Thursday, May 3, 2012

Resigned as I am to more mindless wafting in the broad averages, I am expecting Apple to turn higher at any time. Officially, we'd have a buy signal at 593.78, based on the pattern shown. A thrust to that price would create a promising impulse leg on lesser charts, and so we might look for an entry opportunity if and when it happens. My hunch is that a timed buy-stop would offer the best way in, presumably following a fleeting 'b-c' correction from just above the 593.47 peak.

Eager as I am to say the bottom is in for Gold, Silver's charts look too heavy right now to corroborate this.  Accordingly, I've provided some hair-trigger price points where we might take encouragement today, but also some bearish futures targets that look all-too-magnetic.

The thumbnail chart shown is one we pored over during yesterday's tutorial session.  The key price points to watch are 30.145, a midpoint support that can serve as a minimum downside target for the near term; and its 'D' sibling, 28.810.  Both look like  high-odds numbers that will be reached precisely, which is good for trading purposes. The bad news, however, is that a fall to the lower pivot would take quite a toll on precious-metal  bulls.  Most immediately, buyers will need to push the June contract above 30.625 today to go on the offensive. However, it would take nothing less than a close above 30.845 to set up a rally into week's end.  Both numbers are 'external' peaks easily found on the 10-minute chart.

Much as I'd like to give Gold the benefit of the doubt, Silver's charts are so heavy right now that we should brace for more weakness in this vehicle. In Hidden Pivot terms, June Gold has little going for it at the moment, since none of the rallies on the hourly chart are generating impulse legs.  That's why we focused on the trendline from the March 1 high: It showed more promise.  But even though buyers have managed to push above it, their energy appears to be flagging, and the line could soon become resistance again. Alternatively, a print today exceeding 1660.90 would turn the lesser charts short-term bullish. The significance of this number is shown in the inset.  _______ UPDATE (4:57 a.m. EDT): A correction target at 1637.40 has come into focus as the futures have ratcheted lower overnight. On the 15m chart, the coordinates are A=1672.30 (5/1 at 9 a.m.); B=1649.10 and C=1660.60. The sausage-y 'B' cries out for the one-off 'A' at 1670.70, but in the end I broke some rules to use three razor-sharp single-bar coordinates, and because of the fraternal resemblance between k-A and B-C.  Bottom line:  Aggressive bottom fishing is warranted -- tightly stopped or via camouflage -- if the futures closely approach 1637.40. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (12:30 p.m.):  The 1637.40 pivot evinced no support whatsoever on first contact, telegraphing the further weakness that has followed.  Regarding camo entry opportunities, even on the one-minute chart there were none until 1636.10 was tripped at 10:33 a.m. That was after the futures had traded down to 1632.70, however, reducing the value of the entry signal.  In the chat room, a subscriber who apparently initiated the long in the wee hours with a straight buy order reported getting stopped out at 1638.80 for a small gain.  This

A rally target at 1439.50 remains our lodestone, although, to put it mildly, the trek has not been an easy one for bulls. Night owls looking for a 'camouflage' entry opportunity should try leveraging a p midpoint like the one shown, assuming things play more or less out as sketched.

How’s the U.S. economy doing?  Although you couldn't tell from the muted reaction of the stock market, yesterday’s headlines were as discouraging as we’ve seen in a while. For starters, the supposed recovery generated a feeble 119,000 private-sector jobs in April -- less than half the number required to recoup positions lost during the worst years of the still-potent Great Recession. The usual bunch of “experts” had “expected” 175,000 new jobs, but even with seasonal adjustments and some other statistical hocus-pocus, the Guvvamint’s able spinmeisters failed to deliver the kind of numbers that get incumbents re-elected. There was also news that factory orders in March fell 1.5% from February. Although this datum reportedly was in line with expectations, it hardly supports the Recovery drumbeat that has been growing louder and louder with each passing week. So loud, in fact, that it has prompted speculation that the Fed might raise interest rates in, um...2014. This is the kind of idiotic blather that gives the mainstream media its comic appeal. We can understand why Bernanke and the White House would want to put the story in play, and why a lazy, economically ignorant press would eagerly swallow it like a fish tossed to a trained seal.  The story is intended to make all of us rubes think the Fed actually believes its own story that the economy is recovering. If this were true, however, why would They wait until 2014 to put a lid on inflation?  Managing expectations is all the bankers are trying to do, of course, but sometimes the way in which they do it feels so clumsy that we can be forgiven for thinking that Bernanke and The Powers That Be take us all for fools.  As for the notion that the Fed is planning to raise interest rates: