January 29th, 2015
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Weekly Commentary

We wrote here recently that as Apple shares go, so goes the U.S. stock market. How has the stock fared?  Last week there was quite a bit of excitement when the broad-tossers who manipulate the stock for a living short-squeezed the bejeezus out of it after the close, leveraging a strong earnings report that could have surprised only Wall Street’s clueless analysts. Moments after the news hit the tape, AAPL gapped up 9% in a blink, recouping two-thirds of the losses it had suffered the previous two weeks, when it plummeted $90 from an all-time high at $644.  From a technical standpoint, what was interesting about the  decline is that it reversed from within 29 cents of a “Hidden Pivot” correction target we’d disseminated to subscribers a few days earlier. For if the stock had exceeded that number by more than a couple of dollars, it would have held bearish implications for the short-to-intermediate-term. However, because the pivot survived, there was no way to judge the mettle of bulls until Apple rallied out of the hole. » Read the full article


Thought for Today

June Gold looks to be consolidating on the perhaps-too-obvious trendline we’ve been studying in recent weeks. Although this is auspicious on its face, I’ve nonetheless recommended a relatively loose stop-loss for the single-contract tracking position that remains.  Meanwhile, in GDXJ, a ‘camo’ entry opportunity could get away from us if it opens too strong.


Rick's Picks for Monday
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GCM12 – June Gold (Last:1659.80)

by Rick Ackerman on April 30, 2012 7:15 am GMT

June Gold (GCM12) price chart with targetsWe hold a single contract with an effective cost-basis of 1641.50.  This is a tracking position for your further guidance, since two subscribers confirmed entry on the terms spelled out here Friday. The futures appear to be consolidating above the trendline we’d focused on, and although that will give us more leeway to let paper profits run, it is never wise to forsake a stop-loss. Accordingly, I’ll recommend placing one for today at 1649.10, which is where the hourly chart would turn bearishly impulsive.  The price point is shown in the inset. _______ UPDATE (11:43 a.m EDT):  We exited on a gratuitous swoon to 1645.10 for a theoretical gain of $360 per contract. We’ll try again when an irresistible opportunity like the last arises. It is not a positive sign that the futures could not hold the trendline.

ESM12 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1400.50)

by Rick Ackerman on April 30, 2012 7:28 am GMT

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SIK12 – May Silver (Last:31.835)

by Rick Ackerman on April 30, 2012 7:49 am GMT

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$ESH15 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:2036.00)

by Rick Ackerman on January 28, 2015 3:32 am GMT

Yesterday’s selloff, nasty as it seemed, was just the correction of a subtle, bullish impulse leg generated last Friday on the daily chart. Notice that the intraday high exceeded a peak made two weeks earlier by 0.50 points (two ticks).  It’s a subtle impulse leg, to be sure, but it needn’t have been any more obvious or robust to qualify the weakness of the last three days as merely corrective.  All of which implies that our longstanding target at 2105.00 is still very much in play. Its attainment would represent only a marginal new all-time high, but we’ll short there aggressively anyway, since it is just the kind of place where bulls could get trapped worse than Gen. Custer.

$JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:38.83)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 6:10 am GMT

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$+CLH15 – March Crude (Last:45.28)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 5:34 am GMT

The futures are banging on a 44.12 Hidden Pivot support that they last visited on January 13. We won’t presume as to whether the support will hold this time around, but if it gives way the 41.00 target of a lesser downtrend (see inset) would be in play. Traders will have to sort out the opportunities in real time, but I’d suggest using a chart of 5-minute degree or less to generate an actionable ‘camouflage’ pattern. If you prefer the simpler method of a ‘mechanical’ entry, a short from 46.36 can be used, stop 48.15.  This is significantly more risk that we are used to taking when trading this vehicle, since swing highs and lows on the very lesser charts can usually be predicted with 10 to 20 cents.  Under the circumstances, I’d suggest holding position size down to a single contract unless you use ‘camouflage’. _______ UPDATE (1:42 p.m.): Just posted in the chat room: The recent high at 46.41 was bullishly impulsive, so shorts initiated at 46.36 as I’d advised should be tied to a short tether — i.e., a stop-loss that will leave you with at least a small profit no matter what. If you are short multiple contracts, half should be covered here for around 45.69, for a gain of about $670 per contract. If you prefer an impulsive stop, the 3-minute chart would pop you out of the trade on an uncorrected rally exceeding 46.14. _______ UPDATE (11:34 p.m.): The futures have plummeted $1.41 from within a nickel of where I’d suggested getting short.  The trade could have been worth as much $1360 per contract, but if you still hold a position I’ll recommend tying it to an impulsive stop-loss on the 5-minute chart. At the moment, that would imply stopping yourself out of the short if the futures thrust above 45.58 without correcting.  Please let me know in the chat room if you hold a position, since I can provide a tracking position for you further guidance.

