There are no fewer than four bullish patterns at work in the chart shown, so I've settled on the one with the most ambitious rally target. It lies at 5399.75, and it is jumping the gun to assure you the futures will get there before they have even touched the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=5331.38), it seems safe to assume that bulls are not likely to be thwarted. A moment's pause could be fatal to the psychotic energy that has impelled the broad averages heedlessly higher, even as 'bubble' warnings have begun to pop up even in the WSJ and at Bloomberg.com. As always, the ease with which buyers penetrate p the first time they encounter it will tell us all we need to know about trend strength. _______ UPDATE (April 2, 9:38 a.m.): Here's something we've seen only very rarely in the last 15 years, and not at all during the psychotic, suck-everyone-in phase of the bull market begun last October: a bullish pattern that aborted without having reached p, never mind D. The implications are of course bearish, at least for the near term. I take them seriously because MSFT never got more than a few pennies above the 430.58 high I've been saying since last January would mark the end of the bull market. We shall see.
The 'mechanical' buy that triggered when MSFT fell to the green line last Thursday was about as 'textbook' as they come, meaning it is all but certain to deliver a profit unless truly dreadful news greets stocks when they begin to trade Sunday evening. Acting on the signal by purchasing call options would have been a non-starter, however, since fully four days will have elapsed if the stock begins to move as early as Monday. That's why we should never purchase options just ahead of a long holiday weekend. Perhaps another opportunity will arise this week ahead of the stock's presumptive ascent to D=439.35. Stay tuned to the chat room and your email 'Notifications' to keep apprised. And, yes, this does mean my longstanding, ostensibly major target at 430.58 has been diminished by the certitude that a higher target of lesser degree will be reached. _______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 11:13 a.m.): Today's so-far moderate selloff has brought the stock down to the green line for the second 'mechanical' buy signal in three days. The first produced a one-level profit, but we'll be keenly interested to see whether this signal delivers as well. It would be unusual for so well-formed a pattern to fail to reach its D rally target -- in this case 439.35. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 9:48 a.m.): Microsoft has triggered a third 'mechanical' buy this morning since correctively bottoming at 412.79 three weeks ago. Ordinarily, the signal's usefulness degrades with each repetition, and so I am not suggesting that you jump on this 'sloppy thirds' opportunity. However, it will be interesting to see whether the stock fails to achieve a hat-trick of 'mechanical' winners. This would be rare for the stock, which has notched precious few lower lows over the last several years without having completed a
The 2306.40 rally target we've been using for nearly a month looks like a lock-up at this point. April Gold's ascent has been so urgent that there was only one 'mechanical' opportunity to buy a pullback on the daily chart. That occurred with a dip that barely brushed the red line, never mind fell to the green one. Friday's stab above p2=2228.30 was further evidence that a run-up to D has become all but unavoidable. Even so, we should pay close attention to price action near 2290.80, the target of a much larger pattern on the weekly chart. Although I expect the futures to get past it, the closely coincident location of the two targets implies that an important top could form at the 2300 level. Note: The equivalent D target for August is 2344.60, _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 11:28 a.m.): The June contract is closing on a potentially VERY important target at 2356.90! Here's the chart.
Last week's tedious grind eked out only a minuscule gain, but that will have little bearing on the still-strong likelihood of the 27.34 target being reached. A pullback to the green line (x=23.47) would trigger a high-caliber 'mechanical' buy, but it seems unlikely that Mr. Market will gift us with such a succulent opportunity. There will always be opportunities to get long intraday, however, so you should stay close to the chat room and your email Notifications if this vehicle interests you. _______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 10:36 a.m.): Two powerful upthrusts have brought May Silver within easy distance of the 27.34 target. If it is easily penetrated, expect more upside to 27.55, a more daunting Hidden Pivot resistance (Daily, A= 21.24 on 3/8).
The steep rally since early March has alleviated the stinginess of the overall pattern, which remains bullish nonetheless. It projects to at least 42.10 and should be considered reliable for trading purposes. That is notwithstanding mid-February's dip into deep water in the weeks that followed the triggering in January of a 'mechanical' buy at the green line. My hunch is that GDXJ will ultimately push past 42.10, breaking free of a consolidation zone that will have persisted for two years.
The 'mechanical' trade that triggered three weeks ago with a drop to x=93.40 has survived a brush with death that saw it fall to within an inch of being stopped out below C=92.01 of the pattern shown. Since then, TLT has achieved a solid gain following a theoretical 'mechanical' entry at the green line. A further run-up to D=97.58 looks like no worse than an even bet at this point, but we'll wait to see more price action at the red line before we attempt to winnow down the odds. Should I keep this symbol on the core list? WordPress failed to publish the TLT tout I'd prepared last week, but no one noticed it, including me. ______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 10:52 a.m.): Two huge gaps to start the week have put TLT in a freefall. This morning's moderate bounce has come from within a hair of a crucial Hidden Pivot target at 91.20, but if it fails, look out below!
The futures missed the 5326.25 rally target last week by 3.50 points, denying us the fruits of a precisely crafted entry trigger but effectively fulfilling the target. It took a month to achieve, so we should expect any correction from these levels to last for at least 5 to 8 days. Any less would suggest bulls are all-too-eager to cut loose. If so the 5428.25 target displayed above this week's commentary can be used as a minimum upside projection. It is just a 2.6% romp from Friday's close.
Although the stock has continued to noodle around near a very major target at 430.84, I'm going to focus on the minor pattern shown, with a 439.35 target. It is clear, compelling -- and entirely likely to be reached, given Thursday's gap up through p=426.07. A pullback to x=419.43 should be bought 'mechanically', and you can also get short at the target if you've held a profitable position on the way up. For now, we'll pretend the 430.84 target doesn't exist.
I don't usually overlay a second pattern on a chart, but in this case my intention was to show how the May futures can be bought at 79.81 for a shot at D=88.69. This is a reverse-pattern set-up, and it can be done with a limit bid and a tight stop-loss, but also with a 'camouflage' trigger on a lesser chart that would limit risk even more. Use extra caution, since it wouldn't take much drama Sunday night to open the futures below d=79.81 of the rABC pattern. If tat happens, a larger reverse-pattern a-b will be in play: a= 78.80 on 1/29/24. It yields a 'd' target at 75.90 that would be the maximum correction from the recent high at 83.18. The target coincides with a voodoo number, so it would be a back-up-the-truck opportunity to get long. The large pattern would be confirmed and corroborated by a bounce precisely from 79.54, the midpoint HP support. Do not share this information with anyone, since that could queer the ABCD/abcd patterns' hidden power over the futures.
The bullish pattern shown is somewhat gnarly, but there's nothing fancy about it, and there is no reason to think the 2306.20 target, which first appeared here a while ago, will not be reached. It should be held in mind as a minimum upside projection for the near term. A mechanical buy now at the red line is problematical, however, since the uptrend failed to touch p2 before it pulled back to the line. I doubt the correction will continue all the way down to the green line (x=2073.90), but that would certainly present an appealing 'mechanical' buying opportunity.
