Tuesday, March 5, 2013

A 1532.00 target is the lowest of three we can extrapolate from a series of descending lows, but it's sufficient to represent a breakout above highs from the last two weeks.  The target isn't worth much for trading purposes, although another at 1541.25 would be in play if the first is exceeded by more than a few ticks. Camouflageurs eager to pounce should view breakouts not as hysterical events, but as A-B impulse legs that beget 'x' entry triggers that can be exploited almost risklessly.  Your best opportunities in this case would come from the very subtlest impulsive ABC's that meet our simple criteria.

Shortly before midnight, April Gold has pushed slightly past a minor target at 1579.40, so we'll infer that the larger pattern shown is in play.  Its target is 1590.60, with a 1579.70 midpoint that is this evening's so-far high. Assuming it's surpassed, camouflageurs can use any one of several peaks that emerge clearly on the lesser intraday charts to get long.  Note that it would take an additional push exceeding 1596.50 (a peak recorded last Thursday on the way down) to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of this chart. _______ UPDATE (8:17 p.m. EST): Zzzzzz.  Wake me if the tedium ever ends. So that we're not fooled into a state of attentiveness, let's stipulate that any rally worthy of our eyes exceed the required two prior peaks without a b-c pause on the hourly chart. Currently, it would take a print today at 1596.60. Alternatively, if the futures resume their familiar downward trek, skip the Hidden Pivot calculations and focus on the obvious structural support of the 1554 low recorded on January 20.  ______ UPDATE (March 6, 7:40 p.m. EST): On the 15-minute chart, gold impulsed above a 1584.40 peak from Tuesday, then promptly negated the bullishness of this by creating a minor,  bearish impulse leg.  Bulls hold a short-term edge nonetheless, and camo traders can pursue it via the pattern shown. It's subtle enough for our purposes because of the failure of the point 'B' high to surpass Tuesday's 1585.80 peak.

A recent news story confirms that paper-shuffling is still by far the highest-paying job in America. A Jumbo Payday for Deal Titans was last week’s big story from the smoke-and-mirrors aerie of high-finance. Nine men -- there were no women in the group -- at private equity firms including Apollo Global Management, Blackstone Group, KKR and Carlyle Group will bank more than $1 billion in dividends and compensation for deals they put together in 2012. This may come as good news to, for one, realtors struggling to unload $20 million mansions in Aspen, Bal Harbour and New York City, but economists will find little reason to celebrate. For in fact, all nine of these billionaires combined did not add even a single widget to the nation’s  economic output.  Their relatively modest contribution was to have realized “value” for their own shareholders, chiefly in the form of rising stock prices. The Nine are regarded as Wall Street’s very best and brightest, for sure. But it remains to be seen whether their exalted reputations will survive the next bear market.  For in the investment world, as we know, genius is a rising stock market. And this bull has had plenty of help from a desperately reckless Federal Reserve. It would be no exaggeration to say that the Fed's brand of loosening has made it much easier for the likes of Henry Kravis, Leon Black and Stephen Schwarzman to raise $10 billion for a buyout than for a small-businessman to get a $20,000 loan. Leaving ‘Sage’ in the Dust It’s striking that The Nine have racked up such stellar numbers at a time when the Sage of Omaha himself supposedly has been struggling to find companies worth buying.  Counting the 50% stake he is about to take in H.J. Heinz, Buffett has done