Wednesday, December 21, 2011

SIH12 – March Silver (Last:29.470)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The rally broke through a minor midpoint resistance at 29.410 around mid-morning, shortening the odds of a follow-through burst to its 'D' sibling at 30.135. The best low-risk buying opportunity night owls are likely to see would come following a b-c pullback from between peaks #1 and #2, or #2 and #3. Take the trade if you can whittle theoretical entry risk down to $60 per contract or less. _______ UPDATE (8:44 a.m.  EST): There was camouflage to be had, and although the trade could have produced again of as much as $3975, the joy-ride would have been short-lived, since the futures relapsed a whopping $1.08 overnight.  For your interest, the entry pattern used the single-bar coordinates, on the 5-minute chart, A=29.720, B=29.895, C-=29.750, for X=29.795, p=29.840, and D=29.925.  The hypothetical $3975 profit assumes four contracts bought at X, with the last one disgorged at the overnight top, 30.210. The profit would have been far less -- $1650 -- if you'd exited, not at the top, but on an impulse-leg stop-loss at 29.745.

GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1615.20)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Buyers could have an excellent opportunity to get long via camouflage using the price points shown and the subtle ABC pattern thereof. Buy one contract using a buy-stop at the still-undetermined 'x', but step it up to four contracts if you're able to use 'camo' in a pattern of lesser degree with theoretical entry risk of $70 or less. If things play out close to how I've drawn them, I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _____ UPDATE (10:30 a.m. EST): If you'd drilled down to the 5-minute chart when the futures, at around 4 a.m., first exceeded the 1635.20 'external' peak shown in the chart, you could have caught a ride with perfect camo on the pattern A=1631.60, B=1636.30 and C=1633.10. Entering at x=1634.30 and taking a partial profit on half the position at p=1635.50 would have left you with two contracts and an effective cost basis of 1633.10, with a further reduction to 1628.40 after exiting a third contract at D=1637.80.  Thereafter, you were on your own, but if you'd stopped yourself out of the final contract by waiting for a bearish impulse leg on the 5-minute chart, you'd have exited the position at 1633.00 for a theoretical gain of $460. More profits were not to be, at least not from the long side, since DaBoyz pulled out the rug after the not atypical, sleazy, overnight top-and-relapse price action that followed. Unfortunately, and unlike what has occurred in the index futures, this selloff is happening without having created a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Buyers could have done so with just a little bit more oomph, but as things stand, the high-water mark missed exceeding December 13's key high at 1645.50 by 2.20. NOw, short-term bulls could regain their mojo with a push exceeding

ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1229.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Yesterday's monster rally fell just shy of the 1240.00 target I disseminated in a morning update, but if the futures break loose today and close above it, that would augur more upside to as high as 1284.25 (aka 'D') over the near term. Our trading bias would be aggressively bullish above 1240.00, but camouflage opportunities derived from the hourly chart may be limited. At present, the best of them would seem to lie in the 1233.75 peak highlighted in the chart. A 'b-c' pullback from a few ticks above it would offer a buying opportunity that shouldn't be passed up if the standard 'camo' conditions are met. I've sketched this out hypothetically for your further guidance and will provide a tracking position if things play out more or less as imagined. _______ UPDATE (10:08 a.m.EST):  There were no subtle camouflage opportunities such as the one I'd drawn, since DaBoyz greedily squeezed shorts for all they were worth overnight, creating a too-obvious impulse leg in the process. It is still valid, by the way (60m, A=1195.50 on 12/19, and B=1249.00, C=?), so bears shouldn't get their hopes too high merely because stocks are falling this morning.  A 13.50-point upthrust now from anywhere north of 1215.50 should be viewed as the possible start of a much bigger move with 40 points of additional potential. Camouflageurs should plan accordingly.

DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:12104)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Should I mention that yesterday's 337-point rally was not impulsive on the larger intraday charts? Check out the 240-minute bars if you don't believe me. Another measly 31 points would have done the job, but it looks like the panic-stricken shorts who powered yesterday's wilding spree just didn't have it in them.  My hunch is that the rally will prove to have been a one-and-a-half-day wonder after bears have done their puking Wednesday morning. Still, because the daily chart actually is impulsively bullish, we'll have to treat the expected pullback with the same deference today's commentary has accorded Kim Jong Il.  Allowing for the most bullish scenario I could possible see over the next eight trading days, my maximum rally target would be 12760, subject to midpoint interference at 12248.

Prospect of World Peace Sends Stocks Soaring

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

U.S. stocks showed unbridled enthusiasm yesterday for the changing of the guard in North Korea, tacking 337 points onto the Dow Industrial Average. Could heir apparent Kim Jong Eun be the Man of Peace the world has been waiting for?  It sure looked that way on Wall Street, where a wave of optimism about something fabulous swamped sellers from the opening bell. Even if the young Kim – reportedly a huge basketball fan like his dad --  merely slows North Korea’s mischievous transfer of nuclear weapons technology to Iran’s mullahs, jihadists and terrorists around the world, it would be the best Christmas present our crisis-fatigued planet could receive. Small wonder, then, that North Koreans were sobbing in the streets as they grieved the loss of their Dear Leader.  And very dear he must have been, to judge from the tens of thousands of mourners who lined up for hours to pay their respects as Kim Jong Il lay in state, ensconced in a glass-covered coffin. Was he smiling when he died?  We couldn’t tell looking at the picture below, although we won’t be surprised if a future biographer reveals that Kim, who’s name means “regal hill,” was a world-class kibitzer in private. A few churlish newscasters said the distraught mourners looked like they were putting on an act. But then, the network anchors have always had it in for the Kims, especially after Richard Nixon died in 1994 and left them with a large surplus of loathing and revulsion to expend. North Korea’s leaders were bound to be a target of their opprobrium, given the Kim dynasty’s well-known penchant for cute girls, Cuban cigars and Remy. Granted, most of North Korea’s citizens are lucky to get 500 calories of food in a given day. But is that any reason to