Friday, October 26, 2012

Fear and Loathing in Apple

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

A wounded Apple could turn rabid when Friday's session begins, especially since it won't be clear to some traders whether  an overnight print down at 585.10 was real or not. My worst-case target for the stock, 571.93, is based on the assumption that, real or not, traders will behave as though it were.

AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:609.68)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Tonight's flukey-looking price bar (see inset) may not be real, but bad prints have been known to influence actuality in ways that could spell trouble for Apple on Friday.  Although the company's earnings for Q3 were hardly anything to be embarrassed about, the mood of the day could nevertheless be hostile toward any earnings report no matter how good. From a technical standpoint, and assuming the possibly bad print will become destiny, my worst-case target for the near term is the 571.93 target of the pattern shown.

GCZ12 – December Gold (Last:1705.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Thursday's faintly promising rally has been erased by late-night weakness. Although the futures are technically in an uptrend relative to Wednesday's 1698.7 low, a larger pattern projecting to as low as 1686.00 still holds sway. Notice that it has now been reinforced by a lesser pattern that targets 1686.40. Since that pattern's 1702.60 midpoint support has already given way, odds are high that at least somewhat lower prices impend. Because of the confluence of targets, I am recommending that you bottom-fish there via camouflage, using the three-  or five-minute chart.  If any fills are reported in the chat room, I'll establish tracking guidance.  Click here for a free peek at all of Rick's touts and real-time trading recommendations for a week.

ESZ12 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:1397.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The futures were getting hit mildly as of around 2 a.m. Eastern,  though not yet savaged.  The pattern shown suggests minimum downside over the near term to at least 1385.25, but merely observing the resilience of that Hidden Pivot will likely be more valuable to us than attempting to trade it (although that, too, should be easily possible via camouflage or a straight bid).

It’s Taps for Europe’s ‘Last Honest Men’

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Mario Draghi, feather merchant to northern Europe, is once again plying his dubious trade, this time with a slick sales pitch designed to persuade Germany that he can “save” Europe with a financial scheme that makes alchemy look respectable. The challenge he faces is more ambitious than merely putting another dab of lipstick on the PIIGS.  Rather, it is like asking the Germans to press their noses to a sardine’s armpit and have them come away reassured they’ve smelled fine perfume.  In Berlin to deliver a tightly scripted speech that was intended to give Germany’s parliament political cover for doing the wrong thing, Draghi told members he was “here to listen to your views on the ECB, on the euro-area economy and on the longer vision for Europe.” Translation: “This is a stickup. Give me the money now and don’t try anything foolish, because I am desperate.”  True enough.  But will German bankers simply roll over?  In all probability yes, given Merkel’s damn-the-torpedoes determination to do what every politician must these days in order to survive – i.e., kick the can down the road for as long as possible. If and when they run up the white flag, the bankers will be surrendering more than just German treasure. For in the by-now terminally ethereal world of global finance, they are the last honest men, steeped in the agonizing lessons of the Weimar hyperinflation of 1921-23.  Now they are being asked to sanction a deal that would give Draghi the ability to create unlimited sums of digital money so that the central bank can buy the bonds of countries no longer able to pay even the interest on those bonds.  Such measures will of course have no impact on the EU’s moribund economy, especially with Germany’s unexpectedly steep slowdown threatening to

Live Session: How to Use Oscillators

– Posted in: Links

To keep things simple, Hidden Pivot Analysis rarely concerns itself with oscillators such as stochastics, RSI, McClellan or MACD. However, these tools can sometimes be useful for predictive purposes -- and for trading when combined with camouflage. The accompanying chart shows a ‘non-diverging’ MACD with bearish implications for the Dow Industrials. Why is this so? Join me Friday for a quick lesson in how to make good use of oscillators. The ideas I will present were at one time included in the Hidden Pivot Course under the heading “Everything You Need to Know About Stochastics in Five Minutes”.