The 'mechanical' trade that triggered three weeks ago with a drop to x=93.40 has survived a brush with death that saw it fall to within an inch of being stopped out below C=92.01 of the pattern shown. Since then, TLT has achieved a solid gain following a theoretical 'mechanical' entry at the green line. A further run-up to D=97.58 looks like no worse than an even bet at this point, but we'll wait to see more price action at the red line before we attempt to winnow down the odds. Should I keep this symbol on the core list? WordPress failed to publish the TLT tout I'd prepared last week, but no one noticed it, including me. ______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 10:52 a.m.): Two huge gaps to start the week have put TLT in a freefall. This morning's moderate bounce has come from within a hair of a crucial Hidden Pivot target at 91.20, but if it fails, look out below!
The futures missed the 5326.25 rally target last week by 3.50 points, denying us the fruits of a precisely crafted entry trigger but effectively fulfilling the target. It took a month to achieve, so we should expect any correction from these levels to last for at least 5 to 8 days. Any less would suggest bulls are all-too-eager to cut loose. If so the 5428.25 target displayed above this week's commentary can be used as a minimum upside projection. It is just a 2.6% romp from Friday's close.
Although the stock has continued to noodle around near a very major target at 430.84, I'm going to focus on the minor pattern shown, with a 439.35 target. It is clear, compelling -- and entirely likely to be reached, given Thursday's gap up through p=426.07. A pullback to x=419.43 should be bought 'mechanically', and you can also get short at the target if you've held a profitable position on the way up. For now, we'll pretend the 430.84 target doesn't exist.
I don't usually overlay a second pattern on a chart, but in this case my intention was to show how the May futures can be bought at 79.81 for a shot at D=88.69. This is a reverse-pattern set-up, and it can be done with a limit bid and a tight stop-loss, but also with a 'camouflage' trigger on a lesser chart that would limit risk even more. Use extra caution, since it wouldn't take much drama Sunday night to open the futures below d=79.81 of the rABC pattern. If tat happens, a larger reverse-pattern a-b will be in play: a= 78.80 on 1/29/24. It yields a 'd' target at 75.90 that would be the maximum correction from the recent high at 83.18. The target coincides with a voodoo number, so it would be a back-up-the-truck opportunity to get long. The large pattern would be confirmed and corroborated by a bounce precisely from 79.54, the midpoint HP support. Do not share this information with anyone, since that could queer the ABCD/abcd patterns' hidden power over the futures.
The bullish pattern shown is somewhat gnarly, but there's nothing fancy about it, and there is no reason to think the 2306.20 target, which first appeared here a while ago, will not be reached. It should be held in mind as a minimum upside projection for the near term. A mechanical buy now at the red line is problematical, however, since the uptrend failed to touch p2 before it pulled back to the line. I doubt the correction will continue all the way down to the green line (x=2073.90), but that would certainly present an appealing 'mechanical' buying opportunity.
Silver continues to look like a bull with Mad Cow's disease as it makes its way in tortuous fashion to the 27.34 rally target we've been using for the last several weeks. Friday's dirge tripped a 'mechanical' buy at the red line (p=24.76). but like gold, it failed to reach p2=26.905 before pulling back. The stop-loss would be at 23.90, and I think the trade will work. However, I am not recommending it officially because the set-up is not strictly kosher.
Last week's peak missed the 37.15 target of the pattern shown by 27 cents. This is but a minor concern at the moment, but the shortfall is sufficient to suggest bulls were either a little tired or less than true believers. Regardless, because it took more than four months for the pattern to play out, GDXJ is due for a breather of perhaps 8–12 days. If it lurches higher within the next few days, however, and closes above D=38.15 for two consecutive days, that would imply bulls are again ready to rumble,
A 'mechanical' buy at the green line returned a theoretical profit on Friday when the dollar jumped to the red line (p=204.50). This is of no trading consequence, since we don't actually take positions in this vehicle, but it lends a touch of health to the overall appearance of the daily chart. The moderate presumption now is that the rally will continue to at least p2=106.44, and possibly event to D=108.38. Let's see whether bulls can push DXY past the midpoint resistance with vigor, since that would bull up the chart even more.
The futures are topping here, since D=5220.00 is too compelling a Hidden Pivot resistance to simply give way. The fact that the topping process has entered its third, tedious week is evidence not of the bull's tenacity, but rather of the herd's discovery of "our" pattern and target. Even with the sketchy filigree that characterizes the A-B leg, the pattern is still far from gnarly, and therefore overexposed. We can short the futures or use SPY options to leverage the impending plunge, so stay tuned to the chat room and let your interest be known if you care. _______ UPDATE (Mar 18, 4:21 p.m.): The so-far high of what I still believe to be a topping process was 5257, recorded on March 8. However, stocks look primed for an explosive leap on whatever Fed 'news' comes tomorrow, regardless of whether the pronouncement is ostensibly bullish or bearish. I'll be interested to see what the usual dirtbags and scoundrels make of this opportunity, but we shouldn't be surprised if they are able to goose the futures 50-80 points above our 5220 target. _______ UPDATE (Mar 21, 9:04 a.m.): Based on the way buyers impaled p=5276, this short-squeeze blowoff will hit a minimum 5396.25, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown. Any long entered at a lower price will make money, and the pattern is gnarly enough to imply that a short at the target will work, too.
Although AAPL precisely fulfilled a longstanding target at 430.54 on the weekly chart on Friday, the rally still has a ways to go before it achieves an 'extension' target at 456.88 that comes from the C-D leg of the larger pattern. This is how we deal with rallies when they exceed big-picture targets, and the smaller segment should be judged on its own merits without much regard to -- in this case -- MSFT's weekly chart. That implies 456.88 is very likely to be achieved, and precisely, given price action at p. The initial stall there confirmed the legitimacy of the pattern itself, while the easy penetration of p=383 six weeks later strongly implied the rally would continue to D. ________ UPDATE (Mar 21, 10:24 a.m.): However compelling the long-term target at 430.54 might seem, the 439.35 target shown in this short-term picture takes precedence at the moment, since the explosive move past p implies D=439.35 is all but certain to be reached.
