April 16th, 2014
Published Daily
Topic of the Week

We wrote here recently that as Apple shares go, so goes the U.S. stock market. How has the stock fared?  Last week there was quite a bit of excitement when the broad-tossers who manipulate the stock for a living short-squeezed the bejeezus out of it after the close, leveraging a strong earnings report that could have surprised only Wall Street’s clueless analysts. Moments after the news hit the tape, AAPL gapped up 9% in a blink, recouping two-thirds of the losses it had suffered the previous two weeks, when it plummeted $90 from an all-time high at $644.  From a technical standpoint, what was interesting about the  decline is that it reversed from within 29 cents of a “Hidden Pivot” correction target we’d disseminated to subscribers a few days earlier. For if the stock had exceeded that number by more than a couple of dollars, it would have held bearish implications for the short-to-intermediate-term. However, because the pivot survived, there was no way to judge the mettle of bulls until Apple rallied out of the hole. » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Monday

June Gold looks to be consolidating on the perhaps-too-obvious trendline we’ve been studying in recent weeks. Although this is auspicious on its face, I’ve nonetheless recommended a relatively loose stop-loss for the single-contract tracking position that remains.  Meanwhile, in GDXJ, a ‘camo’ entry opportunity could get away from us if it opens too strong.


Rick's Picks for Monday
$ = Actionable Advice + = Open Position
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GCM12 – June Gold (Last:1659.80)

by Rick Ackerman on April 30, 2012 7:15 am GMT

June Gold (GCM12) price chart with targetsWe hold a single contract with an effective cost-basis of 1641.50.  This is a tracking position for your further guidance, since two subscribers confirmed entry on the terms spelled out here Friday. The futures appear to be consolidating above the trendline we’d focused on, and although that will give us more leeway to let paper profits run, it is never wise to forsake a stop-loss. Accordingly, I’ll recommend placing one for today at 1649.10, which is where the hourly chart would turn bearishly impulsive.  The price point is shown in the inset. _______ UPDATE (11:43 a.m EDT):  We exited on a gratuitous swoon to 1645.10 for a theoretical gain of $360 per contract. We’ll try again when an irresistible opportunity like the last arises. It is not a positive sign that the futures could not hold the trendline.

ESM12 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1400.50)

by Rick Ackerman on April 30, 2012 7:28 am GMT

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SIK12 – May Silver (Last:31.835)

by Rick Ackerman on April 30, 2012 7:49 am GMT

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$ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1843.00)

by Rick Ackerman on April 16, 2014 12:01 am GMT

It was just coincidence that yesterday’s edition of Rick’s Picks led with a headline about schizophrenia, since a market-watcher could not have asked for a better demonstration of it.  At the opening, the futures head-faked the equivalent of 100 DJIA points; then they plummeted the equivalent of 250. Just when things looked darkest, short-covering by bears too stupid and frightened to know when to sit tight drove the futures into a spasm that recouped earlier losses and then some. By day’s end the futures were up 18 points, bears were cowering, Wall Street was jubilant and all was right with the world. I won’t hazard a guess as to where this freak show will head tomorrow, but I should warn bulls nonetheless that the night session is unlikely to deliver much more upside than the 1845.50 target shown.  Above it, perhaps after Wednesday’s opening bell, an 1851.75 target will be in play. However, if you plan on intercepting it with a short offer, you had best do so only if you’ve caughta piece of the rally.

$SIK14 – May Silver (Last:19.565)

by Rick Ackerman on April 15, 2014 4:49 am GMT

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$USM14 – June T-Bond (Last:134^06)

by Rick Ackerman on April 2, 2014 3:21 am GMT

We don’t pay much attention to this vehicle other than at key turning points, but the short-term pattern shown looks like a lay-up for traders who see futures contracts as no more than bouncing dots on a chart, waiting to be exploited. There are actually two trade possibilities here: 1) a ‘camouflage’ short as USM slips below the 132^13 midpoint; 2) and a very tightly stopped long from within a tick or two of the 131^17 target. Good luck!  Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (3:17 p.m. ET): The short was tricky to initiate, but once aboard, your reward came quickly with a drop to a so-far low at  131^26. As noted above, the short should be covered and reversed near 131^17. ______ UPDATE (April 6, 3:57 p.m.): The low of Friday’s violent price swings was 131^21 — not quite close enough to have gotten you long easily. Although this could prove to be an important low for the short- to intermediate term, under the circumstances I’ll assume no subscribers were filled. _______ UPDATE (April 11, 1:03 a.m.): Next important stop on the way higher: 135^17.

HGK14 – May Copper (Last:2.9820)

by Rick Ackerman on March 31, 2014 12:20 am GMT

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