November 22nd, 2014
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Weekly Commentary

[The commentary below elicited quite a response, so I'm letting it run for a second day. Wednesday's commentary will feature two very important trading tips for permabears who have been trying for years without success to short the elusive Mother of All Tops. If you're interested in learning the "parlor trick" that we used on Friday to get short the QQQs ourselves within a hair of the intraday high, click here. And if you'd like to have these daily commentaries delivered to your e-mail box free of charge, as will as free access for a week to all of Rick's Picks services and feratures,  click here. RA]

Who’d have believed that the word “hypothecation” would grab the financial world’s shakers and movers by the balls last week, whirl them round-and-round, then dash their cynical pretenses of “saving” Europe against a stone wall?  Click here to read the article on this topic at ZeroHedge if you haven’t done so already. And then send it to everyone you know. We did, with a warning that the collapse of the banking system is no longer merely possible or likely, but unavoidable. The article takes pains to explain why in terms that even the layman can understand. It will undoubtedly have created quite a stir not only among the broad readership of web sites that linked it, but among those charged with the task of further delaying Europe’s financial collapse. The spinmeisters and policymakers have been doing their utmost to obscure the details of the supposed rescue effort, since the better those efforts are understood, the more absurd they become. » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday

Dollar Looks Poised to Surge

by Rick Ackerman on December 13, 2011 5:30 am GMT

The Dollar Index looks set to pop above 80, an event that would have dramatic implications for the dollar carry-trade. I will write at greater length about this later in the week, but for now you should check out the DXY tout and the chart that accompanies it, since it shows how all hell might be about to break loose in the form of a runaway dollar.


Rick's Picks for Tuesday
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ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1236.50)

by Rick Ackerman on December 13, 2011 4:35 am GMT

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QQQQ – Nasdaq ETF (Last:56.52)

by Rick Ackerman on December 13, 2011 4:58 am GMT

Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) price chart with targetsWe hold two Jan 54 puts and two Jan 53 puts whose cost basis has been profit-adjusted downward to, respectively, 0.76 and 0.57. I’ve suggested shorting December 54 and 53 monthly puts against them for the same price, yielding risk-free calendar spreads, and that’s what we will do officially. We may try something else if the selloff begun yesterday stalls, though, since it will take a pretty nasty downdraft to get our short offer filled.

However, you might also consider emulating a chat-roomer who reported legging into $2 vertical bear spreads by shorting January 52 puts against the January 54 puts he already held. Because he did so for a net credit, the position will make money regardless of whether the QQQs rise or fall. However, it will also give him a risk-free bear play into the New Year, with a $200 profit assured if the Cubes fall below 52 by January expiration.  For now, my minimum downside target is the 54.87 midpoint of the pattern shown.  You can leverage this number as you see fit, but my hunch is that it will foster a tradable bounce from within no more than four ticks of 54.87.

Click here if you’d like to learn more about the Hidden Pivot Method, including how to identify and trade targets such as the ones used above, and to forecast trends with bold confidence.

GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1658.80)

by Rick Ackerman on December 13, 2011 5:13 am GMT

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SIH12 – March Silver (Last:31.100)

by Rick Ackerman on December 13, 2011 5:16 am GMT

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DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:79.52)

by Rick Ackerman on December 13, 2011 5:26 am GMT

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$+BABA – Alibaba (Last:110.10)

by Rick Ackerman on November 21, 2014 3:32 am GMT

Based on my chat room post late in Thursday’s session, subscribers were able to stake out some small ‘Jackpot Bets,’ buying expiring calls at the 112 and 113 strikes for as little, respectively, as 0.21 and 0.15.  The latter options traded for as little as 0.10 yesterday before rocketing to 1.00 when Bahh-Bahh found traction after the opening and soared $5 in the space of an hour. It can, and often does, perform similar feats on a given day, and that’s why I would rather be long a few out-of-the-money calls for cheap on expiration day than short them. The goal of these jackpot bets, which we ordinarily initiate on Friday mornings in the first hour, is to cash out half of the options in the early going for twice what we’ve paid for them, assuming the opportunity arises. If successful, that leaves us with a risk-free chance to make perhaps 5 to 10 times our money.  In practice, subscribers have done this or even better numerous times, and even when things did not go our way they were able to do no worse than break even.

I’ve included a chart that suggests that, from a purely visual standpoint, a run-up to as high as 114.80 on Friday is hardly unlikely. We don’t need that to happen to make a nice score, however, since even if BABA rallies just $1.50 or so in the early going, there will likely be an opportunity to ‘double out’ on half of our positions.  If the stock opens lower on Friday there could still be a chance to get a jackpot bet down. However, I’d suggest doing so with options of a lower strike purchased for perhaps 0.20 or less.  Don’t bet more than you are comfortable losing, since this gambit is highly speculative. My guideline is to invest no more than you would on some 20-to-1 horse that you happened to like.

$ESZ14 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2050.25)

by Rick Ackerman on November 21, 2014 3:02 am GMT

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:27.24)

by Rick Ackerman on November 20, 2014 6:17 am GMT

GDXJ’s ups and downs are in ‘dueling’ mode at the moment, alternating between bullish and bearish feints. It was mildly bullish when the stock slightly exceeded the 129.30 target shown on Tuesday. However, yesterday’s slide also exceeded a Hidden Pivot target — in this case a hidden support at 27.21.  Taken together, the action suggests that this vehicle will spend the next few days marking time in the range 28-29. The picture would brighten on a thrust exceeding 29.20 on Thursday, since that would imply more upside to at least 31.24. Alternatively, a continuation of the downtrend past 25.67 would have equally bearish implications.

$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17686)

by Rick Ackerman on November 20, 2014 3:47 am GMT

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USZ14 – December T-Bonds (Last:141^22)

by Rick Ackerman on November 17, 2014 12:06 am GMT

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$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:178.44)

by Rick Ackerman on November 12, 2014 4:20 am GMT

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$IDAH – Idaho North Resources (Last:0.1600)

by Rick Ackerman on November 5, 2014 12:01 am GMT

Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs.  CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.

Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens.  The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.

From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.

For news concerning two separate option agreements that IDAH recently signed, click here for the Green Monster property in Nye County, and here for Coeur Mining’s Klondyke properties.

$+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.3310)

by Rick Ackerman on October 28, 2014 2:47 am GMT

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Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The Hidden Pivot Webinar is one-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on Tuesday, December 16, 2014. For more information, or to register, click here.