Current Touts

Mr. Slammy made his appearance late in the day after leaving the futures somewhat shy of the 2514.60 target that we used last week as a bull market lodestar. It will be achieved, rest assured, but not necessarily on our schedule. Friday afternoon's $100 slapdown from the top of a strong rally was so swift and punitive that one might think the solons who regulate the futures markets pass out awards for the most brazen heists by the criminals who control the markets. Their tracks have nonetheless provided a clear technical picture to guide our efforts in trading and positioning bullion. Expect the correction to come down to at least 2309.00, a Hidden Pivot midpoint support. We'll want to bottom-fish there, whether to augment positions or open new ones, so stay tuned to the chat room and/or your email notifications to keep apprised.

Precious metals got bludgeoned on Friday after a strong rally spiked this vehicle to 29.90 around 11:15. The downdraft should not have caught any of you by surprise, since we were already using a 1.09 trigger interval (TI) to warn if intraday weakness looked likely to snowball. It did, but some subscribers might have used the alert not merely to exit or reduce long positions, but to go short. This would have occurred at 28.81, with half of the position still to be covered a 27.72, about 23 cents off the closing low. That is also my minimum downside projection at the moment, the p midpoint support of the corrective pattern shown. As always, an easy move through this Hidden Pivot it would portend more slippage to p2=26.61, the secondary Hidden Pivot. ______ UPDATE (Apr 15, 3:50 p.m.): The futures are perfectly synched with the forecast, having come down to 27.67 this morning before trampolining to a recovery high of 28.98 so far. If they take out C=29.90 without having corrected any lower than 27.67, that would imply this bull run is bound for the next important Hidden Pivot resistance. It lies at 30.08, only slightly above the recent high at 29.90, so the utmost caution is advised when it gets there.  The target is drawn from the weekly chart, where A=18.71 on 9-30-22.

If the beating that gold and silver futures took in the last half of Friday's session was unnerving, we should still be reassured by the robust look of GDXJ's weekly chart.  There are a few reasons to expect the bull cycle begun in September 2022 to achieve the 48.55 target. For one, the impulse leg, although balky at times, ultimately exceeded a key external peak at 42.19 recorded in June 2022. Also, even though the C-D leg stalled at p=39.51 for more than a month, the running start it got after pulling back nearly to 'C' spring-loaded a powerful blast that impaled both p and p2 while also exceeding the pattern's 'B' high. Taken together, these factors should leave no doubt concerning whether 48.55 will be reached. Plan accordingly, and don't get spooked by a hard pullback if it comes. That would be a buying opportunity, and the pattern itself provides ample means to do so with risk under tight control.

TLT looked like hell again last week, as usual. However, I will accentuate the positive for a rare change, as I did in this week's commentary featuring T-Bond futures.  Turns out 2024's downtrend in both vehicles occurred within the context of respective reverse-pattern buy signals. Yes, it's a stretch to think both will turn higher without taking out their 'C' lows, especially since they've been falling since the first quarter of 2020. But if you're willing to consider the contrarian point of view, the picture for bonds has been so gloomy for so long that perhaps it's time to consider the bullish possibility.

Crude remains on track to easily achieve the 88.69 target we've been using for the last six weeks. The relentless rise has embarrassed those who pretend that the Fed's alleged "plan," whatever the hell it is, is somehow linked to observable reality. Powell keeps hinting he will "pivot" just as soon as the economy and inflation show the faintest sign of moderating. Instead, inflation is on the rise again and threatening to steepen with the price of a barrel of oil approaching $90. This silly game would be funny, but for the fact that the global economy can no longer function without credit stimulus or at least the promise of it. It will be interesting to see whether the Fed gooses the money supply when oil leaps toward $100 and joblessness falls to a new millennial low.

