March 2014

When we last looked in on 'Doc Copper', it was to ascertain a 2.7780 target for the composite weekly contract, with a worst-case possibility of 2.4435 if the higher number doesn't hold. The chart shown shows a third possibility -- one at 2.6375 that we should treat as a back-up-the-truck number for purposes of bottom-fishing. Although the futures have been in rally mode for the last two weeks, I seriously doubt they will escape the pull of gravity represented by this constellation of Hidden Pivot supports .  Accordingly, in anticipation of possible opportunities to come, you should set screen alerts that reference the levels I've noted above. _______ UPDATE (April 15): Basis the June contract, I am now projecting more slippage to at least 2.6115.  On the way down, look for tradable bounces near 2.8698; or if any lower, at exactly 2.6685.

Coin-toss odds will obtain once again as the stock markets enter a presumptive seventh straight week of sideways tedium. My gut feeling is that even if this is a consolidation rather than a distribution, the rally that's coming will go only as high as needed to trap bulls badly. That could require little more than a 30-40 point move above the old record highs -- about as much as DaBoyz may be able to squeeze from shorts, given the unlikelihood of genuinely positive economic news. The chart (see inset) shows a 1933.50 target that we have considered before as a possible last gasp for the five-year-old bull market. The target looks just as compelling on the intraday charts -- in this case, a 240-minute -- as on the daily where we last considered it. Get free instant access to Rick’s Picks – no credit card necessary – by clicking here.

A bad dream jolted me awake one morning last week: the economy had crashed, the banks were shuttered, commerce had ceased, the stores were stripped bare and rioting was everywhere. This bleak vision is not unusual for anyone who has imagined what the U.S. economy is going to look like when the ponderous hoax that sustains it has been fully revealed.** What was most troubling about the dream was that the collapse evidently had taken me and my friends by surprise. The survivalist inventory that we were supposed to have kept in our basements had gone unfulfilled. Still worse, the things we needed most were nowhere to be acquired: food for six months, medical supplies, batteries, ammo, emergency generators, toilet paper, etcetera. In the dream, a friend, a successful financial adviser who has provisioned his retirement generously, was scurrying around town on a vintage motorcycle with a sidecar, trying to scrounge essentials that he had not thought to store against a civilizational emergency. A Stark Fact Do we dare doubt that such a day awaits?  If you’re having trouble sorting out the possible reasons why, and if you can’t quite wrap your mind around the certain, deflationary collapse of the banking system’s quadrillion-dollar derivatives bubble, consider just this one fact:  Millions of 20-  and 30-somethings working in low-wage jobs and in debt up to their eyeballs will be footing the bills for the Baby Boomers’ Social Security and Medicare. And now consider this stark fact:  Each and every day between now and 2030, 10,000 Baby Boomers, relatively few of whom are financially prepared for retirement, will reach the age of 65.  If you think there must be a workaround , some path other than mass destitution and tightly rationed health care, then you don’t understand the problem. So why, if

The markets were suspiciously subdued Thursday night, like that critter in 'Alien' before it exploded from a crew member's solar plexus.  Perhaps a big surprise awaits in the form of a humdrum ending to the week?

Yesterday's rally was encouraging, but keep in mind that 37.62 is where the midpoint support-turned-resistance of a larger, bearish pattern projecting to as low as 34.00 lies. You can try shorting there as I'd suggested originally, but whether you do so with a limit order or via camouflage, you should risk no more than a theoretical $6 per round lot on the entry.  Above the stop, consider the prospect of getting long using the labeled external peak at 38.30 to generate a tradable abc pattern.

The futures bottomed yesterday less than a point from an 1833.25 target given here a day earlier. This permitted the timely covering of shorts initiated from near 1850, or possibly from around 1845 if entered just before Thursday's opening.  Subscribers who were in the chat room ahead of the opening bell could have hitched a ride -- worth as much as $550 per contract over the 15-minute life of the trade -- since I posted explicit, step-by-step details in real time, from entry to exit.  The  bounce from the low carried 14 points, and although the relapse that followed wiped out all but a single point of that gain, the futures ended the day on a slightly bullish note.  True, the larger trend is bearish and projects to 1819.75, the minor uptrend shown could still reach 1851.00 if buyers can break free of the 1844.00 midpoint pivot that stymied them yesterday. Either of these Hidden Pivots is shortable, but I'd suggest using the 'camouflage' technique, since the 1851.00 target that is going out with tonight's newsletter could draw some front-runners.  Want to check out the details of yesterday's trade, as given in the chat room?  Get free instant access to Rick's Picks -- no credit card necessary -- by clicking here.

Sellers did some damage to the hourly chart Wednesday, opening a path to the 19.075 downside target shown, or perhaps to 18.930 if any lower. There will be a last-ditch opportunity for this vehicle to turn higher from 19.875, the Hidden Pivot target of a lesser pattern. Please be aware, however, that a rally first to its midpoint sibling, 19.875, can be shorted cautiously. _______ UPDATE (March 30, 6:48 p.m. EDT):  The futures have bounced from 50 cents above the 19.075 target, but it remains to be seen whether bulls have the guts for a decent follow-through.  If so, they should have little trouble pushing this vehicle to at least 19.945, the target of a small pattern that comes from the hourly chart (where A=19.595).

The precise bounce from within a few ticks of the 1298.60 midpoint pivot (shown as a red line) validates the downtrending pattern as well as its 1280.10 target. We can use it as a minimum downside objective for now, assuming the futures don't negate it with a move above the 1317.10 peak I've used as point 'C'.  Your trading bias should be bearish for now, but the target can be bottom-fished aggressively and with the tightest of stops if and when it is reached.

Traders tuned to the chat room yesterday afternoon could have caught a brief rally on the way down, but this vehicle became a short to the 1833.25 target shown when the 1850.25 midpoint from which it had initially bounced gave way toward the end of the session. The intraday low at 1841.50 left the E-Mini a tradable distance from the target, and the opportunity to profit from a follow-through to the downside could expand if DaBoyz run this vehicle higher during the night session as we might expect.