MSFT – Microsoft (Last:421.90)

The stock is entering its fourth week after stalling pennies from a 430.58 target that I first broached here last January. Isn’t that sufficient evidence that THE top is in? asked a subscriber in the chat room. Ordinarily, I’d say yes. But this is no ordinary bull market, and we shouldn’t underestimate its ability to trick us so that nearly every bull and bear still left in the game gets crushed when it ends. That is a given, and we’ve seen Mr. Market flex his muscles enough times over the years to become true believers in his ability to bamboozle the majority, especially at important turning points. Who would have guessed, for instance, that the most spectacular bull run in U.S. history would begin almost to the day in March 2020 when the country locked down against the covid threat? And now, there should be little doubt that the bull market will end with a flash of exuberance and bravado that are commensurate with the despair most investors felt in 2020. There is a palpable sense that we are close to a watershed top, but we shouldn’t expect our instincts alone to locate it exactly.