Wednesday, February 22, 2012

GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Are the forces that have been driving crude oil and bullion prices higher strong enough to carry gold shares along with them?  We may be better able to answer that question once we’ve seen how the Junior Gold Miners ETF interacts with a minor Hidden Pivot rally target that lies just above yesterday’s intraday high. As always, an easy move through a clear ‘D’ rally target would portend still more upside to come.

CLH12 – March Crude (Last:105.88)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

We’ve been monitoring crude prices closely, since they could conceivably provide a more timely warning of war in the Middle East than the headlines. Quotes are pushing into our red zone now, trading around $106 for the NYMEX March, and it seems doubtful this could be related to financial strains on Europe. Yesterday’s spike brought the March futures to within one cent of a $106.06 target (see inset) that has been two weeks in coming. Given the importance of this Hidden Pivot resistance – and of another at 106.34 that has been more than two months in coming -- we should expect to see evidence of some real stopping power precisely at these levels.  Under the circumstances, if the pivots appear to give way easily today, the move would start seeming less like noise and more like a possible harbinger of an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear-weapons facilities.  (Note: A breakout would augur a move up to at least 120.18, basis the April contract, according to calculations done Tuesday night by Doug 'harry' McLagan.) For investors, it will be impossible to predict what events that might set in motion, but it surely has the potential to more than merely shake the geopolitical and economic ground. Since Gold has been moving up strongly as well, we should infer that it will continue to do so, driven by the same forces -- whatever they are -- that are pushing crude higher.

GCJ12 – April Gold (Last:1779.80)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The gold futures have traded up to the vicinity of an important midpoint pivot and are now confronting significant resistance.  The 1763.20 pivot has been mentioned here repeatedly, and Tuesday's strong rally fell short of the mark by $1.30 per ounce.  Above the pivot is the 2012 high of 1765.90 and the prominent prior high of 1769.70.  Unfortunately, none of these levels can really give gold bulls the all-clear signal, as the pullbacks since the major low of 1526.20 have been so shallow.  The same problem exists on the shorter-term charts, as the rally from 1737.30 on the hourly chart has not pulled back enough for our purposes.  But given this state of bullishness, traders should watch for a rally that peaks between 1765.90 and 1769.70, since a pullback from there might set up a camouflaged buying opportunity.  (Posted by Doug "harry" McLagan)    _______ UPDATE (per RA, 2:18 p.m. EST): Up, up and away!  On the three minute chart, this extension rally projects to 1787.70 (A=1756.70  at 12:48 p.m.). The target is an odds-on shot for the near term, since the futures have already pushed past its p sibling at 1779.00.

HUI – Gold Bugs Index (Last:536.82)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The Gold Bugs Index has rallied 33 points after bottoming within less than a point of a 504.27 correction target flagged here earlier. Short-term, there is about 5% of additional upside based on a Hidden Pivot target at 566.77 that is shown in the chart. Although yesterday's sharp rally was not impulsive on the hourly chart, bulls should take encouragement from the fact that HUI  appears to be consolidating above the 535.92 midpoint pivot associated with the target.  Although we don't ordinarily trade this vehicle, I'll note nonetheless that the series of four 'external' peaks that I've labeled looks promising for traders who want to leverage a bullish bet on a B-C pullback from anywhere in their midst. You can learn to do this stuff yourself. Click here for details concerning the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar, where you'll learn enough in just six weeks to kiss your guru goodbye.

Is Crude Oil Signaling War?

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

A month or so ago, when talk of an Israeli air strike against Iran’s nuclear-weapons facilities began to heat up, I suggested watching the price of crude to tell us whether the threat might have escalated beyond the level of rumor and speculation.  Quotes are pushing into the red zone now, so I’d suggest taking a good look at today’s tout for the March futures contract. It explains what to look for, technically speaking, so that we might 'know' whether the price of crude is about to blast off. Meanwhile, in the news tonight is an item that could be correlated to a heightened threat:  Iran has rejected the U.N. watchdog's request to inspect a key military facility. So much for the Islamic Republic's repeated assertions they have nothing to hide.

ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1360.75)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Expect a little more backing and filling before this vehicle gets goosed to 1390.50, a Hidden Pivot target broached here earlier.  Why the delay? Apparently, DaBoyz got a little ahead of themselves when they opened index futures Monday night for holiday-shortened trading. Although they were able to gap this hoax higher on zero volume, it left some actual sellers to deal with yesterday after the excitement had died down over the latest, absolutely fabulous news from Europe. Night owls looking to chase boredom by getting long should seek camouflage opportunities on the three-minute chart. As of around 6:35 p.m. EST, there were two 'external' peaks that could prove helpful in this regard: 1362.75 and 1363.25.  

Election 2012 Just One More Crafted Illusion?

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

[For well more than a year, the Mainstream Media have given us a steady flow of campaign bilge that, finally, has made the entire Republican field seem unappealing. Perhaps this was the Fourth Estate's goal all along. After all, it was a left-tilting press that conspired to help Obama win in 2008 by ignoring his complete lack of experience and extreme political views.  This time, with the same goal in mind but using the opposite approach, the news media have picked off the GOP candidates one by one, turning them into shooting-gallery ducks as their ex-wives and mistresses, former employees and business associates and a sordid parade of other detractors testified against them. And all for what?  Apparently, to ensure the still-likely nomination of Mitt Romney, a man whose candidacy excites no one. In the guest editorial below, Wayne Razzi, a Rick’s Picks forum regular who goes by the handle “Red Will Danaher,” explains how it came to pass that, in a time of national crisis, we are about to do no better in November than perpetuate the political status quo.  Could things have turned out differently? Unfortunately not, concludes Wayne. It may take catastrophe, rather than mere crisis, to bring about real change.  RA] Assume for a moment that you’ve been installed in the role of the maintenance manager of the Great American False-Choice Spectacle.  Your prime directive would almost certainly be to keep hidden the fact that outcomes matter little.  Thus, as we are repeatedly informed via popular media, you may strongly consider hiding the truth in plain sight, as there are few better places.  And so, that seems to be the case now more than ever as the strategy is executed through the chain of command and control that expertly utilizes mass media. The elitist, crusading cowards