$HGH15 – March Copper (Last:2.5485)

by Rick Ackerman on January 15, 2015 4:24 am GMT

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:133.40)

by Rick Ackerman on January 12, 2015 1:30 am GMT

A sale at 2.10 was a lay-up on Friday, since the spread peaked near the opening above 2.30.  With about $2640 in profits already booked, I’ll suggest holding the remaining spreads till expiration. If TLT is trading above 129 at the time, the total profit on the position would be $3840.  From a technical standpoint, the stock’s almost relentless strength is surprising, even to me. In retrospect, it vindicates our strategy — still viable — of buying every minor pullback, since that seems to be as much weakness as we’ll get.  I still expect the 133.16 target shown to exhibit some stopping power, but we shouldn’t be too surprised if buyers just shrug it off. ________ UPDATE (January 16, 12:04 a.m.): Even though I keep repeating that we should expect this vehicle to continue rampaging higher for years and years, I still can’t get used to how easily it blows past ostensibly daunting Hidden Pivot resistances. For what it’s worth, the next lies at 138.60.  Our position is beyond adjustment at this point and seems all but certain to produce a $3840 gain. _______ UPDATE (January 21, 8:24 p.m.):  Yesterday’s selloff was the most vicious we’ve seen in months, but it had no impact whatsoever on the 138.60 target noted above.  The rather large profit from our spread is safe in any case and will remain so unless Armageddon intervenes.

+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.4410)

by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2014 3:16 am GMT

I first recommended this stock in early September after being very impressed with a presentation by its CEO, Atul Sabharwal. The company provides mobile marketing solutions to a growing list of clients that includes Wal-Mart, ESPN, Lexus, Taco Bell, Target, Johnson & Johnson and Minute Maid.  Snipp’s shares are listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX: SPN) and on the OTC in the U.S. (symbol: SNIPF), but yesterday it filed with the SEC for an exchange listing in the U.S.  From a technical standpoint, SNIPF looks to be basing for a move to as high as 0.4385. First, though, it would need to trip a buy signal at 0.2878, then to clear the 0.3380 midpoint pivot (see inset).  The company continues to win new business at a rapid clip, and that’s why I expect the earnings report due out November 15 to be strong. Full disclosure: I hold shares and warrants in this company. _______ UPDATE (November 13, 10:49 a.m. EST): Two days ahead of the earnings report, the stock has taken quite a leap, with an opening bar high today at 0.38 that was 36% above yesterday’s close. This means the 0.4385 target flagged above is well in play.  _______ UPDATE (6:49 p.m.): The stock took a leap Thursday back up to the midpoint pivot at 0.3380 associated with the 0.4385 target. Regarding earnings, they will be out later than expected, in line with the Canadian deadline for filing. Stay tuned _______ UPDATE (November 17):  Snipp has reported 252% earnings growth for Q3. Click here for the company’s latest filing. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 10:13 a.m.): Zounds!  The stock has popped to 0.40, quadrupling in the eight months since I first recommended it. My immediate target is 0.4356, but SNIPF will need some rest if and when it gets there. _______ UPDATE (December 9): Bulls are apt to be a little winded after the recent push to 0.4314, less than a penny shy of the target shown. We’ll give the stock time to consolidate for the next thrust. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 6:12 p.m.): With the broad averages plummeting yesterday, Snipp bucked the tide, hitting a new all-time high at 44.10. This opens a path over the near term to 0.4906, or perhaps 0.5193 if any higher. ______ UPDATE (January 5): The stock vaulted to 0.59 Friday on volume 250% of a daily average of about 400,000 shares. _______ UPDATE (January 18, 9:57 p.m.): SNIPF got hammered at its recent high of 0.60, with more than a million shares changing hands near the top. Volume on the pullback has been relatively light, however, and I expect buyers to turn the old high into support once they push past the old high in the months ahead. The company continues to win new business with an impressive and rapidly growing list of blue-chip clients. For a summary of client names, check out their logos by clicking here.


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