Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Election Mainly a Referendum on Obamacare

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

The campaign has been non-stop since the 2012 Congressional election, and voter turnout is certain to be heavy. It will be interesting to see whether the markets even flinch if there's a Republican landslide. Politically speaking, the best thing that a GOP Senate majority would bring is the elimination of that unmitigated and unrelenting scumbag Harry Reid from the seat of power. It would also set in motion a serious effort to repeal Obamacare, arguably the worst piece of legislation ever enacted by Congress.  Finally, it would deny Obama a chance to tip the Supreme Court even further to the left, since a Senate Judiciary Committee under Republican control would never assent to another Kagan or Sotomayor. Those who profess to see not a dime's worth of difference between Democrats and Republicans should consider what this country will look like if the 'pen and phone' of our arrogant, inept, narcissistic, race-baiting, America-hating President go unchecked for two more years. The pundits, including such usually astute prognosticators as Karl Rove and Larry Sabato, think that although the GOP will win the Senate, the race will be very close in a few states. New Hampshire and North Carolina in particular have been deemed too tight to call. It is understandable that Rove, Sabato et al. have somewhat hedged their bets, since it will always be difficult to handicap the outcome of an election in a country where perhaps half the voters are so stupid they don't even know in what century the Civil War was fought, how many Senators sit in the upper chamber, or why the American Revolution was fought. (See Jesse Watters' man-on-the-street interviews on Fox if you doubt any of this). My prediction is that the election will be a GOP blowout, and that even Hagan and Shaheen will

GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1166.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

I have lower targets outstanding, including a big-picture support at 1125.00, but the one shown at 1141.30 should be used as a minimum downside objective over the very near-term.  Traders should position from the short side until it is reached, but be aware that a rally back up to the midpoint pivot (i.e., the red line at 1198.45) would be neither unusual nor especially bullish. More likely is that it would be a bull trap -- one making gold an even more enticing short than it is from these levels. Most immediately, if you're successful catching a profitable ride south, I'd suggest using some of your gains to create a generous stop-loss for a long initiated at 1141.30, a Hidden Pivot that looks like to engender a bounced that is both precise and tradable.  What would it take to turn the short-term picture quite bullish? Answer: a print today at 1177.30

ESZ14 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2007.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

An unfulfilled target at 2037.50 beckons just above Monday's high, but we should be careful about assuming it will be reached merely because the futures are bobbing around in record territory.  From a trading standpoint, you can take either side of the bet right now. Night owls will likely have the first opportunity, positioning from the long side by using the 2001.75 target shown.  If it is exceeded by more than a point, however, that would indicate sufficient weakness over the near term to even the odds between a long or short bet on the next trade. In any case, stick with the 15-minute chart for trade set-ups, since it's offered plenty of clarity lately as well as price patterns that have done what they ought.  Please note that a rally exceeding 2013.25 would be quite bullish short-term if the futures have not fallen first to at least 2002.25.