August 1st, 2014
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The Dollar Index has blasted through key resistance at 80, threatening to “unwind” carry-traders who borrowed dollars for next to nothing in order to speculate on other assets. Chief among those assets is gold, which got savaged yesterday in a $100 selloff that seems hell-bent on testing September’s key low. The low lies at 1543, basis the Comex February contract, but we doubt that it will hold. In fact, earlier, we had told subscribers there was a 60% chance that February Gold was about to dive to at least 1459, a technical target derived from our proprietary Hidden Pivot Method.  We shall see. In any event, gold and silver –  as well as crude oil, the euro and the commodities complex– will come under heavy selling pressure if the short-squeeze picks up steam. If you’d like access our specific price targets for all of these trading vehicles in the days ahead, click here for a free trial to Rick’s Picks. » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday

Rooting for a Rally!

by Rick Ackerman on December 15, 2011 3:21 am GMT

We locked in some bear spreads in the QQQ yesterday at great prices. That leaves us in the unaccustomed position of rooting for a rally so that we can complete a bull spread in SPY. We took the first leg of that position on Tuesday at so-so-prices, but we may be able to reduce our risk to zero if stocks take a strong bounce from here.


Rick's Picks for Thursday
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QQQQ – Nasdaq ETF (Last:54.88)

by Rick Ackerman on December 15, 2011 3:17 am GMT

Near yesterday’s lows, we locked in some bearish puts spreads that carry almost no theoretical risk but which coud produce substantial gains if stocks stay weak into 2012. Specifically, we now hold two January 54-51 puts spreads for a debit of 0.07 and two January 53-50 puts spreads for a debit of 0.03.  Both positions together cost us a total of $20, but they could produce a maximum profit of $1200 if things go our way. Effectively, we have gotten 60-to-1 odds on the QQQs trading 50 or lower by January 20. We’ll do nothing further for now, but I’ll send out an alert if a sharp downdraft in the broad averages should make it advantageous to cash out before expiration. Regarding the Cubes, yesterday’s plunge exceeded a 54.87 midpoint support by a decisive 29 cents, implying that weakness will continue down to at least 52.13, its ‘D’ sibling.  Click here if you’d like to learn more about the Hidden Pivot Method, including how to identify and trade targets such as the ones used above, and to forecast trends with bold confidence.

ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1218.25)

by Rick Ackerman on December 15, 2011 3:33 am GMT

March E-Mini S&P (ESH12) price chart with targetsWe doted on the 1198.00 target during yesterday’s tutorial session, licking our chops at the prospect of getting in at a trampoline bottom. Alas, fatigued sellers were unable to push this pup any lower than 1202.50.  The downside target is still valid, as is another less promising one at 1199.75, but bottom-fishing is recommended only for those who are camouflage-equipped. If you’re not but desperate to do something, anything, you can try bidding 1195.25 with a 1.00-point stop-loss.  That’s the lowest target I can extrapolate from the 15-minute chart (see inset). _______ UPDATE (9:17 a.m. EST): I’m establishing a tracking position, since the 1198.00 target nailed the exact low of this so-far 20-point rally. Also, a couple of chat-roomers who work the graveyard shift evidently initiated positions at the low. Assuming four contracts purchased, cash out half of them here for around 1218.00.  That will give us an effective cost basis of 1178.00 for the two contracts that remain. Tie them to a 1205.75 stop-loss for now, o-c-o with an order to sell one contract at 1226.00. Hitting the low to the exact tick was a simple parlor trick that you can learn in a month. Click here if you think you’re ready to try.

GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1578.20)

by Rick Ackerman on December 15, 2011 3:45 am GMT

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SIH12 – March Silver (Last:29.070)

by Rick Ackerman on December 15, 2011 6:34 am GMT

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$GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1283.60)

by Rick Ackerman on August 1, 2014 2:30 am GMT

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$ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1927.50)

by Rick Ackerman on August 1, 2014 1:42 am GMT

Yesterday was the first time in recent memory that many of those who ‘bought the dip’ got creamed.  Traders should keep in mind that every bearish target implies a potentially profitable short with-the-trend as well as a bottom-fishing opportunity at the target.  In a bear market, the best place to initate the short will often be on the retracement rally to the midpoint pivot rather than at the conventional point ‘x’ of the downtrend.  This will hold true for the longer time frames as well.  Assuming we’ve entered a bear market, corrective rallies will tend to fail at their midpoint pivots, and ABCD downtrends to reach or exceed their ‘D’ targets.  My experience with the dot-com boom-and-crash is that heightened volatility makes swing highs and lows even more predictable than wafting rallies or sideways chop.

Concerning this vehicle, most immediately, the night shift has pushed the futures to the exact midpoint resistance (p) of  the minor abc uptrend shown. If  p holds, this would be as expected. As I’ve implied above, bear markets tend to produce corrective rallies that get no further than p. Night owls may not get much movement in off-hours trading, but the moves themselves will be more predictable and reliable than what you’re used to.

