January 30th, 2015
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Weekly Commentary

[I'm running this commentary for a second day because of the high-minded discussion it has elicited.  Please be aware that an announcement next week concerning the latest bailout for Greece would probably generate a short-squeeze rally on Wall Street, much as it has a dozen times before.  Be that as it may, a potentially important target at 1353.00 that I'd flagged here for the E-Mini S&Ps has held thus far, the futures having spiked in the opening hour yesterday to...1352.75.  In other trading notes, a rally target for Bank of America shares was bullishly exceeded, although two more important ones remain: 13085 for the Dow -- a longstanding objective of ours;  and 119.91 for Goldman Sachs. Taken together, the prospect of simultaneous tops in so many bellwethers suggests that an important trend change could be imminent.  Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick's Picks if you'd like to keep abreast of further developments in real time. RA]

The financial world is on pins and needles as “investors” await Europe’s latest, quasi-momentous decision on the fate of Greece. The Greeks themselves, no fools, were a step ahead of the politicians and bankers, rioting in the streets.  Many of them have probably imbibed enough austerity to last a lifetime. Keep tightening one’s belt a notch at a time and eventually you’re left with two bloody torso halves. Not that the bankers would mind the mess as long as they get paid. So what, actually is at stake in this latest chapter of the eurobailoutpalooza? The rescue package under discussion amounts to a piddling €130 billion, and we can’t see how it’s going to make much of a difference. Even if it’s only intended to buy a little time, a sum as meager as that may not see the Eurocrisis through the weekend, much less through 2012.  For perspective, Flint, Michigan’s unfunded retirement and health benefits total about three times as much. Is Flint in worse shape than Greece? Hard to say, although the close proximity of such charming resorts as Corfu and Rhodos, as opposed to beautiful downtown Detroit, would seem to tip the quality-of-life numbers in favor of the Greeks, even the down-and-out day-trippers. » Read the full article


Thought for Today

Sunday Night Shenanigans

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2012 2:13 am GMT

The euro’s chart looks more bullish than the U.S. dollar’s at the moment, suggesting that the latest deal to keep Greece afloat has passed muster with the global banking establishment.  Index futures are up as well, but only by enough — six points — to imply DaBoyz are more interested in distributing stocks than buying them tonight. See you in the morning!


Rick's Picks for Monday
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ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1347.25)

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2012 6:44 am GMT

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GCJ12 – April Gold (Last:1730.70)

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2012 7:00 am GMT

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ECH12 – March Euro (Last:1.3251)

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2012 7:49 am GMT

March Euro (ECH12) price chart with targetsThe euro’s daily chart looks more bullish than the dollar’s at the moment, implying that Greece’s latest resuscitation will pass muster where it matters most — i.e., in the make-believe world of global finance. Even so, the futures can’t afford to stall for more than a few days lest they lose the considerable momentum that will be needed to surmount the 1.3296 ‘external’ peak recorded on December 8.  That’s what it will take to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the daily chart and to sustain the illusion that Europe is somehow muddling through its debt crisis. Click here for details concerning the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar, where you can learn to do this stuff yourself.

SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:35.88)

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2012 8:13 am GMT

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$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:22.25)

by Rick Ackerman on January 30, 2015 4:02 am GMT

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$+ESH15 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:2015.75)

by Rick Ackerman on January 30, 2015 2:56 am GMT

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$TLT – 20+ Year Treasurys (Last:136.77)

by Rick Ackerman on January 29, 2015 6:00 am GMT

I’ve been hell-of-bullish on Treasury Bonds for quite a while, but a subscriber asked me yesterday whether there was a price at which I would short them.  In fact, there are some major targets above where both T-Bond futures and this ETF vehicle would become enticing shorts. Specifically, I am using a 164^08 projection for T-Bond futures that lies 8.6% above the current 151^04; and in TLT, a 145.25 target that is 6.8% above current levels. Despite the discrepancy, I will treat each separately for trading purposes. and I’m also sticking with a 1.74% forecast for long-term interest rates. That projection is based on the long-term T-Bond chart itself, not on a derivative instrument such as TLT or TLH.  For your further trading guidance, let me repeat that I expect both TLT and TLH to pull back when the former hits 138.42, a Hidden Pivot resistance of intermediate importance that could be achieved within the next few days.

$+JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:39.02)

by Rick Ackerman on January 29, 2015 5:07 am GMT

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$+CLH15 – March Crude (Last:44.52)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 5:34 am GMT

The futures are banging on a 44.12 Hidden Pivot support that they last visited on January 13. We won’t presume as to whether the support will hold this time around, but if it gives way the 41.00 target of a lesser downtrend (see inset) would be in play. Traders will have to sort out the opportunities in real time, but I’d suggest using a chart of 5-minute degree or less to generate an actionable ‘camouflage’ pattern. If you prefer the simpler method of a ‘mechanical’ entry, a short from 46.36 can be used, stop 48.15.  This is significantly more risk that we are used to taking when trading this vehicle, since swing highs and lows on the very lesser charts can usually be predicted with 10 to 20 cents.  Under the circumstances, I’d suggest holding position size down to a single contract unless you use ‘camouflage’. _______ UPDATE (1:42 p.m.): Just posted in the chat room: The recent high at 46.41 was bullishly impulsive, so shorts initiated at 46.36 as I’d advised should be tied to a short tether — i.e., a stop-loss that will leave you with at least a small profit no matter what. If you are short multiple contracts, half should be covered here for around 45.69, for a gain of about $670 per contract. If you prefer an impulsive stop, the 3-minute chart would pop you out of the trade on an uncorrected rally exceeding 46.14. _______ UPDATE (11:34 p.m.): The futures have plummeted $1.41 from within a nickel of where I’d suggested getting short.  The trade could have been worth as much $1360 per contract, but if you still hold a position I’ll recommend tying it to an impulsive stop-loss on the 5-minute chart. At the moment, that would imply stopping yourself out of the short if the futures thrust above 45.58 without correcting.  Please let me know in the chat room if you hold a position, since I can provide a tracking position for you further guidance.______ UPDATE (January 29, 9:44 p.m.): And still no change! The futures have continued to bang on the 44.12 ‘hidden’ support without breaking it decisively. If and when it gives way, look for a continuation of the bear market down to at least 41.00.

