SIK12

Silver's rally from last week's low has been tentative so far, although its heart would appear to be in the right place because the move began from within three ticks of a 29.940 Hidden Pivot target pre-advertised here. What it needs now is an unpaused thrust that takes out the two labeled peaks, since that would generate a bullish impulse leg of daily-chart degree. Using the far less ambitious standard of the 15-minute chart, buyers would still need to push this vehicle above 31.215 today to generate even a faint spark.

The picture-perfect 'camo' pattern shown in the chart signaled a long entry at 31.235 for Pivoteers who were on the alert Friday morning. Since my tout was not likely sufficiently explicit to have done much more than pique your interest, however, I won't be establishing a tracking position. (Also, as a practical matter, a 'camo' entry on a pattern of this size would have entailed initial risk of $500 per contract. Lowering theoretical risk to our rules-based threshold of $70 (or so) would have required entry on a chart of lesser degree.) From an analytical standpoint, night owls should note that the 'C-D' leg has already exceeded its 31.335 mispoint resistance, implying that this burst will continue to at least 31.535, its 'D' sibling. Any higher would suggest bulls are eager to run as the new week begins. _______ UPDATE (12:22 p.m. EDT): Interesting coincidence, but the above tout went out Sunday evening exactly as May Silver was achieving its ill-fated overnight high. Unlike gold, however, the subsequent plunge cannot yet be called a swoon because the lost value has yet to be recouped.  The action is short-term bearish, since it generated a downtrending impulse leg on the hourly chart.  However, if Silver is to get back on a bullish track, we should see a harbinger of this in the form of a rebound from the midpoint Hidden Pivot of (30m) a=31.380 at 2:30 a.m. on 4/30; b=30.550 at 10 a.m., and c=?.

May Silver has trampolined $1.30 since bottoming earlier this week at 29.925, three ticks from a well advertised Hidden Pivot at 29.940.  If you're not on board already, look for subtle 'camo' opportunities on the 5-minute chart that occur within the framework of the correction from yesterday's 31.260 high.  Looking at a somewhat bigger picture, the next surge would need to carry above the tiny external peak at 31.685 shown in the chart to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the larger intraday charts.

So far so good.  The May futures have taken a healthy bounce from within a penny-and-a-half of the 29.940 pivot I began drum-rolling here on April 5.  We'll continue to trust but verify, however, since there's no room for hope or hubris in this game. You should be aware in any case that if Wednesday's low should fall, we'd be looking at more slippage to at least 28.680, a fresh 'D' target calculated from the next point 'A' high up the ladder.  Camouflageurs looking for a way to board should focus on the five-minute chart, where a suitable 'external' peak at 30.800 occurred yesterday at  10:20 a.m.

Although I still expect the May contract to carve out a potentially important low at 29.940, the 30.265 'D' target of the lesser pattern shown in the chart promises to reward bottom-fishers as well. Camouflage is suggested using a 5-minute chart or less, and you should start looking for the turn anywhere below 30.285.  Risk no more than $70 theoretical per contract on entry. I will establish a tracking position for your further guidance if at least two traders acting on my advice report fills in the chat room. _______ UPDATE (11:45 a.m. EDT): Silver has gotten obliterated today in the space of just 15 minutes, crushing the 30.265 pivot so that no camouflage entry was possible (or desirable).  The 29.940 pivot below it was probably inevitable anyway, so that's where you should look for an actual bottom. I can't confirm it at the moment, but it seems likely the hysterics are related to some statement that our factually challenged Fed chairman has uttered before some panel.

A downside target at 29.940 first broached here nearly three weeks ago remains my minimum downside objective. Tightly stopped bottom-fishing will be warranted there, but camouflage is the preferred way to go. A conservative approach would use a chart of 5-minute degree or less to find an uptrending ABC from within 2 cents of that price. Keep in mind that theoretical risk should be held to $70 per contract or less. Rather be a trader than a lurker? Click here to learn how.

Zzzzzzzzz.  As noted here earlier, Gold will need to pull Silver out of the doldrums, since it's made no headway on its own for nearly a month. As before, to get long I'll suggest using a 'b-c' pullback from just above the 32.090 peak-let labeled in the chart. However, the odds for success would improve if the approach to that peak is sufficiently choppy to make a marginal breach of it — say, by a tick or two — look initially like a double top.

A resurgent gold could pull silver out of its funk today, but there would be fewer handholds in the latter for camouflageurs if this should occur. My suggestion would be to use a b-c pullback from just above the 32.090 peak-let I've labeled. However, the odds for success would improve if the approach to that peak is sufficiently choppy to make a marginal breach of it -- say, by a tick or two -- look initially like a double top.  You can learn to do this stuff yourself, probably more quickly than you might imagine. Click here.

The 29.355 target noted here earlier should continue to serve as a minimum downside target for the near term. Oscillations around the 'p' midpoint associated with that number have now stretched to a month, implying that bulls are not going down without a fight.  Although that's encouraging for the future, it won't necessarily prevent a washout low in the days ahead.