Although 2024's steep rally from $69 failed just shy of an important Hidden Pivot target at 88.54 (see inset), I expect a second-wind push to get there, surpassing the key external peak at 88.31 recorded in June 2022. That would create an impulse leg of weekly-chart degree sufficiently powerful to push crude to $100, a psychologically terrifying level in a world where inflation has stubbornly refused to cool off. I am bullish on crude in part because the recent high occurred in too obvious a place -- i.e., slightly below the D target of a pattern that virtually every trader would have observed, and less than a dollar below the June 2022 peak. This doubly obvious resistance' begs to be tested, and so it shall be.
The stock's steepening fall last week put more distance between it and the all-time high a month ago at 430.82. That was just 24 cents from a longstanding target I'd said could cap the bull market begun in 2009. Perhaps it has, although I'd like to see MSFT fall at least 30%, to $300, before I consider the prediction fulfilled. Odds of this will shorten if the new week begins with just slight weakness. Anything exceeding 397.21 to the downside would breach three (!) external lows on the daily chart, creating a powerful impulse leg with devastating potential.
The previous tout suggested the dollar could range-trade for a long time between 100 and 110. However, if it merely pushes above the 107.99 'external' peak shown in the chart, that would command our attention and respect. It would also be something to fear, since a resurgent dollar would put the global economy back on a path to the deflationary bust I've predicted for many years. A rally piercing the 107.99 resistance would be all but certain to hit p=109.66, providing a test of the most important resistance the Dollar Index has faced in years.
The predicted fall to at least 5055.50 occurred with a selling climax on thin volume Thursday night. This set up an all-but-certain relapse after a brief flurry of buying at the opening bell on Friday. The renewed weakness has greased the track for a further fall to p2=4916.50 as the new week begins, but more likely to D=4777.50. A rally first to x=5194.50, however unlikely, would trigger an appealing 'mechanical' short that you shouldn't pass up if you trade this vehicle. Also, the D target can be bottom-fished with a reverse-pattern trigger that can be calculated using an intraday chart.
Bulls continued to lose ground last week, but the weakness was not quite sufficient to push this vehicle beneath the 82.42 point 'C' low of the bullish pattern we have been using speculatively. If the pattern were to hold sway, which is looking increasingly doubtful, an extended uptrend could take TLT as high as 150.22. That implies a spectacular bull market, one driven by vanishing inflation and expansionary yield curves. This seems so unlikely at this point that we should view any upturn in TLT with caution, if not to say suspicion, Realize in any event that it would not be unusual for a bull market to be born in obscurity and for no apparent reason.
I only belatedly discovered the reason for the hard selloff a week ago from 2448.80. That number lies just 0.70 from the target of the very gnarly pattern shown. I still think the June contract has a better than 50% chance of achieving a somewhat higher target at 2514.60 given here earlier. However, we should be very cautious at the moment, since this corrective pattern on the weekly chart suggests the June contract will fall to at least 2309.50 before it finds traction. Worst case would be 2170.20, and we cannot rule it out, but we'll be looking to bottom-fish at p=2309.50 (slightly adjusted from last week) in any case. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 1:35 a.m.): The clowns/thieves/Masters of the Universe who erroneously believe they are manipulating this vehicle were themselves manipulated into a nearly $40 plunge when June Gold fell Monday night to a so-far low at 2308.70 -- less than $1 from the Hidden Pivot target I'd flagged above. The $19 bounce that has occurred so far would need to hit 2348.00 to move the futures out of the danger zone; otherwise, look for a further drop to at least 2239.90 (see my chart), a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished as aggressively as the one at 2309.50.
The sharp bounce from p=27.71 puts a similar reversal in June Gold in a more bullish light. The latter has bounced without having touched the midpoint Hidden Pivot support, suggesting that sellers may have unfinished business. However, Silver reached its p support almost exactly, suggesting it has fully corrected the powerful uptrend begun from 22.19 in mid-February. On balance, I favor the more bullish interpretation, which suggests both vehicles are likely to take out their respective recent highs without first exceeding last week's lows. My rally target remains 30.08, a Hidden Pivot that's equivalent to a 2514.60 target in June Gold.
We're using a 48.55 rally target while acknowledging that this correction could come down to as low as 35.77 first (weekly chart, a=39,82 on 12/22/23). More weakness would trigger a somewhat risky 'mechanical' buy at 39.51, predicated on a stop-loss at 36.49. I am not recommending the trade if it ripens this week, however, since the pullback would be too steep to offer goods odds for a durable reversal, even if it winds up delivering a one-level pop. Please note that a further fall to x=34.98, however unlikely and regardless of how soon it occurs, would set up a 'mechanical' buy that we should not pass up.
I still expect bitcoin to make an important top at 80,546. My confidence is based on the ease and decisiveness of the move through p=48,015. Although there was a brief stall there, Bertie not only popped through it on the next bar, it also came close to touching p2 on the bar before finishing just below it. Taken together, these factors suggest that the D target has a high probability of being achieved. Also, because there are no alternatives for the A, B and C coordinates shown - i.e., the pattern is 'locked' -- 80,546 is likely to work precisely as a reversal spot. Meanwhile, a pullback to p=48.015 should be viewed as a 'mechanical' buying opportunity, stop 37,171. There are ways to cut the entry risk by at least 90%, so don't hesitate to seek timely guidance in the chat room if the opportunity should materialize during regular-session hours.
The stock is entering its fourth week after stalling pennies from a 430.58 target that I first broached here last January. Isn't that sufficient evidence that THE top is in? asked a subscriber in the chat room. Ordinarily, I'd say yes. But this is no ordinary bull market, and we shouldn't underestimate its ability to trick us so that nearly every bull and bear still left in the game gets crushed when it ends. That is a given, and we've seen Mr. Market flex his muscles enough times over the years to become true believers in his ability to bamboozle the majority, especially at important turning points. Who would have guessed, for instance, that the most spectacular bull run in U.S. history would begin almost to the day in March 2020 when the country locked down against the covid threat? And now, there should be little doubt that the bull market will end with a flash of exuberance and bravado that are commensurate with the despair most investors felt in 2020. There is a palpable sense that we are close to a watershed top, but we shouldn't expect our instincts alone to locate it exactly.
