Monday, February 25, 2013

If you used the 14.97 'external' peak to get long via camouflage as I'd advised, you could easily have done so using a 15.36 'buy' signal that triggered on January 23  (60m, A=14.54  on 1/17; B=15.77, C=15.05).  My target now is 18.86, but I'll track a long position only if  I hear from at least two subscribers who are on board.  A second opportunity to enter -- also presumably via camouflage -- would come on a pullback to 15.66, the midpoint pivot of the bullish pattern shown. _______ UPDATE (March 6, 10:20 a.m. EST): Having been early to the party, I will now say that it's a tad overdone. My longstanding target at 18.86 was clear and compelling on the daily chart, and so the short-squeeze opening above it today is undeniably bullish. But as far as Best Buy's turnaround attempt is concerned, the jury is still out. Earnings reported last week were not great, but such is Wall Street's overweaning, greedy obsession for exploiting-to-the-absolute-max any new "story" that is even remotely bullish, that the stock has surged simply because the earnings story wasn't as bad as it could have been.  That's the kind of news that passes for a bullish excuse these days, but it hardly makes the company's shares a fetching buy at these levels.  Keep in mind that what had stirred me up in the first place -- a story in Wired magazine last autumn about a honcho from Starbucks whom Best Buy had hired to shake things up -- is no longer viable. That guy quit after a few months, and it remains to be seen whether his 'legacy', such as it is, will enable Best Buy to be the last man standing as big box stores approach their twilight. From a technical standpoint, today's high

We've been nibbling at GDXJ without much luck as it has fallen toward a potentially important target at 13.15. Let's try something a little different this time, buying with-the-trend. You can do this camo-style, using a b-c pullback from just above the look-to-the-left peak at 16.28 that I've highlighted. This trade will work best if the point B high is formed just above 16.28 --- say, in the range 16.29-16.33.  Be ready to buy-stop your way in, since the opportunity could come up quickly if the pullback occurs in the way I've described.  I'll provide tracking guidance if at least two fills are reported in the chat room. _____ UPDATE (February 26, 12:28 a.m. EST): A gap-up opening was too strong to give us good camouflage cover, so I'll assume no subscribers got aboard at the 16.63 entry point shown in the chart. The "buy" signal is on nevertheless, so your trading bias should be bullish for now. Camouflage traders should look on the 15-min chart for prior peaks to leverage. The nearest of them lie, respectively, at  16.91 and 16.96 (a very subtle one: 2/19 at 10:15 a.m.)

We'll back away from this rabid weasel for now, since the gratuitous ups and downs are getting a little freakish, if not to say fetishistically involved with 14000. This is how we've been expecting a top to be formed all along, since there are ten million of us who are oh-so-eager to get short.  However, if we do so at or near these levels, which seems likely, it'll have to be on the basis of Hidden Pivot targets, of which there are no especially useful ones at the moment.

I thought we'd back off for a few days, but the shorting opportunity shown in the chart is my kind of pattern.  Accordingly, I'll recommend shorting 400 shares at 154.56, two ticks below the target itself, using a 154.62 stop-loss.  If the position goes in-the-black by 40 cents, cover half and substitute an "impulsive stop" based on the one-minute chart. (Note: You can substitute puts for short stock, but be careful not to pay up. This implies buying them when GS is within pennies of the target. I am using a price target-based buy because I expect the pivot to work precisely. Put positions should be tied to the same stop as the stock. ______ UPDATE (11:58 a.m. EST): I had a hunch the 43-cent differential between our target and Friday's closing price might be too delicate to withstand the kind of wholesale thievery that takes place on Monday morning gaps. Anyway, you should have done nothing on the trade, since the opening was above our offer and the stop.  Strictly speaking, you could have gotten short and stopped yourself simultaneously on the first trade of the day.  Now that DaScumballs have succeeded in unloading a truckload of shares this morning on widows and pensioners, we see that They have since allowed GS to relapse to a so-far low of  151.38 -- more than $4 below the day's criminally engineered high.  What a sleazy carnival game our "securities" markets have become!