Tuesday, November 18, 2014

The Bahb-ster has taken a breather lately, but there shouldn't be much doubt about which direction it will head on the next thrust. This is a coiled rattlesnake that might be fun to play with, and so I'll suggest a Jackpot-type bet, as follows: If the stock pulls back to the 112.31 midpoint pivot in the first hour of Tuesday's session, try to buy four Nov 22 118 calls for around 0.35. I'm guessing they'll be trading for around that much, but you can adjust your bid on-the-fly, based on a price that looks do-able as BABA closely approaches the pivot.  _______ UPDATE (10:33 a.m.): Check the chat room -- as you always should -- for some very substantial price adjustments that were made on-the-fly.  Officially, I'll record 117 calls bought for 0.30 and 118s for 0.25.  Please note that a 108.98 target is in play -- an extreme anomaly, considering the broad averages are trading moderately higher today. _______ UPDATE (November 19, 10:50 p.m.): The calls are a distant longshot at this point, but don't give up on them, since this stock can easily move $5-$6 in a day.

The futures look to be consolidating for a push to as high as 1228.40 over the near term. My hunch, however, is that the implied thrust will start from a lower low than the 1180.80 point 'C' shown.  This means night owls who want to get aboard should wait for a marginal breach of 1180.80, then be ready to buy-stop themselves into the trade on an entry signal that would be tripped exactly 12 point above the new low. This is intended as a 'timed buy-stop' entry, since there can be no justification for abiding theroretical entry risk of more than about 0.50-0.70, no matter what your intentions. Using this tactic, you should stay with the trade only if it goes into the black immediately after you enter, and take a partial profit early in the trade. _______ UPDATE 10:40 a.m.): Gold took off last night without the fake-out pullback I'd expected.  In retrospect, the best way for subscribers to have caught the trade would have entailed using the 'timed buy-stop' tactic described, but at a slightly higher price.

A modest, 2055.25 target that was put in play two weeks ago remains viable, even if progress toward it has mimicked that of a turtle trying to reach the other side of a two-lane highway. I won't proffer any trading strategies for Monday night, since the futures have been oh-so-coy in courting the various 'levels' associated with the target. Sunday night they came down to the precise 2025.25 midpoint pivot before embarking on a feeble, 15-point rally that moved too slowly to be tradable.  One of these nights the futures will simply pop to 2055.25, and that will be that. Trading opportunities from both the long and short side are implied, but I'll leave it to those of you with more patience than I to seize the moment.