April 21st, 2014
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Topic of the Week

[I'm running this commentary for a second day because of the high-minded discussion it has elicited.  Please be aware that an announcement next week concerning the latest bailout for Greece would probably generate a short-squeeze rally on Wall Street, much as it has a dozen times before.  Be that as it may, a potentially important target at 1353.00 that I'd flagged here for the E-Mini S&Ps has held thus far, the futures having spiked in the opening hour yesterday to...1352.75.  In other trading notes, a rally target for Bank of America shares was bullishly exceeded, although two more important ones remain: 13085 for the Dow -- a longstanding objective of ours;  and 119.91 for Goldman Sachs. Taken together, the prospect of simultaneous tops in so many bellwethers suggests that an important trend change could be imminent.  Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick's Picks if you'd like to keep abreast of further developments in real time. RA]

The financial world is on pins and needles as “investors” await Europe’s latest, quasi-momentous decision on the fate of Greece. The Greeks themselves, no fools, were a step ahead of the politicians and bankers, rioting in the streets.  Many of them have probably imbibed enough austerity to last a lifetime. Keep tightening one’s belt a notch at a time and eventually you’re left with two bloody torso halves. Not that the bankers would mind the mess as long as they get paid. So what, actually is at stake in this latest chapter of the eurobailoutpalooza? The rescue package under discussion amounts to a piddling €130 billion, and we can’t see how it’s going to make much of a difference. Even if it’s only intended to buy a little time, a sum as meager as that may not see the Eurocrisis through the weekend, much less through 2012.  For perspective, Flint, Michigan’s unfunded retirement and health benefits total about three times as much. Is Flint in worse shape than Greece? Hard to say, although the close proximity of such charming resorts as Corfu and Rhodos, as opposed to beautiful downtown Detroit, would seem to tip the quality-of-life numbers in favor of the Greeks, even the down-and-out day-trippers. » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Monday

Sunday Night Shenanigans

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2012 2:13 am GMT

The euro’s chart looks more bullish than the U.S. dollar’s at the moment, suggesting that the latest deal to keep Greece afloat has passed muster with the global banking establishment.  Index futures are up as well, but only by enough — six points — to imply DaBoyz are more interested in distributing stocks than buying them tonight. See you in the morning!


Rick's Picks for Monday
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ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1347.25)

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2012 6:44 am GMT

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GCJ12 – April Gold (Last:1730.70)

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2012 7:00 am GMT

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ECH12 – March Euro (Last:1.3251)

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2012 7:49 am GMT

March Euro (ECH12) price chart with targetsThe euro’s daily chart looks more bullish than the dollar’s at the moment, implying that Greece’s latest resuscitation will pass muster where it matters most — i.e., in the make-believe world of global finance. Even so, the futures can’t afford to stall for more than a few days lest they lose the considerable momentum that will be needed to surmount the 1.3296 ‘external’ peak recorded on December 8.  That’s what it will take to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the daily chart and to sustain the illusion that Europe is somehow muddling through its debt crisis. Click here for details concerning the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar, where you can learn to do this stuff yourself.

SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:35.88)

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2012 8:13 am GMT

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$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:79.89)

by Rick Ackerman on April 21, 2014 5:25 am GMT

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$ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1861.50)

by Rick Ackerman on April 21, 2014 3:39 am GMT

Late Sunday night, it’s anyone’s guess whether DaBoyz are fixing to run stops above the 1867.50 peak shown. That’s assuming there’s enough short-covering fear to pull it off, which appears not to be the case at the moment. Far more ambitious would be a push above the April 4 peak at 1892.50 to new all-time highs.  Assuming that’s about to happen, it’s highly doubtful it will be by way of an impulse leg that exceeds both of the peaks in a single, unpaused leap.  More likely is a push today above peak #1 that would probably spell death-by-Chinese-water-torture for shorts in the days ahead. In any event, your trading bias should be bullish above 1867.50, with entry based on whatever uptrending ABC ‘camouflage’ patterns you can find on charts of 15-minute degree or less. Keep in mind that the first such opportunity signaled, as opposed to one further along in the uptrend, would be the least risky to trade.

$GCM14 – June Gold (Last:1295.10)

by Rick Ackerman on April 21, 2014 2:49 am GMT

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$USM14 – June T-Bond (Last:134^01)

by Rick Ackerman on April 2, 2014 3:21 am GMT

We don’t pay much attention to this vehicle other than at key turning points, but the short-term pattern shown looks like a lay-up for traders who see futures contracts as no more than bouncing dots on a chart, waiting to be exploited. There are actually two trade possibilities here: 1) a ‘camouflage’ short as USM slips below the 132^13 midpoint; 2) and a very tightly stopped long from within a tick or two of the 131^17 target. Good luck!  Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (3:17 p.m. ET): The short was tricky to initiate, but once aboard, your reward came quickly with a drop to a so-far low at  131^26. As noted above, the short should be covered and reversed near 131^17. ______ UPDATE (April 6, 3:57 p.m.): The low of Friday’s violent price swings was 131^21 — not quite close enough to have gotten you long easily. Although this could prove to be an important low for the short- to intermediate term, under the circumstances I’ll assume no subscribers were filled. _______ UPDATE (April 11, 1:03 a.m.): Next important stop on the way higher: 135^17. _______ UPDATE (April 20, 11:10 p.m. ET): Last week’s fleeting stab to 135^10 came within less than a quarter-point of my target — close enough for us to consider it fulfilled. It took the futures more than a month to get there, so we should expect this correction-or-worse to last for at least a week or so before bulls attempt to push T-Bonds to new recovery highs.

HGK14 – May Copper (Last:2.9820)

by Rick Ackerman on March 31, 2014 12:20 am GMT

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This Just In... for Monday

Bullish Look at HUI Gold Bugs Index

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2012 12:14 am GMT

This impromptu session from Thursday morning runs a little more than an hour, touching on B of A, the E-mini S&Ps and Comex gold. But of greatest interest, perhaps, in the final 15 minutes, is a detailed (and bullish) look at the HUI Gold Bugs Index. My suggestion is to fast-forward to this segment (unless you’re interested in the real-time ‘camo’ portion related to other vehicles).


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