$NFLX – Netflix (Last:431.51)

by Rick Ackerman on July 28, 2014 4:32 am GMT

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As GDXJ was working its way south from around $43, my bearish forecast called for a washout low at exactly 40.42, a Hidden Pivot support of great clarity. I’d suggested buying down there ‘aggressively’ and with an ‘absurdly’ tight stop-loss.  This advice would have paid off handsomely for anyone who followed it, since the stock trampolined 64 cents yesterday off an actual low of 40.43, a penny from my target. Since a subscriber reported doing the trade as advised, I’m establishing a tracking position for the further guidance of all who may have gotten long. (He reported having bought 1000 shares off a 40.44 bid, but I’ll assume a more conservative 400 shares.)  Accordingly, I’ll recommend exiting half the position on Friday’s opening if you haven’t done so already.  We’ll impute any profits thereof to the cost basis of the 200 shares that will remain. _______ UPDATE (July 27, 9:48 p.m. ET): Exiting 200 shares on Friday’s 41.20 opening leaves us with a tracking position of 200 shares whose imputed cost basis is 39.66.  Exit another 100 shares on today’s opening and tie the rest to an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the 15-minute chart.  At the moment, that would imply bailing out on an uncorrected dive touching 41.73. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 11:46 a.m.):  We got sleazed when DaBoyz opened the stock on the so-far low  of the day, 42.40.  The good news is that such shakedowns usually occur because the smart money is trying to buy the stock.  In any event, I am tracking a 100-share position with an effective cost basis of 37.25.  For the time being, let it run. _______ UPDATE July 29, 7:23 p.m. EDT): Let’s turn the position into a covered write if GDXJ slips beneath 42.25 today (see inset, a new chart).  Specifically, you should short one August 16th 41 call for each hundred shares you own. Don’t simply bang out a sale on the bid when the stock hits 42.24, since you could get clipped for as much as 0.20-0.25 on the spread that way.  Instead, you should be deliberate and relaxed about the short sale of the call, since we are in the catbird’s seat and have little to lose by taking in some option premium at this point.  Shoot for a price midway between the bid and offer, and don’t rule out the possibility that GDXJ could snap back above 42.25 even in the process of breaking down. _______ UPDATE (July 30, 2:32 p.m.): _______ UPDATE (2:30 p.m. EDT):  I’ve yet to hear from anyone, but a ‘relaxed’ short could have been done anywhere between 2.03 and a current bid/offer of 2.45/2.90.  I’ll use a cost basis 2.55, about midway between, unless I hear otherwise.

$+PCLN – Priceline (Last:1238.98)

by Rick Ackerman on July 24, 2014 12:54 am GMT

A subscriber reported success yesterday legging into the 1340/50/60 August 16 call butterfly that I’d advised. He did so 32 times at no cost, as suggested, but it took a $10 move in the stock between legs to get filled so advantageously. His maximum profit would be $32,000  with the stock trading at 1350 come August 16.  Since he owns the position without cost, no loss is possible even if PCLN should all to zero or rally to $1000. We’ll do nothing further for now, but I’d suggest that those of you who were unable to buy the spread keep trying.  We’ll shoot for a partial profit if the stock rallies $40-$50 in the next few weeks but otherwise do nothing further. I’ve reproduced a chart that shows why our expectation of a $120 rally from current levels, to a 1358.18 Hidden Pivot target, is not exactly farfetched.  To that end, a pop above the 1270.59 midpoint pivot would be most encouraging. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 7:46 p.m. EDT): Yesterday another subscriber reported legging into ‘free’ butterfly spreads as suggested. Keep trying for at least one more day if you haven’t yet acquired a stake, since the spread will remain cheap as long as PCLN doesn’t blast off.

$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:115.40)

by Rick Ackerman on July 23, 2014 5:36 am GMT

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$EURUSD – Euro/USD (Last:1.33950)

by Rick Ackerman on July 23, 2014 12:01 am GMT

I haven’t tracked currencies that closely, but because they tend to move very precisely to Hidden Pivot targets, traders should consider exploiting them whenever possible. Notice how EUR/USD has broken beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1.34841 after noodling around near that pivot for a few hours on Thursday. This suggests that it is bound for D=1.34197, at least.  You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks.  Notice as well that there are two slightly higher possibilities for point ‘A’.  The correction targets they yield lie, respectively, at 1.34114 and, worst case, 1.33992.  I expect these numbers to work very precisely, so use them in whatever way suits you best.  Note as well that a last-gasp rally to p=1.34738 after EUR/USD has fallen a bit would be short-able. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 5:35 p.m. EDT):  Yesterday’s short-squeeze feint topped precisely at a midpoint Hidden Pivot (see inset, a new chart) that was originally support but which is now resistance. This price action confirms the pattern we’ve chosen as well as its ‘D’ target at 1.34197. At least one subscriber has confirmed getting short in the chat room.  _______ UPDATE (July 27, 10:43 p.m.):  Friday’s low occurred at 1.34206 — 0.00009 above our 1.34197 target.  Shorts should have covered there, but if you were able to bottom-fish the low and catch a piece of the 144-tick rally that ensued, please let me know in the chat room and so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (July 30, 2:43 p.m.): The futures have breached the lowest of the targets I’d provide from the lesser charts. This implies that a bigger-picture target at 1.32091 is in play. The chart(see inset, a new one) shows this.

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The Dollar Index turned higher yesterday an inch from a correction target that had been three weeks in coming (see inset). This portends a bullish change for the intermediate term.  The actual target is 79.74, and there is always a chance it will be breached. If so, there’s an alternative target at 79.62, but if it fails as well, especially without a fight, the implication would be more slippage to as low as  78.91, where a key low recorded in early May would thereupon beg to be tested. _______ UPDATE (11:17 p.m. EDT): Yesterday’s low occurred at 79.74 exactly. If the dollar is about to reverse and move higher, it will have to happen here, and now. _______ UPDATE (July 9, 2:33 a.m. ET): The dollar rallied strongly for a few days, but it is still not out of the woods because the move narrowly failed to clear an important ‘external’ peak at 80.38 recorded on 6/26. _______ UPDATE (July 16, 6:55 p.m.): DXY came within an inch of a clear and important Hidden Pivot rally target at 80.60 yesterday (see inset, a new chart). However, it will have to push past it to imply that the rally from the July 1 low (which had been predicted to-the-penny) is more than just a flash-in-the-pan. _______ UPDATE (July 30, 2:53 p.m.): 81.85, here we come!! (See inset, a new chart.)


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