ESZ11 – December Mini S&P (Last:1246.75)

December Mini S&P (ESZ11) price chart with targetsYesterday’s bull trap created an impulse leg with immediate downside potential to 1210.00. The pattern is less than compelling but clear enough nonetheless to warrant bottom-fishing via camouflage at 1228.25.  That’s the target’s midpoint sibling, and it promises to at least blunt the onslaught begun from Thursday morning’s fleeting high. Alternatively, on a bullish turn, camouflageurs could try leveraging a pullback from the 1246.75 peak labeled in the chart. _________ UPDATE (9:11 a.m. EST):  The 1228.25 support came within a single tick of nailing the overnight low, so I am establishing a tracking position for your further guidance.  Although a bid at 1228.25 would have just missed, the ‘camo’ pattern that followed the reversal we’d anticipated was absolute perfection on the 30-minute chart (A=1228.50, B=12432.75, C=1235.75). Entry was signaled at 1239.50, and profits taken on half the position (i.e., two contracts) at the p midpoint, 1243.00. The subsequent thrust to ‘D’ at 1250.25 fell two ticks shy of being a “winner,” and so we hold two contracts with a cost basis of 1236.00. Use a fixed stop-loss at 1235.50 for now, but switch to a 4.00-point trailing stop on the single contract that would remain if 1267.00 is hit.  I am not recommending that you carry the position over the weekend, so if 1267.00 is reached in the final hour, take the money and run. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (11:53 a.m. EST):  The futures have wafted above our “winner” threshold at 1250.25, allowing us to exit a third contract and keep one with a paper profit-adjusted cost basis of 1228.75.  My short-term target is now 1259.25, implying that a too-tight 1.50-point trailing stop would be in effect from the so-far high at  1255.25.  My suggestion is to play it as you please, but to use a “structural” stop at 1246.50 whose provenance is clear on the one-minute chart._______ AND YET ANOTHER (1:14 p.m. EST): In the chat room just now, I’ve suggested taking some QQQ puts home for the weekend. Buy January 54 puts if and when the December E-Mini S&Ps trade at or near the 1259.25 target.  The equivalent target for the march contract is 1253.50.