August 23rd, 2014
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U.S. stocks showed unbridled enthusiasm yesterday for the changing of the guard in North Korea, tacking 337 points onto the Dow Industrial Average. Could heir apparent Kim Jong Eun be the Man of Peace the world has been waiting for?  It sure looked that way on Wall Street, where a wave of optimism about something fabulous swamped sellers from the opening bell. Even if the young Kim – reportedly a huge basketball fan like his dad —  merely slows North Korea’s mischievous transfer of nuclear weapons technology to Iran’s mullahs, jihadists and terrorists around the world, it would be the best Christmas present our crisis-fatigued planet could receive. Small wonder, then, that North Koreans were sobbing in the streets as they grieved the loss of their Dear Leader.  And very dear he must have been, to judge from the tens of thousands of mourners who lined up for hours to pay their respects as Kim Jong Il lay in state, ensconced in a glass-covered coffin. Was he smiling when he died?  We couldn’t tell looking at the picture below, although we won’t be surprised if a future biographer reveals that Kim, who’s name means “regal hill,” was a world-class kibitzer in private. » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday

Gold and Silver futures are in uptrends Tuesday night that could generate opportune ‘buy’ signals. To assist you in getting aboard with as little risk as possible, I’ve sketched out detailed scenarios that show how these trends might be traded.


Rick's Picks for Wednesday
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DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:12104)

by Rick Ackerman on December 21, 2011 4:51 am GMT

Dow Industrial Average (DJIA) price chart with targetsShould I mention that yesterday’s 337-point rally was not impulsive on the larger intraday charts? Check out the 240-minute bars if you don’t believe me. Another measly 31 points would have done the job, but it looks like the panic-stricken shorts who powered yesterday’s wilding spree just didn’t have it in them.  My hunch is that the rally will prove to have been a one-and-a-half-day wonder after bears have done their puking Wednesday morning. Still, because the daily chart actually is impulsively bullish, we’ll have to treat the expected pullback with the same deference today’s commentary has accorded Kim Jong Il.  Allowing for the most bullish scenario I could possible see over the next eight trading days, my maximum rally target would be 12760, subject to midpoint interference at 12248.

ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1229.00)

by Rick Ackerman on December 21, 2011 5:06 am GMT

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GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1615.20)

by Rick Ackerman on December 21, 2011 5:28 am GMT

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SIH12 – March Silver (Last:29.470)

by Rick Ackerman on December 21, 2011 5:42 am GMT

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$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:100.57)

by Rick Ackerman on August 21, 2014 3:16 am GMT

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:116.20)

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2014 4:59 am GMT

Subscribers are working two bullish calendar spreads (x16), but I would suggest increasing the size of the position if TLT corrects down to the 115.18 target  shown.   For now , we are long September 20 118 calls against short August 19 118 calls that we will roll into August 29 calls this Thursday and Friday.  We’ve already done the roll twice, reducing the cost basis of the spread to 0.04. This week’s roll will entail covering (buying back) the short calls and shorting a like number of August 29 calls, effectively selling the August 22 118/August 29 118 calendar spread.

It was marked on Tuesday at 0.17, off a 0.26 offer, but any price higher than 0.04 will effectively turn the position we’ll have  – long the Sept 20 118/August 29 118 calendar — into a credit spread.  This means we can’t lose – will make a profit no matter what TLT does.  Ideally, come September 20 , TLT will be sitting at 118, our spread will be trading for around 0.50, and we’ll be carrying it for a credit of perhaps 0.50.  The imputed profit would be  $1600 — not bad, considering our risk is already close to zero.

My long-term outlook for T-Bonds is very bullish, a view that goes sharply against a consensus which clings to the belief that interest rates – and the stock market — can only go up.  That is a bet we should be eager to fade. We may have a chance to do so at still better odds if T-Bonds continue to  sell off  on the manufactured idea that the Jackson Hole conference will open the floodgates for more stimulus and inflation. _______ UPDATE (10:38 a.m.):  The Sep 20/Aug xx calendar spread is recommended at this point only for those who did the original spread, since there’s not enough time left on it to roll its cost basis down to zero or less (i.e., a credit). If you are new to the spread, try buying the Nov 20/August 29 calendar for 0.90 with TLT trading around 115.80.  The spread has a delta value of 0.20, implying that being long one spread is equivalent to being long 20 shares of stock.  This means that, using a spread price of 0.90 as a benchmark, you should adjust the price you pay for it by one penny, up or down, for each 5 cents that TLT moves away from 115.80.

$SIU14 – September Silver (Last:19.615)

by Rick Ackerman on August 19, 2014 2:02 am GMT

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$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:168.82)

by Rick Ackerman on August 19, 2014 1:50 am GMT

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$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:26.58)

by Rick Ackerman on August 7, 2014 4:58 am GMT

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