The futures have exceeded an ostensibly solid Hidden Pivot target on the weekly chart at 5220.00 by a relatively whopping 13 points (A=2773.00 on 10/14/22). Although this is curious, it is also bullish in theory.  Even so, I will use a bearish reverse pattern for this week's analysis, since I suspect the rocket rallies in MSFT, NFLX and some other erstwhile world-beaters are spent, having achieved equally clear targets without exceeding them. It "feels" like a good time for a top, even if bitcoin's wilding spree looks primed for a further run-up to 80,602, a target introduced last week in the chat room. Concerning the E-Mini S&Ps, a sell signal was triggered when the futures touched the green line (x=5194.50) last Thursday. It implies the futures will fall to at least p=5055.50 0n and possibly to 4777.50 before the presumptive correction ends. That would amount to a mere 10.6% drop -- hardly a bear market. Regardless, our trading bias has shifted to bearish for now, subject to cautious observation of upward abcd corrections. If they exceed their d targets, even in charts of small degree, that would warn that the futures are more likely to take out C=5333.50 than fall to p-5055.50.

The pattern shown projects a rally to at least 439.35. That would torpedo an argument I've been making since January -- i.e., that MSFT would make a bull-market top at exactly 430.58, and that the stock's subsequent fall would take the stock market and the global economy with it. I haven't given up on the possibility that my magic number at 430.58 will ultimately come close to having nailed the bull's last gasp, but the shorter-term pattern shown is just too compelling to think D will not be achieved. It has produced three winning 'mechanical' buys at the green line already and will continue to favor bulls unless a swoon in the next few days takes out C=412.79. Stay tuned.

Although prayer can't hurt, I doubt that it can push June Gold past the 2356.90 target shown any time soon. With the futures peaking just $7 from this daunting Hidden Pivot on Friday, a correction is due soon. We should be prepared for a nasty one, too, since it has taken the June contract more than four years to get there. Even so, we should open our minds to the satisfying possibility that buyers will blow past D with ease. If that happens, accompanied by voracious, insatiable buying, our focus could shift hopefully toward $3000, gold bugs' next dream number. In the meantime, we can use this reverse pattern, with a tentative, worst-case pullback target at 1991.10, to exploit the trend confidently. We'll adjust everything upward if a new high occurs. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 12:54 a.m. EDT): Although the June futures have receded from this morning's 2372.50 peak, the $18 overshoot of so clear a target is significant and at least mildly bullish. When a big-pattern target has been exceeded, we usually look at the target of a smaller 'extension' pattern as an alternative. In this case, the lesser pattern's D target at 2367.50 has also been hit -- and somewhat exceeded -- implying gold should correct for perhaps 2-3 days. Here's the chart.  And if it doesn't?  Ordinarily, I would say June Gold's overshoot of $2372 is quite bullish. But I am all-too-conscious of the fact that subscribers are counting on me to avoid getting crushed if and when the pond scum that Spartacus refers to as 'Mr Slammy' makes his all-but-inevitable appearance. Greatly complicating things is Mr Market's propensity to fuck as many of us as possible, as often as He can. That could mean He continues to push the precious metals complex higher without rest, so that

Silver ended its best week in recent memory at a level that appeared to exhaust the possibilities of a large, bullish pattern begun in October. It would be natural for the futures to pull back, or even to correct to as low as 23.23.  That's the Hidden Pivot target of this bearish reverse pattern, which has played out since last December. The futures would have to fall to the green line (x=26.52) for the pattern to be officially in play, but we can still watch for signs of tiredness in the way patterns both bullish and bearish play out on the lesser charts. Easy moves through midpoint resistances will be the best indicator of the trend, which has been tortuously upward for more than a year. It followed a powerful A-B impulse leg in 2020 that projects to 36.03. Here's the chart, with a highly promising development from last week. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 1:28 p.m.): May Silver has overshot a major rally target at 27.54 by 65 cents, which is bullish. Accordingly, I have raised the 'c' high on the reverse pattern to 28.19, today's so-far high, in order to reset the correction/sell-signal tripwire at 27.10. The new p support, a potentially opportune spot for bottom-fishing, lies at 26.00. ______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 9:51 a.m.): A new high at 28.65 has raised the theoretical 'sell' trigger to 27.56. I am not explicitly recommending a short sale there, just creating a signal to tell us when May Silver may have entered a corrective cycle with the potential to bring it down as much as an additional $3.29.