$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:26.60)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 12:01 am GMT

The rally begun in late December appears to be faltering, since the last two upthrusts failed to exceed some important ‘external’ peaks.  In healthy bull markets this is what we should expect, and it was in fact a feature of GDXJ’s rally until two weeks ago. On January 13, however, the culmination of a three-day upthrust produced a high at 29.63 that failed by 16 cents to exceed mid-November’s 29.78 peak. The stock subsequently pulled back for a day to get some running room, and although the rally that ensued was good for a 15% gain, at its high it failed by a whopping 25 cents to surpass an ‘external’ high at 30.98 recorded on October 28.  This is timid action at best, and it implies that bulls will either have to pick up the pace or take the path of least resistance and head lower. Most immediately, to get back into gear buyers would need to generate an explosive impulse leg exceeding early October’s 34.82 peak. Were that to occur, it would be persuasive on the matter of whether the rally is for real or just a flash-in-the-pan.  More immediately, GDXJ looks like it will correct down to at least 26.24, a Hidden Pivot support (15-min, a=30.14 on 1/22)  that can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as a nickel. _______ UPDATE (January 29, 9:25 p.m.): Hidden Pivot supports aside, traders were obviously focused on the January 8 low at 25.91 as yesterday’s selloff unfolded.  This ’structural support’ held, but only by a nickel. Now, if it fails, that would add to the imputed power of the bearish impulse leg begun from Tuesday’s 29.50 high. The rosiest scenario we might envision would be for GDXJ to instead generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, a feat that would require a thrust to 30.15 over the next 2-3 days.

$HGH15 – March Copper (Last:2.5485)

by Rick Ackerman on January 15, 2015 4:24 am GMT

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+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.4410)

by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2014 3:16 am GMT

I first recommended this stock in early September after being very impressed with a presentation by its CEO, Atul Sabharwal. The company provides mobile marketing solutions to a growing list of clients that includes Wal-Mart, ESPN, Lexus, Taco Bell, Target, Johnson & Johnson and Minute Maid.  Snipp’s shares are listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX: SPN) and on the OTC in the U.S. (symbol: SNIPF), but yesterday it filed with the SEC for an exchange listing in the U.S.  From a technical standpoint, SNIPF looks to be basing for a move to as high as 0.4385. First, though, it would need to trip a buy signal at 0.2878, then to clear the 0.3380 midpoint pivot (see inset).  The company continues to win new business at a rapid clip, and that’s why I expect the earnings report due out November 15 to be strong. Full disclosure: I hold shares and warrants in this company. _______ UPDATE (November 13, 10:49 a.m. EST): Two days ahead of the earnings report, the stock has taken quite a leap, with an opening bar high today at 0.38 that was 36% above yesterday’s close. This means the 0.4385 target flagged above is well in play.  _______ UPDATE (6:49 p.m.): The stock took a leap Thursday back up to the midpoint pivot at 0.3380 associated with the 0.4385 target. Regarding earnings, they will be out later than expected, in line with the Canadian deadline for filing. Stay tuned _______ UPDATE (November 17):  Snipp has reported 252% earnings growth for Q3. Click here for the company’s latest filing. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 10:13 a.m.): Zounds!  The stock has popped to 0.40, quadrupling in the eight months since I first recommended it. My immediate target is 0.4356, but SNIPF will need some rest if and when it gets there. _______ UPDATE (December 9): Bulls are apt to be a little winded after the recent push to 0.4314, less than a penny shy of the target shown. We’ll give the stock time to consolidate for the next thrust. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 6:12 p.m.): With the broad averages plummeting yesterday, Snipp bucked the tide, hitting a new all-time high at 44.10. This opens a path over the near term to 0.4906, or perhaps 0.5193 if any higher. ______ UPDATE (January 5): The stock vaulted to 0.59 Friday on volume 250% of a daily average of about 400,000 shares. _______ UPDATE (January 18, 9:57 p.m.): SNIPF got hammered at its recent high of 0.60, with more than a million shares changing hands near the top. Volume on the pullback has been relatively light, however, and I expect buyers to turn the old high into support once they push past the old high in the months ahead. The company continues to win new business with an impressive and rapidly growing list of blue-chip clients. For a summary of client names, check out their logos by clicking here.


This Just In... for Monday

Bullish Look at HUI Gold Bugs Index

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2012 12:14 am GMT

This impromptu session from Thursday morning runs a little more than an hour, touching on B of A, the E-mini S&Ps and Comex gold. But of greatest interest, perhaps, in the final 15 minutes, is a detailed (and bullish) look at the HUI Gold Bugs Index. My suggestion is to fast-forward to this segment (unless you’re interested in the real-time ‘camo’ portion related to other vehicles).


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