Friday's rally mirrored gold's, meaning you shouldn't get your hopes too high. The pattern suggests that once the bounce ends and silver resumes its downward course, it could eventually go as low as 54.735. That's 20% below these levels, meaning a whole 'nother bear market could unfold before Ag finds a bottom. If that sounds overly bearish, we can allow for the possibility that bulls have turned things around if the July contract surpasses the 77.355 peak recorded on June 2. For current purposes, however, we'll plan on trading with a bullish bias if and when the futures push above last week's 68.800 peak. That would generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, brightening the short-term outlook.
Silver's immediate prospects are no better than gold's, although we have a clearer benchmark for the latter that can help us gauge trend strength. The pattern shows July Silver in a descent targeted on 60.795. A precise bounce there seems unlikely, as it coincides with the clown low of 61.66 recorded on March 23. However, it will be good enough for government work for those who want to try bottom-fishing with an rABC trigger of small degree. Because p-75.450 was not brutalized on the way down, there is also a chance the futures will go no lower than p2=68.23, where they made their low on Friday. However, any upward reversal would need to hit 79.400 to be considered significant.
July Silver recently flashed the same buy signal as Comex Gold, but so far the result has been a thudding flop. Silver's failure to get off the launching pad suggests that gold's robust liftoff will not get very far. (Even so, a limited move could still produce a theoretical profit of $100,000 or more, based on a traded recommendation contained in last week's gold tout.) I'll be looking for silver to drag June Gold down after the latter has achieved a 4636 objective that lies about $70 above Friday's settlement price. The corresponding target in July Silver is 88.01, a big leap from here. The pressure on gold is not likely to ease up soon, since it is being caused by liquidations by countries strapped to pay for soaring energy costs.
Silver's chart is similar to gold's, but with a significant difference from a Hidden Pivot perspective: a 'mechanical' bid at the July contract's green line (x=69.744) would be less likely to achieve the d target at 93.995 than gold would be to reach its corresponding target. That said, a one-level move, from x to p, looks like it will be a good bet. Expect both Gold and Silver to continue falling at least to x, where 'camo' bids will be warranted. ______ UPDATE (May 22): Last week's funereal dirge changed nothing in my outlook or the trading guidance given above.
With strong back-to-back rallies on Wednesday and Thursday, the futures made significant progress last week toward the 93.995 target shown. Although we were able to get long in Gold using a similar pattern, July Silver's recent dip did not quite reach the green line (x=69.744) to signal a 'mechanical' buy. It left the station without us, but that only shortened the odds of a move-to-target. A relapse to the green line (x=69.74), however unlikely, can be used to get long using a 61.65 stop-loss.
The bullish pattern shown projects to 93.99 and corresponds to the one accompanying the current Gold tout. A key difference is that Silver did not signal a 'mechanical' buy, or at least not one that would still be "live". That could actually be construed as a sign of strength, since the futures did not pull back far enough to touch the green line (x=69.744) where we initiate most of our 'mechanical' trades. If it does so this week, however, don't hesitate to buy there, albeit with a 'camo' trigger that would spare us the approximately $40,000 of entry risk associated with a textbook stop below 'c'.
Although silver's price action has been somewhat more subdued than gold's, I've adjusted the bullish pattern on the weekly chart to produce a rally target commensurate with gold's. A similarity you should be prepared to exploit is that a pullback to the green line would create a very attractive 'mechanical' buying opportunity. We would want to cash out of half the position on a one-level bounce back to p=77.530, since the price action on the chart suggests Silver will be more challenged by gravity to sprint toward d=93.850 once it has left the starting block at the green line.
Silver has made better headway than Gold toward the nearest important rally objective, in this case 93.850. However, the move has still been a drain on our patience and more than a little stressful since, like gold, the futures will always be subject to one of those nasty downdrafts that inflicts all bull markets during lengthy consolidations. The mildly good news from last week is that buyers popped this vehicle through an 'external' peak at 82.760 recorded in mid-March on the way down. The move was impulsive and implies that the next leg higher will achieve the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 85.690.
Although the blitzkrieg rallies of late 2025 are fading from memory, the bull market that energized them is still alive, although shuffling along with a more mature gait and stride. Bulls are certainly taking their time getting to the 86.105 garget shown, but it seems likely to be hit later in April. This event will provide an important test of a key Hidden Pivot resistance, since the target is the terminus of a clear and compelling rABC (reverse) pattern. It should offer tradeable resistance in any case, but we should hope for a decisive breakout above it if the long-term bull is to be presumed viable ahealthy.nd
I've used a pattern similar to the one in the latest Gold tout (see above) to project a rally over the near term to at least 86.105. The previous tout implied the futures would already be there, but I don't recall what I was thinking at the time to suggest that the rally would be so steep. It has already triggered a 'mechanical' buy that paid off with a more than $6 leap. However, if the futures should dip to the green line a second time, I'd suggested taking advantage with a bid there and a 61.20 stop-loss. This implies more than $3000 of initial risk per contract, so a small-pattern trigger is strongly recommended to cut that down by as much as 95%.
