DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17281)

Yesterday’s plunge was a rare delight, both exhilarating and unexpected. In recent years, we have seldom seen stocks fall for three consecutive days, and that’s why the weakness came as a surprise. Admit it: It feels right as rain when stocks are falling, since the bull market begun in 2009 is a creature of loose monetary policy rather than of economic growth.  From a technical standpoint, it is ever-so-mildly bullish that the downtrend did not quite reach the 17478 target shown, let alone the somewhat lower alternative target at 17447. My hunch is that this will happen overnight, and we can track it by monitoring the E-Mini Dow futures. The corresponding targets for this vehicle are 17478 and 17450, and the second should be considered in play if the first is exceeded by more than five points. Either can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 4 points. If the lower target is easily exceeded, however, it would imply that more selling impends. ______ UPDATE (December 12, 1:58 a.m.): Thursday’s strong opening-hour rally fizzled with an afternoon sell-off that left a gratuitous hump on the intraday charts. It projects to 17528, or to 17457 if any lower, with 17389 a worst-case target for the day. ______ UPDATE (3:20 p.m.): The Indoos ratcheted down to a 17357 low in the early going, exceeding my worst-case target for today. This has bearish implications going foward. At the moment, however, price action has gone tediously sideways for nearly four hours. _______ UPDATE (December 14, 10:12 p.m.): I missed an obvious target when I gave 17389 as a worst-case low for Friday. As you can see in the new chart, the low occurred just a hair from an easily calculated Hidden Pivot at 17275.  This implies the selling may have run its course, at least for the time being.