A Tone Change in Long-Term Rates?


With bullion probing rally resistance and not backing off, even with the dollar rising intraday, bulls have good reason to take encouragement. Meanwhile, I would direct your attention to this evening’s TLT tout, which suggests that the felicitous trend in long-term interest rates since Christmas could get legs. I don’t pretend to have a crystal ball, but if this ETF proxy for 20+ year T-Bonds vaults a key resistance in the next day or two, things would be looking up — or rather, down — for interest-rate bulls.

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none February 8, 2017, 6:48 pm

A Tri Star Top is in place, bringing the INDU/SP market to the dates of a technical sell off as towards the market Tops of:



There is a very high probability that a major longer term high to the larger degree has been created.

Rick Ackerman February 8, 2017, 3:19 pm

I’m not buying the increasingly reported-on return of inflation, Seneca — not in the U.S., and most surely not in Europe. An epic deflation is still sitting out there, waiting to be triggered by the implosion of a largely uncollateralized, quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble. A further, irresistible catalyst will be the zero-ing out of deferred, unpayable liabilities in our pension and healthcare systems. These deflationary juggernauts cannot be temporarily monetized like the financial system, since they involve real money sent to recipients each month to pay for real services. More immediately, the bull cycle has peaked for residential and commercial real estate. If these factors add up to incipient inflation, then I am a monkey’s uncle.

none February 8, 2017, 7:57 am

The long term ‘turn upward’ in rates, will take place.

When ‘all’ (fund managers, media, the family butcher) suggest that rates will be low ‘forever more’.


The Congress bill hopper is use to place a law by way of ‘forever’ keeping rates law, for the betterment of society as it will read.

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