Yes, we're getting close, for sure. But you'll need to check the archive for the precise location of a longstanding target that I've said looks very short-able. It's a 'whisper number' that I've avoided drum-rolling publicly so that paying subscribers can have first crack at it. Keep in mind, though, that all of the potentially important tops I've signaled since this Mother of All Bear Rallies began four years ago have fallen, and odds are not exactly favorable that this pivot will prove to be The One. Still, I would be most surprised if it didn't evince stopping power that is, if not decisive, at least noticeable. Since it is a 'watched' number that we are fixing to short, I'll recommend doing so via camouflage. However, f I were to boldly lay out shorts at a particular price, using a tight stop, I'd short the pivot itself with a stop-loss exactly 2.00 points above it.
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Into the Valley of Death Rode the 600 Algos
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksImpressed by yesterday's rally to new all-time highs? You needn't be. It feels like the Charge of the Light Brigade to me, considering that John Q. Consumer is tapped out and freefalling, saddled with rising prices for nearly everything, higher taxes and stagnant wages. In any case, we've had a specific rally target in mind for some time in the E-Mini S&Ps. Check the archive if you're keen on getting short at what I've warranted as a high-odds number. Or click here to sample Rick's Picks free for a week.
AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:404.24)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksIf this stock's wilding spree yesterday felt exhilarating, take a look at the big-picture chart to see it in a more sobering perspective. A dead-cat bounce? That's what it looks like so far, and although it's always possible that bulls will run with it this time, our expectation is still for lower prices in the post-Jobs era. Specifically, a 394.93 target still obtains, with a possible bounce from 405.71 on the way down. In the meantime, we are still encouraging camouflageurs to attempt shorting the stock if this bounce reaches the 445.25 midpoint pivot associated with D=405.71. Whether you trade it or not, the pivot is a logical place for this spree to end. ______ UPDATE (March 18, 1:00 p.m. EDT): With the broad averages on a wilding spree, DaBoyz obviously have more ambitious things in mind for Apple than I'd imagined. Today's short-squeeze has not only exceeded the 445.25 midpoint resistance, it has created a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart. That mean that any pullback is a 'buy'. It will be an ideal camouflage opportunity if the pullback occurs without AAPL's having exceeded the marquee high at 455.12 (see new chart). _______ UPDATE (March 21): The stock gapped w-a-a-a-y above 455.12 on a short-squeeze opening, mooting our camouflage strategy. For now, do nothing further. _______ UPDATE (April 17): The short-squeeze crapped out in late March at $470, leaving Apple vulnerable to forces that still augur an important low at or very near the 394.93 Hidden Pivot target given above. Today's so-far low, on a $28 selloff, is 398.11. If using camouflage, you can back up the truck near 394.93.
