July 2009

Is the dollar breaking down? The burden of proof has returned to the bulls, since DXY has been unable to generate any impressive impulse legs on the hourly chart since bottoming in early June. Now, some bearish impulse legs have begun to occur on the hourly, so we'll use the _____ target shown in the inset as a minimum downside objective.  The sibling midpoint of that number is ____, a support that was approached last week within 0.10 points. If it gives way this week and is exceeded on a closing basis, a further decline to at least _____would become an odds-on bet.   

Apple looks likely to cruise on up to at least 157.53, the nearest Hidden Pivot above with any potential stopping power.  Shorts from that level could use a stop-loss s tight as 15-20 cents.

There's a bullish target for the Dow Industrials in today's Side Bets, but the Indoos will first need to push above a daunting peak made in early June. Bottom line:  Technical signs point higher, but we should monitor the rally's vital signs on the lesser charts, since this would be a natural place for the bear rally begun in early March to fail.

In just a week's time, T-bond futures have given up more than half of their impressive gains from the June lows, creating a nasty impulse leg on the intraday charts in the process. Now, they are probing for support which, from a Hidden Pivot standpoint, could materialize as high as _____, or at ______ if any lower. However, if the lower number is exceeded on a closing basis, we could see further weakness over the near term to as low as _____. _______ UPDATE (10:52 a.m.): The 115^14 target caught the low of this morning's swoon by a single tick. The futures have since recovered by nearly a full point, but if they should revisit the low and close below it, _____ would become the new downside objective.

Gold As Insurance (Following is the third installment in a series of articles by Chuck Cohen, a seasoned and highly successful investment consultant who lives in New York City. We will be featuring Chuck’s thoughts regularly at Rick’s Picks in order to expand our coverage, in particular, of junior mining shares, a core area of his expertise. In the coming weeks, Chuck will take up the topics of gold as a core investment, and gold as a speculative vehicle. Today he tackles gold’s usefulness as insurance against financial calamity“. RA) No One-Size-Fits-All Strategy In spite of the sharp drop in shares over the past nine years or so, most investors remain firmly committed to common stocks. Mutual fund statistics show that very few holders have pulled their money out of their funds. And the recent “Big Money Poll” in Barron’s shows that the big guys are even surer than  they were even at the very top.  It is clear that investors have been stirred, but far from shaken, by the decade’s decline and by our faltering economy. And gold? To many investors and even professionals, buying gold is like traveling to Myanmar or northern Pakistan: Few dare to venture there. The truth is, that to our Ivy League and Keynesian educated financial community, gold is viewed as a superstitious... Read the Rest of the Article | Comments *** Money management There are systems that are based upon money management alone.  The principle  is basically the 1/2 way to the wall principle.  If each time you go 1/2 way to the wall you will never get there.  I have heard so many say that they will take 10% loss or a 5% stop.  That like the 1/2 way to the wall theory is, if each time you take a 5% loss you

I received this info in a news letter from Fourth Avenue Financial.  I have permission to redistribute it.  Ira Here are some key statistics regarding the debt burden of the US: •    US official debt is $11.3 trillion. That is over $37,000 per citizen or nearly $150,000 for a family of four. This represents an astronomical 80% of our 14 trillion GDP. •    Unfunded national debt that is not accounted for is well north of $50 trillion. That includes $10.5 trillion for Social Security promises, $39.5 trillion for Medicare and Medicaid promises and $8.4 trillion for prescription drug coverage. •    Household debt is over 100% of US GDP. It was only 40% in the severe recession in the mid 70s. •    Alarms go off when nations have budget deficits that exceed 5% of their GDP. The US is heading towards a 13% deficit for fiscal 2009. Perennial defaulters like Mexico and Argentina have 2.9% and 3.6% deficits respectively. This is a good point to remind you that US GDP as well as tax receipts are plummeting. •    There is an estimated $643 trillion in hidden and unregulated derivatives still floating around seeking victims. •    US citizens have lost close to $12 trillion in “wealth” in the last year and a half. •    A mere three US states have sufficient revenue to balance their budgets. The rest are basically insolvent. •    The US Treasury is putting out debt instruments in spectacular amounts trying to keep their ultimate Ponzi scheme afloat. More than half of this year’s national budget has to be borrowed. A choking $1.85 trillion is on the auction block. •    The global demand for US debt instruments has fallen off a cliff. The Fed-Treasury complex is now buying our own debt in a desperate end game strategy. •    Rising interest rates will

July expiration could exaggerate whatever trend develops today, but the market is also likely to be fixated on Google, since it is one of the few large companies doing well without TARP money or smoke-and-mirrors. My bias remains bullish in any case, and I will continue to tie it to specific numbers in the E-Mini S&P. _______ UPDATE: We neglected to consider that the trend has been...trendlessness; the mood, the asphyxiating ennui of mid-summer.  No question that July's expiration is exaggerating all of this.

The futures bounced from a low yesterday of 934.50, the precise  midpoint of a corrective pattern projecting to 930.80.  The latter number is a buy, even if there was no evidence the futures are about to give up that much ground before resuming the uptrend.  Camouflage will be tough to find if you want to board with-the-trend, but I'd suggest using a 939.30 print as a breakout indicator.

The rally off the recent low near 300 shows promise, but we'll break out the bubbly if and when it clears two peaks made since early June, the higher of which lies at 373.52.