Silver

$SIK24 – May Silver (Last:24.84)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Silver continues to look like a bull with Mad Cow's disease as it makes its way in tortuous fashion to the 27.34 rally target we've been using for the last several weeks.  Friday's dirge tripped a 'mechanical' buy at the red line (p=24.76). but like gold, it failed to reach p2=26.905 before pulling back. The stop-loss would be at 23.90, and I think the trade will work. However, I am not recommending it officially because the set-up is not strictly kosher.

SIK24 – May Silver (Last:25.38)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

No change. The 27.34 rally target given here earlier still obtains. The initial upside penetration of p=24.765 was hardly decisive, but that is insufficient reason to believe the target won't be reached. Buyers are going to take their own sweet time getting there, though, and that would likely hold true if the futures swoon to x=23.478, generating a 'mechanical' buying signal. It would likely be good enough for government work, but don't expect to cash out for a partial profit soon after getting long.

SIK24 – May Silver (Last:24.525)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I characterized last week's price action as 'mildly discouraging' in the chart (see inset), but compared to gold's stellar performance, Silver's dirge was not merely discouraging, but pathetic. The rally stalled almost precisely at p=24.76 of a pattern that projects to 27.34, and I can offer no assurances that the resistance will get pulped next week. Whatever happens, I doubt that gold can go much higher without dragging silver along. Please note that a pullback to the green line (x=23.47) would trigger an appealing mechanical' buy, stop 22.18.

SIK24 – May Silver (Last:23.91)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Silver badly lagged gold on Friday, but I've given it the benefit of the doubt nonetheless with a bullish rABC pattern that can be used to trade the May contract. Minimum upside is to p=24.28, with a D target at 26.32. The pattern is gnarly enough to be used for positioning a 'mechanical' bid on any one-level pullback. As always, a decisive thrust past p would imply the target is likely to be reached. ______ UPDATE (Mar 5, 6:30 p.m.): Silver continues to lag gold, but not badly enough to worry about. Today's strong start exceeded the D target of a minor pattern but still fell short of p=24.76 of this pattern and an 'external peak at 24.56 from January 2. Look for the correction to come down to 23.16 and reverse if it exceeds 23.80.

SIH24 – March Silver (Last:22.98)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I'd expected a modest pop to the 24.08 target of a reverse pattern to start the week. Instead, March Silver stumbled as it emerged from the gate, disappointing bulls yet again and providing yet more evidence that the bull market from hell is on its own time. My hunch is that the target will be achieved, but only after the futures have come down to the 22.385 target of the small rABC pattern shown. This calls for bottom-fishing with a 'camouflage' trigger, meaning an abcd pattern of small degree (the 15-minute chart should do).

SIH24 – March Silver (Last:23.475)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Friday's blast through p=23.03 clinched more upside to at least 24.08, the unexciting target of the pattern shown.  That would amount to a rally of just 60 cents, but if the futures thrust past this 'hidden resistance', we could look for a test of the peak at 24.895 recorded on December 22. It's too early to start counting our chickens, especially given the way the futures have underperformed since early December. But our bias will be bullish for now. Since the last correction would have trashed a 'mechanical' bid at the green line, I won't suggest attempting to buy there if the opportunity presents itself.

SIH24 – March Silver (Last:22.594)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The futures are on a reverse-pattern buy signal triggered nearly three weeks ago at the green line (x=23.06). They haven't done much since, other than disappoint, but the signal remains valid nonetheless until such time as the March contract drops below C=22.04.  My gut feeling is that the trade will work, delivering at least a one-level ride to p=22.08. However, I'd be tempted to try again with a tighter reverse pattern if sellers should stop out C. A voodoo number sits about 30 points below it and could be useful for those inclined to trade this vehicle and who are familiar with voodoo set-ups.

SIH24 – March Silver (Last:22.796)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Last week's rally to the green line (x=23.15) generated an enticing signal to get 'mechanically' short, but it went unanswered because silver hasn't exactly been a hot discussion topic in the chat rooms. 'Spartacus' offered a link to an ostensibly bullish chart, but only tentatively so. The chart shown in the inset had more immediate consequences, but it remains to be seen whether the so-far one-level move finds its way down to the 'D' target at 21.45. I doubt it, but a further fall to at least p2=22.02 is neither illogical nor unlikely.

SIH24 – March Silver (Last:22.872)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Last Thursday's pop to the green line (x=23.154) triggered a very promising 'mechanical' short, by which I mean to imply that the pullback from it has about an 80% chance of coming down to at least the red line (p=22.58) where partial profit-taking would be warranted.  I missed the signal because I was focused on a pattern with a lower point 'A' high that needed a run-up to x=23.295 to trigger the short. We'll respect the signal in any case, starting the week with a bearish bias and a theoretical downside target at D=21.455.

SIH24 – March Silver (Last:22.71)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Although Feb Gold had the decency to leave us with a little hope, Silver is not being so kind. Its clean destruction of the midpoint pivot (p=22.868) leaves little room for doubt about whether the weakness of the last month will continue on down to the 22.01 target shown. In the meantime, we should plan to get short on a blip to the green line (x=23.295), since the 'mechanical' aspects of the trade look promising. The pattern may also be gnarly enough to use D=22.015 for bottom-fishing.