Wednesday, November 28, 2012

GCZ12 – December Gold (Last:1716.30)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Uh-oh.  Before taking this latest dive, December Gold not only failed to reach an 'easy' target at 1763.30, it also died without having surpassed an 'external' peak at 1755.00 recorded in mid-October. In fact, last Friday's last-gasp thrust merely tied 1755.00, setting the stage for this morning's collapse, but also for a potentially lengthy slog in purgatory. Now, weakness could persist down to as low as 1629.40 (see inset), but at least to 1692.20.  Please note that the target is near the lower end of the range delineated in a previous tout that superimposed a pennant formation on the weekly chart. The conclusion was that the gold price could oscillate between around 1600 and 1800 until well into 2014.

End-of-Day Camouflage in Google

– Posted in: Tutorials

How does one trade a $700 stock in the final hour? Very carefully, of course, as this 8-minute recording makes clear. In a tout disseminated the night before, I’d suggested using camouflage to get long in Google. Using the one-minute chart, here’s one approach that would have worked, although the trade was subsequently stopped out.

GG – Goldcorp Inc. (Last:38.72)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Someone posted 37.82 as an important midpoint support on the weekly chart, but I wouldn't rely too heavily on it, since the pattern (A=50.74, B=31.54, C=47.52) has a second point 'C' that will tend to diminish its reliability. Instead, I would suggest focusing on the daily-bar pattern shown for clues about whether the correction begun in May may be spent, or nearly so. If that is the case, we should see the current downtrend reverse from no lower than the 38.62 midpoint.  The rally wouldn't have to exceed the 41.65 point C of the pattern to energize bulls; all that's needed would be an impulsive thrust on the hourly chart.  ______ UPDATE (11:17 a.m. EST):  This morning's further devastation has crushed the support, implying the futures will now fall to its 'D' sibling, at least: 35.60.  A rally back up to the 38.62 midpoint should be viewed as an opportunity to get short. Camouflage is advised.

GOOG – Google (Last:670.88)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Hidden Pivots aside, an un-schooled look at the chart (inset) will tell you this stock is ready to rip. The target of the pattern shown is 700.00, and there'll be no stopping the rampage if and when GOOG pushes past the 679.00 midpoint resistance. We dabbled with camouflage in the final hour of yesterday's session, attempting to get long with very limited risk, but the trade was stopped out after the first profit-taking interval at p of a one-minute pattern. We'll keep trying, since I am eager myself to learn how to best trade it -- whether via weekly options, or using raw stock. If a fetching opportunity should arise, I'll signal it first in the chat room, and then, if there's time, via 'E-Mail Notifications'  (a setting available on your 'My Account' page). 

Getting Google’s Number

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

As noted in today's Google tout, I'll be trying to get the range and the rhythm of the stock in the days and weeks ahead so that we can play with it intraday.  I've never traded weekly options myself, but they would seem to offer a promising vehicle for taming risk.  Also, because Google's highs and lows have a curious affinity for whole numbers, that could make things more interesting for us.

Best Buy: Where We’d Back Up the Truck

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Let us say a prayer for Best Buy as the company attempts a daring overhaul. There is surprisingly good news on this front, and we’ll get to it in a moment. Suffice it to say, the stakes are extremely high, since failure could mean that ten years from now, quite a few of the things Americans buy other than food will necessarily come from Walmart, Costco and Amazon.  For USA shoppers used to limitless variety, this would be Bedford Falls without George Bailey. Bleak as that may sound, it hardly exaggerates the possible endgame of a trend that has seen vacated storefronts spread like a pox across America. Big-box operators in particular have been failing at an alarming rate, leaving gaping holes in strip malls and once-thriving city streets. The Great Indoors, Hollywood Video, Linens ’n Things,  K.B. Toys, Borders, Montgomery Ward and Woolworth’s were all household names that have vanished from the retail landscape if not yet from memory. Competition in the consumer electronics business in particular has been brutal, laying waste not only to CompUSA and Circuit City in recent years, but, before them, to Tweeter, Federated, The Wiz, Crazy Eddie, Incredible Universe, Musicland, The Good Guys and Computer City.  This is capitalism’s “creative destruction” at its most devastating, and it could continue to ravage the retail scene for years to come.  Just ponder the list of big-box survivors whose days could be numbered: Sears, Barnes & Noble, Bed Bath &  Beyond, JC Penney, Macy’s, Nordstrom, Office Depot, Office Max, Staples, Toys R Us, Blockbuster Video.  Sears, which has been dying since the 1980s, few will miss. But if two far better emporiums, Macy’s and Nordstrom, fail, we’ll all be buying pants the same way we now buy shirts: "One-size-fits-all-orangutans". The Good News… Now for the good news: