Crude

Crude remains on track to easily achieve the 88.69 target we've been using for the last six weeks. The relentless rise has embarrassed those who pretend that the Fed's alleged "plan," whatever the hell it is, is somehow linked to observable reality. Powell keeps hinting he will "pivot" just as soon as the economy and inflation show the faintest sign of moderating. Instead, inflation is on the rise again and threatening to steepen with the price of a barrel of oil approaching $90. This silly game would be funny, but for the fact that the global economy can no longer function without credit stimulus or at least the promise of it. It will be interesting to see whether the Fed gooses the money supply when oil leaps toward $100 and joblessness falls to a new millennial low.

May Crude didn't pull back nearly enough last week to fill the 'mechanical' bid I'd suggested. It still looks bound for an all-but-certain rendezvous with the 88.69 Hidden Pivot target shown. Although the rally stalled for a while precisely at the 78.85 midpoint resistance, once the futures finally got past it, there was no stopping or even slowing the ascent.  A move to the target would exceed the 88.31 peak recorded in June 2022, creating a fresh impulse leg of monthly-chart degree. $100 crude, anyone? _______ UPDATE (April 6): The May contract shredded its way past p2=83.77, the secondary Hidden Pivot shown in this chart, all but guaranteeing the target will be reached. The stock market's heedless ascent as soaring energy prices threaten to kick inflation back into overdrive ranks right up there with the crazed exuberance of the summer of 1929. 

I don't usually overlay a second pattern on a chart, but in this case my intention was to show how the May futures can be bought at 79.81 for a shot at D=88.69. This is a reverse-pattern set-up, and it can be done with a limit bid and a tight stop-loss, but also with a 'camouflage' trigger on a lesser chart that would limit risk even more.  Use extra caution, since it wouldn't take much drama Sunday night to open the futures below d=79.81 of the rABC pattern. If tat happens, a larger reverse-pattern a-b will be in play: a= 78.80 on 1/29/24. It yields a 'd' target at 75.90 that would be the maximum correction from the recent high at 83.18. The target coincides with a voodoo number, so it would be a back-up-the-truck opportunity to get long. The large pattern would be confirmed and corroborated by a bounce precisely from 79.54, the midpoint HP support. Do not share this information with anyone, since that could queer the ABCD/abcd patterns' hidden power over the futures.

For all its wacky histrionics, crude remains one of the most tradeable vehicles tracked on this list. The pattern shown, with an 82.48 rally target we've been using as a lodestar, produced a second 'mechanical' buy at x=77.26 last week that went on to rack up significant gains without much fuss or stress.  Paradoxically, most of the trades come from thrusts into 'discomfort' zones that are so predictable that they should be called 'relaxation' zones. I will continue to provide real-time guidance for this vehicle that is commensurate with the interest subscribers show in the chat room. ______ UPDATE (Mar 18, 10:24 a.m.): I am raising my target to 83.26, since buyers are not having much difficulty surpassing rally targets of lesser degree. The pattern's point 'B' high is more sausage-y than I would prefer, but I'll use it anyway because the pattern itself looks gnarly enough to evade widespread detection and use. The target will be shortable when reached, but your trading bias should be bullish until then. If you were looking for yet one more negative factor to slow down the psychotic bull market rampage, crude's effortless waft above $80 barrel could be it, since it threatens to raise the price of everything tied to energy prices -- i.e., virtually all goods and services sold on this troubled planet. _______ UPDATE (4:03 p.m.):  The rally from the Feb 5 low has gone out of control, killing my enthusiasm for getting short. It looks to be headed for 86.15; however, even on the five-minute chart, there was just one dicey chance to get long today using an rABC trigger. ______ UPDATE (Mar 20, 5:33 p.m.): See my 12:45 post in the chat room for an equivalent target for the May contract, plus actionable guidance. 

Crude's tortuous rally since mid-December projects to 82.46, based on the ABCD pattern shown. It is good enough for government work, but as you can see, the point 'B' high failed to push above late January's 79.09 high. This 'sausage-y' formation has been remedied by using a one-off 'A' low, although the result is a pattern that falls short of ideal. What makes it usable and even trustworthy is the pullback to the green line precisely from the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=78.99). Now, a pullback to the red line can be bought 'mechanically' with a stop loss at 77.83. _______ UPDATE (Mar 9): Although the 82.46 rally target remains viable, the pattern's C-D leg has grown too tired to offer a good opportunity for bottom-fishing with a 'mechanical' bid at the green line. 

Crude is the most agitated trading vehicle I track, but paradoxically the easiest to trade. We can practically count on every tradable price reversal to come from within a tick or two of an in-your-face-obvious prior high or low -- i.e., from smack-dab-in-the-middle of a 'discomfort zone'. The pattern shown has a rally target at 80.30, and we know from experience that the political powers that be and their lackeys will be there to impede the uptrend, lest gasoline prices become problematical for voters nine months ahead of the election. The pattern is also an inch from triggering a textbook 'mechanical' buy at the green line. Watch it develop if you are bored. _______ UPDATE (Feb 23): The green line (x=76.71) could have been used to make as much as $2,200 per contract with little difficulty, since the futures made a nearly two-level move after dipping slightly below the line on Wednesday morning. A subscriber reported having used UCO to do the trade. Here's the chart. The 80.30 target given above remains valid.

The reverse pattern shown nailed the recent top nicely, although it did not furnish the information that might have explained crude's latest conniption. Now I'm hearing that last week's plunge was discounting a 'peace' settlement between U.S./Europe and Israel's most murderous enemies. Netanyahu is too polite to tell those who hatched this suicide pact without respecting his or Israel's existential needs to shove it up their ass, but he will surely ignore it. If this is indeed what is driving oil at the moment, we'll tune it out until price action returns to its wonted, psychotic state. _______ UPDATE (Feb 11): $80/barrel has been pivotal to crude's swings since last August and is still the number to beat. The pattern shown projects slightly above it and would give bulls more credibility if the 80.08 target is exceeded, especially on a closing basis.

We should probably expect crude quotes to reverse upward whenever pump prices slip below $3, since that would be just a little too peachy for the approximately 233 people who drive in the U.S. We can only hope the 78.86 Hidden Pivot target shown contains crude's current surge, since a breakout above that number wants reasons to explore a void on the chart that extends all the way up to $85/barrel. At the level, pump prices will be pushing $4/gallon, so let's cross our fingers and hope Houthis and the Blow-upfish don't up their game in the Persian Gulf. .

February Crude has been on a 'mechanical' buy signal since early December, when a pullback first touched the green line. The futures have since gone flat, dancing a jig a 'x' that suggests DaBoyz are in no hurry to let it loose. Geopolitical mayhem, including the targeting of tankers in the Suez, has had surprisingly little effect, and we hesitate to ascribe this to ordinary forces of supply and demand. But with China's economy weakening and the U.S. headed as always into recession, perhaps that is the explanation. Crazy world! In any event, the futures have pussyfooted at the green line for long enough that the buy signal, even if still theoretically valid, is no longer enticing.  Look for quotes to fall below C=64.21 over the next eight to ten weeks, pulling gas prices down below $3 in most states.