SIH12

Yesterday's rally missed creating a fresh impulse leg on the daily chart by just three cents, but bulls could easily remedy the shortfall soon with a push exceeding the 34.520 peak recorded on February 8. Notice that it would require little more than that to take on three more peaks from November, above which the bad guys would have no pockets of supply to help them suppress Silver's increasingly natural buoyancy.  More immediately, a Hidden Pivot at 35.635 beckons -- an odds-on shot now with the p midpoint at 34.140 midpoint already breached. _______ UPDATE (2:52 p.m. EST):  Today's very powerful, $1.35 rally came within 2.5 cents of the target flagged above, so it should be considered fulfilled. A 27-cent pullback has ensued. The slight undershoot of 35.635 suggests some consolidation -- perhaps a day's worth -- will be needed to set up the next big push. If oil keeps rocketing higher, however, Silver will likely be pounding higher sooner.

I've set a screen alert at 34.065, since a print at that price could help extricate the futures from the rut in which they have been dithering for nearly a month. Notice that a rally touching that number will have exceeded no fewer than three 'external' peaks, smoothing the way for bulls to trample and mangle the bad guys for a change. They'd still need to close above 34.140 for two consecutive days to clinch it, however. That's a midpoint Hidden Pivot, and it is associated with a 'D' target at 35.635.

Yesterday's apparently gratuitous swoon recouped a nasty intraday loss and then some, but the rebound would need to go a further 50 cents, exceeding a 34.060 'external' peak recorded on February 9, before we infer that anything interesting is happening. In the meantime, the p midpoint support of the pattern shown (assuming the so-far point 'C" holds) would be a good place to look for a buying opportunity via 'camouflage' on the lesser charts.  Click here for details concerning the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar, where you can learn to do this stuff yourself.

Silver's choppy price action over the last three weeks has eaten way probably no more than half of the hefty supply deposited on the charts during the first half of November.  You can see how tired it looks, the moreso because the last few upthrusts have done nothing to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the larger intradays. That would take a stab to 34.690 on the next effort, but failing that, the yellow warning flag is due to be unfurled. (Click here to learn more about the Hidden Pivot Method we used to forecast and trade futures and stocks.)

Although price action in the last week or so has been impacted and rangebound, most of it has occurred as corrective relative to a 33.740 peak from December 2 that was impulsively exceeded last Thursday.  The bad guys should take this purposeful stall as a warning that they will not be able to hold Silver back when it converts  the bullish energy it's been building up and storing for nearly two weeks into thrust. When the impending surge takes out the key, pre-Halloween peak at 35.680, bears will have nowhere to hide.

The lesser charts are in an impulse-leg duel that portends nothing special over the next day or two. Bulls held a small edge early Tuesday morning, but short-term potential would likely be limited to 34.085, the 'D' target of the pattern shown.

Friday's downdraft was impulsively bearish, but the good news is that sellers needed a rally and a running start to breach the required two prior lows. Also, their follow-up push failed by two ticks to reach the 33.455 midpoint support. This is sketchy evidence on wish to base a bullish outlook for the near term, but it's worth noting nonetheless.  Alternatively, if bears have any real gumption, they'll finish what they started Sunday night or Monday by pushing the March contract down to the midpoint pivot's 'D' sibling at 32.915. That number is valueless for a straight bottom-fishing bid because it lies three ticks from a marquee low  at 32.930 low recorded last Tuesday, but it will suffice as a place to try to get long if you do so using camouflage.  This implies getting long on the first uptrending x signaled from within perhaps 1 to 2 cents of 32.930. I'd suggest using a chart of 5-minute degree or less.  Click here for information on how you can do these trades yourself.

A 35.535 Hidden Pivot target drum-rolled here earlier remains my minimum rally target for the moment, but the futures will first need to build a launching pad at 34.235, the midpoint, to exit the atmosphere.  We cautiously exited a winning day trade yesterday for a $3100 paper gain, necessitating re-entry if we are going to capture the last part of the move. Judging from the diabolical price action since yesterday morning, finding good camouflage to get long again is going to be tough. My suggestion is to use the 5-minute chart (see inset), which contains enough subtle hooks to get us aboard. Since risk, in theory, will be penny ante, you can ignore the fact that none of  the peaks along this evening's retracement is a true 'external'.

March Silver appears to be building thrust for a shot at 35.535, the 'D' target of the pattern shown in the thumbnail mini-inset.  The 34.235 midpoint resistance that would need to be surpassed first is above Tuesday's spike high, so we'll  need to make our move below that level, camouflage-style, if we're going to get aboard with a minimum of stress. For that purpose, I suggest leveraging a B-C pullback from just above the obscure, look-to-the-left peak at 34.030 shown in the larger chart.  The 'X' entry trigger could come up quickly, so a state of nimble alertness may be the key to getting executed. _______ UPDATE (11:30 a.m. EST):  An enticing camouflage setup did indeed form on the pullback from just above 34.030. Since a chat-roomer has reported a fill based on my numbers, I'm establishing a tracking position herewith. Referencing the 3-minute chart, there was a picture-perfect B-C retracement from just above the 34.030 'external' peak I'd flagged. Here are the coordinates: A=33.770 at 10:09 a.m. EST, B=34.085 at 10:24, and C= 33.950 at 10:33. All three are single-bar, yielding an X entry trigger at 34.030. P=34.110, and D=34.265 ( a pivot that held bulls back for about 20 minutes, but which has bullishly given way).  Since 'D' of the camo pattern has been reached, you should be holding 25% of the original position, half of it having been exited at 34.110 (P), and another 25% at 34.265 (D). Assuming a single contract remains, and imputing to it paper profits so far, its effective cost basis would be 33.635. For now, use a fixed stop-loss predicated on the futures creating a bearish impulse leg on the 3-minute chart. As of this moment, that would imply an unpaused down-leg exceeding an external low at 33.950 recorded this morning at