable because the point ‘C’ low at 1232.00 with which it is associated is still intact. However, the hourly chart has swung bearishly impulsive as a result of the ratcheting, two-day sell-off from the recent high at 1255.60. Short-term downside potential is to the 1232.30 target shown. If this Hidden Pivot support is easily breached, however, it would suggest more sellers are waiting in the wings. Alternatively, the futures would need to surpass 1246.30 without having first touched the 1239.30 midpoint support (see inset) to turn the hourly chart short-term bullish. _______ UPDATE (October 27, 8:01 p.m. EDT): I expect the next leg down to reach the 1216.40 Hidden Pivot support shown. Alternatively, a print today at 1236.30 would give bulls a fighting chance. _______ UPDATE (October 29, 1:23 p.m.): 1202.10 is my new downside target — a Hidden Pivot support identified during this morning’s weekly tutorial session. _______ UPDATE: An 1125.00 target broached yesterday during my regular interview with Al Korelin should suffice to keep you out of trouble. I hadn’t imagined the futures would get halfway there overnight.
Apple’s gap yesterday through the 100.41 midpoint resistance (see inset) strongly implies that its D sibling at 105.64 will be reached. Although a pullback to the midpoint should be treated as a belated buying opportunity, I wouldn’t suggest chasing the stock higher. That said, the four labeled peaks are tailor-made for the Hidden Pivot trader who can employ the ‘camouflage’ technique for getting long. If you understand why, you should go for it! _______ UPDATE (8:13 p.m.): The broad averages pulled Apple back down to earth yesterday when the stock tried to go opposite weakness that surfaced around mid-session. This runs flatly counter to my speculative idea that AAPL might pull the broad averages higher. That’s still possible, since yesterday’s 104.11 peak fell 53 cents of a rally target that remains valid in theory. However, we’ll eschew speculation for now and simply watch to see whether the 102.44 Hidden Pivot support holds (see inset, a new chart). _______ UPDATE (October 23, 1:59 p.m.): Apple has rebounded sharply today, off a 102.90 correction low to a so-far high of 105.05 that’s 59 cents shy of our target. Most longs should have been exited by now. ______ UPDATE (October 27, 8:07 p.m.): Friday’s high at 105.49 came within 0.15 of the target flagged above. Bulls can continue to hold small long positions for a swing at the fences, but I’d suggest tying your shares to a stop-loss based on a downtrending impulse leg on the 15-minute chart. Currently, that would imply stopping yourself out if an uncorrected fall touches 104.52. _______ UPDATE (October 28, 8:44 p.m.): Still long? Be alert at 107.08, a Hidden Pivot target that looks all but certain to be reached but which could stop the rally cold. You should tighten your trailing stop there in any case. ______ UPDATE (October 29, 9:25 p.m.): The rally has shredded some challenging Hidden Pivots, but let’s see if it can bully its way past the 109.07 target shown. In any case, it is my minimum upside objective for the near term.