Friday, January 11, 2013

Judging from the discussion in the chat room, there seems to be zero interest in trading the E-Mini S&Ps even though I've all but guaranteed a rally to exactly 1494.50. Check out the chart accompanying today's tout if you want to see the fat pitch that yesterday's price action provided to 'camo' traders who were prepared to swing the bat.

The futures finally lurched into gear, presumably bound for a 1494.50 target that should be familiar to all by now.  It was very easy to catch a ride if you followed yesterday's advice, although it would have required initiating the trade at around 7:30 a.m. EST, two hours before the regular session began. It also would have required staying cool as the usual idiots and clowns drove the futures into up-and-down spasms after the opening.  I've reproduced the chart so that you can see how perfectly the 'camo' opportunity I'd described played out.  Chat-room trading discussion mainly concerned gold vehicles, and no one even mentioned the E-Mini trade, so I'll assume there was zero interest in it. Still, there's nearly 30 points of potential upside to leverage for anyone who cares to notice.

[We’ve heard back from our friend James Tolard now that he’s had a chance to digest your responses to his very bullish forecast for stocks and gold.  In the note below, he says that although it’s one thing for James the commentator to offer opinions about the market, James the trader would rather simply do the trade and not have to justify it to anyone.  Those of us who have had the experience of trading with other people’s money know the feeling well.   RA] Interesting responses. You may not remember this about my histoire, but from 1975 through 1998 I had a very good biz as a consultant, primarily in oilseeds, but also as a technical consultant, as the old guard did not take easily or kindly to technical trading. Tech trading was, however, becoming necessary, as the volatility in futures markets was such that even “serene” sideways markets required some money management. Anyway, over time, and as I began to push into my 40's, I realized that no one takes a trading recommendation, particularly if you try to defend, rationalize, or otherwise advance it. Rather, I merely stated strongly and firmly that I think this is true, and that this and that would happen, etc. When I was right, they remembered; when I was wrong, they didn't. BUT, when I gave reasons,  they gave arguments -- usually persuasive ones, too! -- against my arguments, and the result was that I was always wrong. So, going back to a dictum which I think is famous, but if not, it should be:  When you make a decision, always give your decision; never give your reasons. The decision might be right, but the reason are always wrong! Clever. Most Contrarians Are Bears In my bullish forecast, I gave my reasons, including some