Because Microsoft has served us well as a bellwether for the bull market, investors should take heart from the indomitable pitch of the stock’s ascent since late July. When it punctured the midpoint resistance at 545.32 last week, although there was little drama, it did so with the kind of quiet confidence that said, ‘I’ll be back!’ In the weeks ahead, I expect a grinding move higher to the 613.49 target, and a correspondingly steady move for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Although pullbacks since mid-August have not provided any bargain-basement buying opportunities, they have been technically sufficient to work off overbought-ness each step of the way. I will signal in real time nonetheless if an attractive possibility develops, so stay tuned with your dashboard ‘Notifications’ switched on if you trade this vehicle. _______ UPDATE (October 24): A single day of hard selling drove the stock to within inches of the 514.57 correction target shown. With the robust bounce that ensued, that was close enough to suggest that bulls are in charge again, although the big picture is hardly rosy. That’s because Friday’s low breached a downside ‘d’ target at 519.37 on the daily chart while also generating a bearish impulse leg. This implies the current bounce is unlikely to achieve new record highs. If so, the bull market ended on October 13 with MSFT’s record 551.15 high. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 6:30 p.m.): MSFT earnings beat estimates. Total shocker. The criminally orchestrated short squeeze after the close added about $280 billion of vaporous but nonetheless fungible “wealth effect” to the macro ledger. For comparison, that’s about seven times what the war with Iran supposedly has cost the U.S. As of the moment, the short-covering high is 568.03, decisively exceeding the D target of this pattern. It means the rally will continue to at least 599.71, a D target associated with A=213.43 (Nov 2022) on the monthly chart. If MSFT tops there, then so will the Bull Market begun in 2009. Whatever happens, there is little likelihood that buyers will blow past that number.
MSFT – Microsoft (Last:544.26)