As last week ended, one might have believed Wall Street investors had just about everything wrong. Stocks were up sharply on bullish payroll news that flatly contradicted something every American knows – i.e., that the Great Recession is still very much with us; T-bonds were getting whacked on the flimsy assumption that the economy is picking up strength; and gold and silver were under attack because, well, because all was right with the world. Even the hacks and scribblers who bring us the news did their bit to feed Friday’s feel-good binge. For one, there was nary a discouraging word on the Web’s main news pages about Greece and its slow-motion bankruptcy – only a story about how Europeans were working diligently to protect the homeless from a cold snap. And the left-tilting L.A. Times, thinking wishfully, weighed in with the most fatuous story of the day: an analysis piece saying that the payroll numbers could prove to be a turning point in Obama’s reelection year — the day when he shifted from slight underdog to favorite. » Read the full article
With the E-Mini S&Ps and April Gold both somewhat lower Sunday, it would appear that they have been resynchronizing. My outlook for both is bullish, although it looks like they could use a day or two of rest before attempting another leg up.
The news media have gotten revved up about a possible pre-emptive strike by Israel on Iran’s A-bomb facilities, but if it were imminent crude would be warning us by moving higher rather than lower (just as it did, mysteriously, two months before the U.S. invasion of Iraq). So that we can tune out the hysterical noise, we’ll want to keep close tabs on the March contract by setting a screen alert at 103, somewhat below December’s high, to warn of an impending conflagration. Incidentally, Rick’s Picks subscribers receive real-time alerts about such things. Want to try a free trial subscription? Click here.
The market has gone ornery and untradable on us, presumably because everyone and his mother is going at it with the same idea of getting short. Although yesterday’s forecast here got the trend right and even nailed the intraday high, 1902.50, to the exact tick, the prediction was valueless for trading purposes. That’s because the ratcheting, exceedingly tedious rally generated a string of minor corrections that were equal to or greater than each subsequent leg up. Not exactly the risk:reward proposition we are looking for. I proffered a still higher target at 1911.00 if 1902.50 was exceeded, which it has been in after-hours trading. Night owls can use their own judgment to determine how to catch the implied ride north, but I wouldn’t look for easy pickings if there’s still a few points left in the move at Tuesday’s opening bell.
There were no reports to confirm a price in the chat room, but I’ll use a 0.72 cost basis for four Nov 22 39-strike calls I’d recommending buying yesterday. It is not a healthy sign that JNK closed beneath the 39.40 target, albeit only by a few cents. Based on the earlier tout, you should stop yourself out of the calls if they trade for 0.57. ______ UPDATE (October 14, 7:35 p.m. EDT): JNK has taken a modest bounce from the targeted low, but the calls remain leaden. Stick to the 0.57 stop-loss, which is intended to limit the theoretical loss from this play to $60. You should make the stop-loss o-c-o (one-order-cancels-the-other) with an offer to sell two of the calls currently held for 1.40, effectively zeroing out risk. Obviously, it will take a sustained, powerful rally to get the offer filled. _______ UPDATE (October 16, 12:46 a.m.): We’ll back away for now, since I’d rather be shorting this flying pig when it’s airborne rather than emerging from a wallow.
I first touted Snipp Interactive back in January, when it was trading around 0.15. Although the stock subsequently fell to a dime, it has since rallied sharply, settling at 0.2562 yesterday. This is one of my favorite stocks, and I came away from a conference call with its CEO, Atul Sabharwal, eager to sing their praises. During that call, I hit Atul with my best idea, a sweepstakes-type promotion, but he was already three steps ahead of me, able to cite, for one, New York State’s rules and costs for exactly the type of marketing scheme I’d suggested.
Full disclosure: I hold 100,000 shares plus warrants to purchase another 50,000 shares. But I hope that won’t discourage you from performing your own due diligence, since you are likely to be as impressed as I was when you find out what the company has been up to. For me, at least, Snipp (OTC: SNIPF) perfectly satisfies Peter Lynch’s rule that investors favor companies whose strengths and methods they can understand. Snipp does interactive marketing that allows clients to track results in real time. The results have been sufficiently impressive that the company has been attracting blue chip clients with little difficulty. Read more about SNIPP by clicking here.
From a technical standpoint, although the stock’s chart history is thin, it’s possible to project a near-term rally target of 0.2730. A tenet of Hidden Pivot analysis is that an easy move through such targeted resistance implies there is unspent buying power percolating beneath the surface. This is not a “hot tip;” indeed, Snipp’s story does not lend itself to the kind of hubris that will result in a $10 billion IPO. But it is an aggressive and imaginative pioneer in a rapidly developing niche, and its CEO has the kind of imagination, intelligence and energy that inspires confidence. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:30 p.m.): The stock has continued to rally, and the closest Hidden Pivot target is now 0.2668. If that Hidden Pivot is exceeded on a closing basis for two days, however, a target at 0.3474 would be in play. _______ UPDATE (Sep 23): Snipp has entered the Brazilian market via an exclusive marketing contract with Petrobas. Click here for the news release. ______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 1:57 p.m. EDT): The stock has gone bonkers today, up six cents to within less than a penny of the 0.3474 target projected two days ago. _______ UPDATE (October 12, 9:20 p.m.): The stock has come down hard after peaking three weeks ago at 0.34, but I view the move as a corrective opportunity to accumulate more shares.