Hunkering Down Ahead of January

EST

bulls-thwartedA longstanding E-Mini S&P target at 2270.00 that we used to predict the spectacular post-election rally and its precise high continues to thwart bulls from making any further headway in 2016.  Although we’d been looking to get short near this target toward the end of the week, the futures, true to their nature, have taken a diabolically elusive turn. On Wednesday, they went into a steep dive minutes after the opening bell after taking mincing steps higher for 15 hours. The fact that the plunge came just after the March contract generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart made the sharp reversal even more difficult to anticipate, and to trade. Regardless, shorting by hook or crook ahead of New Year’s Eve still makes sense to me, since the TrumpSanta rally has probably gotten way ahead of whatever positive changes Trump might bring to the U.S. economy in the first six months of his term. An additional reason to expect a tone change on Wall Street next week is that the housing sector looks shaky. The combination of rising home prices due to limited supply, and rising mortgage rates, has already killed re-fi business and threatens to dry up first-time buyers completely. Rising interest rates will also impact auto sales, another key component of the economy. Even if there are a dozen good reasons to be bullish on Trump, the U.S. economy will face some serious headwinds as 2017 begins. Traders should position themselves accordingly, and subscribers should check the chat room ‘Scoreboard’ intraday for real-time trading ideas.

Comments on this entry are closed.

none December 31, 2016, 12:42 pm

The high of 12/26 NYA is not being registered in many updated daily charts, as the opening may have been a extreme ‘derivatives trade’ to the sell side keying off of the NYA Index, as both parties in the derivative market must shake hands at the day’s market high and low point for clearing. The NYA did trade at that high level, and then crashed within minutes of 5%, a major long term signal.

The VIX has cross the 50 and 200 DMA today, this after a major 2+ year low point of 10.93 several trading days ago.
——————
Not a word, as also the past few weekly ‘highest volume’ of the entire Bull market. And, 50% on average of that long term 7 year volume of this entire bull market is made up of HFT volume.
———–
V shape markets are in place, with the Trump low as a trigger point.
——————
Sell markets:
INDU
SP Cash
DX
Buy Markets:
EC
AD
BP
CD
JY
GC
SI
ZB
GSG

Happy New Year!

🙂

TC December 30, 2016, 10:38 am

Rick,

Longtime follower. Do you know what happened to the NYSE on Tuesday? I saw it traded up almost 6% in the morning. This was with the Dow up only 30 points. Then at one second it lost the entire 6% gain. No one is talking about this and this is the equivalent to a 1200 point Dow move. I think I am missing something.

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENYA/?p=^NYA

&&&&&&

My Tradestation chart shows nothing very unusual, TC. The gap-up opening on Tuesday was not really a gap, just two hours’ worth of missing price bars. As for the subsequent selloff (on Wednesday), it was orderly, if a bit steep, and took place in two waves over a span of about 90 minutes.
RA



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