Friday, February 10, 2012

I'll repeat what I said during yesterday's online impromptu session: Ignore this headless chicken for now, since it's just a jumble of impulse legs on the intraday charts that are meant to screw with your head. A bull trend dominates nonetheless, and it could get the futures to 1826.30 (see inset) if and when the 1769.50 Hidden Pivot midpoint associated with that number gives way.  More immediately, a close below a downtrending 'p' at 1729.20 could augur more corrective action to as low as 1703.00.

We can't be pleased that the most recent rally cycle, which peaked last Thursday at 30.55, failed by just 0.22 points to surpass an important 'external' high at  30.76 recorded on December 2. That could of course be remedied with a strong upthrust in the days ahead, but before we break out the bubbly let's insist that bulls conquer yet another 'external' peak for good measure --   the 32.61 high notched on November 11.  More immediately, I'd look for a bullish turn from 27.71, the 'D' target of the correction begun from 30.55 last Thursday. On the 30-minute chart, the coordinates are A=30.55, B=28.65 (Feb 7) and C=29.61 (Feb 7).

Poring over the weekly chart during yesterday's impromptu session, we found evidence for optimism about the health of HUI's long-term bull trend. For some very specific details about this, I would recommend viewing the last ten or so minutes of the recording posted below, Bullish Look at HUI Gold Bugs Index.  The recording has been posted so that it is accessible not only to subscribers but also to those who follow commentary here casually. Besides the material concerning the HUI, the recording contains real-time analysis of the E-Mini S&P, Comex Gold and Apple (which, by the way, looks like it will continue to rampage for a long time to come). Click here to find out how you can become a 'Pivoteer'.

A 1353.00 target that I'd drum-rolled here precisely contained the spike top of yesterday's opening-hour short-squeeze, but I have my doubts it will hold for long.  For one, when we looked at ES's intraday charts during yesterday's impromptu trading session (recorded and viewable below), we discovered that the retracement abc's were not reaching their midpoint pivots. And for two, bears will still have to face a firing squad when details of Greece's latest, phony bailout hit the tape after a vote this weekend.  Because the 1353.00 target was several weeks in coming, we might expect it to repel bulls for perhaps 3-4 days if stocks are bound still higher. But if ithe Hidden Pivot is obliterated just one day after first being touched, I would take that as a sign that DaBoyz are planning to move this market significantly higher. Although I provided guidance yesterday for subscribers who mentioned in that chat room that they'd gotten short, I did not establish an "official" tracking position because it would have been impossible to get short using 'camouflage' as I'd advised.  I'll suggest nothing further for today, but if the futures blow past 1353.00, the next Hidden Pivot with potential stopping power lies at 1362.50.  This number comes off the daily chart, and although the A-B impulse leg is less than stellar, the target itself should be considered good enough for government work. _______ UPDATE (2:01 p.m.):  That 1353.00 target is holding up better than I'd expected, what with the news that all has not been made to appear hunky-dory in Europe.  Hard to tell why the agreement on Greece is stalled, but it still seems like a bad bet that They are going to let the country go down in flames.  It is not Greece They care about, of course, but

[I'm running this commentary for a second day because of the high-minded discussion it has elicited.  Please be aware that an announcement next week concerning the latest bailout for Greece would probably generate a short-squeeze rally on Wall Street, much as it has a dozen times before.  Be that as it may, a potentially important target at 1353.00 that I'd flagged here for the E-Mini S&Ps has held thus far, the futures having spiked in the opening hour yesterday to...1352.75.  In other trading notes, a rally target for Bank of America shares was bullishly exceeded, although two more important ones remain: 13085 for the Dow -- a longstanding objective of ours;  and 119.91 for Goldman Sachs. Taken together, the prospect of simultaneous tops in so many bellwethers suggests that an important trend change could be imminent.  Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick's Picks if you'd like to keep abreast of further developments in real time. RA] The financial world is on pins and needles as "investors" await Europe’s latest, quasi-momentous decision on the fate of Greece. The Greeks themselves, no fools, were a step ahead of the politicians and bankers, rioting in the streets.  Many of them have probably imbibed enough austerity to last a lifetime. Keep tightening one’s belt a notch at a time and eventually you’re left with two bloody torso halves. Not that the bankers would mind the mess as long as they get paid. So what, actually is at stake in this latest chapter of the eurobailoutpalooza? The rescue package under discussion amounts to a piddling €130 billion, and we can’t see how it’s going to make much of a difference. Even if it’s only intended to buy a little time, a sum as meager as that may not see the Eurocrisis through