CLK24 – May Crude (Last:85.45)

Crude remains on track to easily achieve the 88.69 target we’ve been using for the last six weeks. The relentless rise has embarrassed those who pretend that the Fed’s alleged “plan,” whatever the hell it is, is somehow linked to observable reality. Powell keeps hinting he will “pivot” just as soon as the economy and inflation show the faintest sign of moderating. Instead, inflation is on the rise again and threatening to steepen with the price of a barrel of oil approaching $90. This silly game would be funny, but for the fact that the global economy can no longer function without credit stimulus or at least the promise of it. It will be interesting to see whether the Fed gooses the money supply when oil leaps toward $100 and joblessness falls to a new millennial low.