Monday, January 28, 2013

I've got lower targets for Apple, but higher targets for the broad averages.  Should be an interesting week.  Please note that the weekly tutorial session for Hidden Pivot grads has been pushed forward a day, since I'll be traveling on Wednesday.

Although I'd initially said a two-day close above the 742.15 midpoint resistance of the pattern shown would make a follow-through to D=848.29 a good bet, I now see that it is the weekly chart that was featured, and that a two-week close above p is therefore needed to carry the day for bulls.  Regardless, a buy signal has been tripped for 'camo' traders, even if it is unusable at the moment because the still uncorrected uptrend is just too steep.  Any interval of tedium plotted on the 15-minute chart or less could yield the entry opportunity we're looking for, so stay with it if you're interested (and by all means please give me a nudge in the chat room if you see something that you think could work).  Click here to learn how you can do these tricks yourself.

The futures are entering their fourth consecutive week of narcissistic obliviousness to the real world, but there is no gainsaying the possibility that the foolishness could continue for yet a while  longer.  I am purposely not drumrolling a 1548.25 target publicly, but subscribers should keep it well in mind as place where we can short aggressively.  You've seen the chart enough times to recognize how clear and compelling the target is, but I am reproducing it yet again to remind you of why this target is worthy of our patience.

The markets were suspiciously subdued Sunday night -- developing thrust, perhaps, for the next maniacal surge. In retrospect, it seems remarkable that the broad averages were able to sustain an upward trajectory in recent weeks even as the most valuable stock in the world, Apple, was getting savaged. (Breaking news: Apple has fallen to second place, its cap value now exceeded by that of Exxon-Mobil.) The stock has plummeted 37% since September, from an all time high of $705 to Friday’s shell-shocked low of 435.  It must be conceded that even at $705, AAPL was not egregiously overpriced relative to earnings.  Presumably, Wall Street’s renowned shakedown artists have been intent on driving AAPL down to bargain-basement prices because they’re so confident they’ll be able to goose the stock back into the ionosphere before their 2013 bonuses are calculated.  Well, it’s optimists that make the world go ‘round, so perhaps we shouldn’t be so churlish as to deny them the spoils of such deftly executed opportunism. For our part, we’ve hated the stock market each and every step of the way up since, oh, 2009.  But it’s not as though we’re sore losers.  In fact, much of the time, we not only had the rallies nailed, we were able to profit from them on the way up -- and even to short them when they reached swing highs nicely foreseen by Hidden Pivot analysis. We recently attempted this gambit once again as the E-Mini S&Ps approached an important rally target at 1494.50. We came especially eagerly to this task, since we’d just come off a bullish ride from, effectively, 1433.  But discretion prevailed over valor, and we backed away with the futures glowering menacingly near 1500 as last week ended. Unapologetic permabear that we are, a thrust above 1500 would only