Wednesday, March 27, 2013

GOOG – Google (Last:781.01)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Keep the 801.13 midpoint support shown in mind if you're keen on bottom-fishing. Since it closely coincides with a structural low at 801.47 that is likely to draw some eyeballs, camouflage is essential.  Because any slippage below 801.47 will be read by our competition as a breakdown, camouflage tactics are all but certain to yield an edge in helping us distinguish between a fake and a true breakdown. _______ UPDATE (9:35 p.m. EDT):  The stock gapped $11 lower on the opening bar, to 801.50, then spent the rest of the day pounding on our 801.13 pivot without breaching it.  The actual low was 801.33, but there was little point in carrying a long position overnight.  With GOOG so precariously perched at the close, it'd be like rolling dice._______ UPDATE (March 31, 11:25 p.m. EDT):  The stock fell over the edge on Thursday and now looks bound for the 781.02 'D' target associated with our midpoint support. Because that would exceed February 26's structural low at 784.40 (see inset, a new chart), possibly freaking out our competition, 'D' can be bought aggressively via camouflage or with a straight bid and a stop-loss as tight as 17 cents. _______ UPDATE (April 3, 2:37 a.m. EDT):  We'll back away for now, since yesterday's short-squeeze iced our bargain-basement bid. The stock had gone no lower than 793.25. ______ UPDATE (April 5): Let's try something else: Bottom-fish the 788.85 target shown (a new chart).  Camouflage is the method of choice here, but if you're feeling lazy, a 788.91 bid for 200 shares will suffice, stop 788.69. _______ UPDATE (12:02 p.m. EDT): The stock is in worse shape than we'd imagined, opening on a gap below 788.85, so we did nothing on the order. GOOG's daily chart is now impulsively bearish and deserving of our close

Developing Thrust

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Index futures were coy as ever Tuesday night, oscillating around the unchanged mark.  My hunch is that they'll get rolling slowly on Wednesday, but that the rally will gain momentum as the day wears on. If the Dow closes up more than 100 point, bears had better jump aside to avoid getting steam-rollered tomorrow and Friday.

HUI – Gold Bugs Index (Last:352.17)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Three weeks of stairstepping has yet to produce a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, not that it would have taken much.  A pop to 372.03, just five percent above current levels, would do it, but failing that, we should look for the Gold Bugs Index to ease lower to the 329.53 target shown. The midpoint support associated with that number lies at 346.89, and we'll infer that the trip down to the target is a done deal if HUI closes below the midpoint for two consecutive days.

ESM13 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1555.500)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The 1617.84 S&P 500 rally target flagged in today's commentary implies that trading should be done from the long side right now, preferably via camouflage. To assist you in this task, I've reproduced a 10-minute chart of the E-Mini S&Ps that contains the kind of subtleties we require when attempting to board such a well-advanced trend. Indeed, an entry signal that I've labeled with an 'x' has been tripped in the last hour. I am recommending that you use the 10-minute bars, as I have, to identify similarly promising opportunities. _______ UPDATE (11:49 a.m. EDT):  In the chat room this morning, an alert 'Kibitzer' signaled a bull trade that is working out nicely at this point.  Here's the recaptitulation: 1) (11:07 a.m.) K: We have a tentative C at 1551 (x= +1.75 points); 11:13 x triggered; 2) RA:  (11:13 a.m.) Thank you, Kibitzer. Off an actual low of 1550.75, entry was signaled at 1552.50. P=1554.00, where half is to be exited. D=1557.00; K (11:19): Midpoint success; RA (11:30): Yes, success indeed. U are out of half, with a 1551.00 cost basis for what remains. Use a fixed stop-loss at 1550.50, o-c-o with an order to close out an additional 25% of the original position at 1557.00.

Full Steam Ahead for Stocks

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

As of yesterday, Cyprus was on its way to becoming a distant concern, pushed off the front page by news about New Jersey’s $338 million Powerball winner and the Supreme Court’s likely endorsement of same-sex marriages. And yet, with euroland’s latest banking crisis out of the way for now, investors acted surprisingly subdued yesterday, pushing the Dow to a modest gain of 113 points.  Our guess is that Wall Street is quietly gearing up for a rip-roaring short squeeze to finish out the week. The broad averages have been hovering near record highs to begin with, but by the time Friday rolls around, we’re betting that stocks will be trading well above these levels, demonstrating yet again that investors haven’t a care in the world. The flip side, unfortunately, is that gold prices are about to head lower, having failed to register much of a pulse even during the most worrisome phase of negotiations to “rescue” the Bank of Cyprus. Not to rain on speculators’ parade, but here’s a number to watch if you’re crazy enough, after all these years, to still be looking for a top:  1617.48, basis the S&P 500 Index.  That’s a proprietary Hidden Pivot target of ours (see chart above), and although we must concede that no such target that we’ve proffered over the last four years has shown fatal stopping power, this one seems likely to produce at least a short-able high. The purpose of these Hidden Pivot numbers is not only to provide precise swing points to get short or long, but to gauge the strength of the underlying trend. In this case, and generally speaking, if a clear “hidden” resistance such as this one gives way easily, it is a sign that considerable buying power remains to be spent. Thus, we would regard