November 21st, 2014
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Weekly Commentary

U.S. stocks showed unbridled enthusiasm yesterday for the changing of the guard in North Korea, tacking 337 points onto the Dow Industrial Average. Could heir apparent Kim Jong Eun be the Man of Peace the world has been waiting for?  It sure looked that way on Wall Street, where a wave of optimism about something fabulous swamped sellers from the opening bell. Even if the young Kim – reportedly a huge basketball fan like his dad —  merely slows North Korea’s mischievous transfer of nuclear weapons technology to Iran’s mullahs, jihadists and terrorists around the world, it would be the best Christmas present our crisis-fatigued planet could receive. Small wonder, then, that North Koreans were sobbing in the streets as they grieved the loss of their Dear Leader.  And very dear he must have been, to judge from the tens of thousands of mourners who lined up for hours to pay their respects as Kim Jong Il lay in state, ensconced in a glass-covered coffin. Was he smiling when he died?  We couldn’t tell looking at the picture below, although we won’t be surprised if a future biographer reveals that Kim, who’s name means “regal hill,” was a world-class kibitzer in private. » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday

Gold and Silver futures are in uptrends Tuesday night that could generate opportune ‘buy’ signals. To assist you in getting aboard with as little risk as possible, I’ve sketched out detailed scenarios that show how these trends might be traded.


Rick's Picks for Wednesday
$ = Actionable Advice + = Open Position
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DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:12104)

by Rick Ackerman on December 21, 2011 4:51 am GMT

Dow Industrial Average (DJIA) price chart with targetsShould I mention that yesterday’s 337-point rally was not impulsive on the larger intraday charts? Check out the 240-minute bars if you don’t believe me. Another measly 31 points would have done the job, but it looks like the panic-stricken shorts who powered yesterday’s wilding spree just didn’t have it in them.  My hunch is that the rally will prove to have been a one-and-a-half-day wonder after bears have done their puking Wednesday morning. Still, because the daily chart actually is impulsively bullish, we’ll have to treat the expected pullback with the same deference today’s commentary has accorded Kim Jong Il.  Allowing for the most bullish scenario I could possible see over the next eight trading days, my maximum rally target would be 12760, subject to midpoint interference at 12248.

ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1229.00)

by Rick Ackerman on December 21, 2011 5:06 am GMT

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GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1615.20)

by Rick Ackerman on December 21, 2011 5:28 am GMT

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SIH12 – March Silver (Last:29.470)

by Rick Ackerman on December 21, 2011 5:42 am GMT

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$+BABA – Alibaba (Last:110.10)

by Rick Ackerman on November 21, 2014 3:32 am GMT

Based on my chat room post late in Thursday’s session, subscribers were able to stake out some small ‘Jackpot Bets,’ buying expiring calls at the 112 and 113 strikes for as little, respectively, as 0.21 and 0.15.  The latter options traded for as little as 0.10 yesterday before rocketing to 1.00 when Bahh-Bahh found traction after the opening and soared $5 in the space of an hour. It can, and often does, perform similar feats on a given day, and that’s why I would rather be long a few out-of-the-money calls for cheap on expiration day than short them. The goal of these jackpot bets, which we ordinarily initiate on Friday mornings in the first hour, is to cash out half of the options in the early going for twice what we’ve paid for them, assuming the opportunity arises. If successful, that leaves us with a risk-free chance to make perhaps 5 to 10 times our money.  In practice, subscribers have done this or even better numerous times, and even when things did not go our way they were able to do no worse than break even.

I’ve included a chart that suggests that, from a purely visual standpoint, a run-up to as high as 114.80 on Friday is hardly unlikely. We don’t need that to happen to make a nice score, however, since even if BABA rallies just $1.50 or so in the early going, there will likely be an opportunity to ‘double out’ on half of our positions.  If the stock opens lower on Friday there could still be a chance to get a jackpot bet down. However, I’d suggest doing so with options of a lower strike purchased for perhaps 0.20 or less.  Don’t bet more than you are comfortable losing, since this gambit is highly speculative. My guideline is to invest no more than you would on some 20-to-1 horse that you happened to like.

$ESZ14 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2050.25)

by Rick Ackerman on November 21, 2014 3:02 am GMT

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:27.24)

by Rick Ackerman on November 20, 2014 6:17 am GMT

GDXJ’s ups and downs are in ‘dueling’ mode at the moment, alternating between bullish and bearish feints. It was mildly bullish when the stock slightly exceeded the 129.30 target shown on Tuesday. However, yesterday’s slide also exceeded a Hidden Pivot target — in this case a hidden support at 27.21.  Taken together, the action suggests that this vehicle will spend the next few days marking time in the range 28-29. The picture would brighten on a thrust exceeding 29.20 on Thursday, since that would imply more upside to at least 31.24. Alternatively, a continuation of the downtrend past 25.67 would have equally bearish implications.

$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17686)

by Rick Ackerman on November 20, 2014 3:47 am GMT

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USZ14 – December T-Bonds (Last:141^22)

by Rick Ackerman on November 17, 2014 12:06 am GMT

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$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:178.44)

by Rick Ackerman on November 12, 2014 4:20 am GMT

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$IDAH – Idaho North Resources (Last:0.1600)

by Rick Ackerman on November 5, 2014 12:01 am GMT

Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs.  CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.

Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens.  The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.

From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.

For news concerning two separate option agreements that IDAH recently signed, click here for the Green Monster property in Nye County, and here for Coeur Mining’s Klondyke properties.

$+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.3310)

by Rick Ackerman on October 28, 2014 2:47 am GMT

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