Evidence continues to accumulate that the Mother of All Bear Rallies begun in March of 2009 may have breathed its last. Yesterday, for instance, the all-news-is-good-news shtick so beloved on Wall Street laid an egg when markets around the world shrugged following Greek voters’ decision to stick with the euro. Ordinarily, Asian and European markets wouldn’t even have waited to breathe a sigh of relief before putting a death-lock on the cahones of traders reckless enough to have gone home short over the weekend. What we got instead of the obligatory short-squeeze was feeble rallies around the world, culminating with a reversal on the NYSE Monday that left the Dow Industrials 25 points lower. Worse yet, the news media quickly buried the story from Greece on the inside pages, focusing instead on how Spain’s borrowing costs have shot into the red zone above 7% once again. To put this in perspective, most hedge funds aren’t returning anything close to 7% these days. Imagine having to pay lenders that much just to cover fixed expenses. Another sign that stocks have returned to Kansas after more than three years in Oz is that bellwether Apple’s shares have looked punk ever since the stock hit an all-time high at $644 in mid-April. Minor rally cycles are failing to generate the kind of robust “impulse legs” on the intraday charts that we had become accustomed to. And the shares of another key bellwether, IBM, look just as heavy. Even If We Are Wrong... Are we perhaps premature in our bearishness? There’s always that possibility. We never claimed to have a crystal ball. But even if we’re wrong, Rick’s Picks will be looking to get short every chance we get, buying index put options at the targets of minor rallies, shorting the E-Mini futures outright
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
SIN12 – July Silver (Last:28.790)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksNo change. Silver doesn’t look quite as punk as Gold at the moment, but neither does it look capable of the burst it will take to vault the 29.260 midpoint resistance shown. Once that Hidden Pivot is breached to the upside on a closing basis, its 30.605 sibling will become no worse than an even-odds bet. Alternatively, a bearish target at 27.530 will remain in play (60m, A=29.675 on 6/7), predicated on a close beneath its p sibling at 28.310.
GCQ12 – August Gold (Last:1630.30)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksBulls haven't made much headway since Gold bottomed in mid-May. However, with the futures trading near the top of their recent range, it would take only a $20 thrust for them to seize the advantage. Specifically, the August contract would take on new life with a pop today that exceeds the 1649.30 'external' peak shown. Camouflageurs can try getting long if there's a shallow b-c pullback from just above it, but I'd suggest using a 'timed buy-stop,' since the move may be perceived as a breakout by our competition. If so, the 'x' trigger would likely come up quickly, requiring a nimble response. Click here to learn more about the Hidden Pivot Method and “camouflage” trading.
Dow Looks Eager to Revisit 13000
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksIndex futures were scuddling sideways Monday night, somewhat above the middle of the day's range. A 1378 target for the E-Mini S&Ps is still my minimum upside target for the near term, implying the Dow Industrials are about to push above 13000 for the fourth time this year.
AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:585.81)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksAdding to the evidence that Apple is in a bear market is its inability to create robust impulse legs with each new thrust. This is compounded by the dueling, bearish legs that are following each half-hearted rally. We can try to short the stock at some point, perhaps by legging into a way-out-of-the-money calendar spread when the stock is pushing up against a Hidden Pivot rally target. For now, though, we'll take a step back, since bulls could reinvigorate the larger intraday charts with the relatively short leap needed to surpass the two external peaks shown.
ESU12 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1341.75)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksA 1378.25 rally target is an old friend by now -- my minimum upside projection for perhaps the next 3-5 days. The move has already exceeded the 1337.75 midpoint by a mile (i.e., 10 points), so any pullback to that number is implicitly a "buy" via camouflage. More immediately, night owls could try bottom-fishing at the p midpoint of the still-developing pattern shown in brown. However, because there are three conceivable 'A' highs, a camouflage entry is a must.
