July 2009

GCQ09 – Comex August Gold (Last:928.20)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

A midpoint support at _____ is equivalent to the one I've flagged in SLV, but if you bottom-fish there a stop-loss no wider than 0.40 is advised. A downside breach would imply more selling to come and, presumably, a test of the _____ low recorded on June 22. Alternatively, the futures would need to touch _____ to negate the targets, and ____ to turn the lesser charts (i.e., 15-minute and lower) unambiguously bullish. 

SLV – iShares Silver (Last:13.35)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

There's a midpoint support at ____ that we can bottom-fish with a _____ bid for 200 shares, stop ____. If the stop is hit, look for the selling to continue to ____. If the stock gets within three cents of that price, buy four August 12 calls (SLVHL), good through Monday.  If you want to park a limit order with your broker, a price of _____ for the calls would be a decent buy. I've included a snapshot of an option calculator that shows how I estimated fair value for the August 12s with the underlying shares trading around _____.

ESU09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:917.75)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Dueling impulse legs left a slightly bullish bias Tuesday night that had the potential to reach _____ in the early going Wednesday.  It would take a bit more than that, though -- specifically, a print at ____ -- to alleviate the prospect of boredom by refreshing the bullish trend on the hourly chart.  If I have underestimated short-squeeze power that may still be lurking, keep in mind that the futures could conceivably hit _____ in a pre-holiday surge.

Don’t Be Fooled by Gold’s Tired Look

– Posted in: Free

Gold futures eased lower yesterday, apparently too tired for the time being to continue treading water. The Comex August contract settled at 927.40, down a little more than one percent on the day.  If you're a long-term investor looking to do some bargain-hunting, however, we'd advise waiting for even better prices, since it looks as though the futures could fall to as low as 899.00 over the next 6-8 days. That would be a back-up-the-truck buying opportunity as far as we're concerned, since the downside in bullion seems limited for now. The 899.00 target is a "Hidden Pivot" support, and it appears capable of engendering a tradable bounce. Although that number is not yet a lead-pipe cinch to be reached over the near term, it would become an odds-on bet following a two-day close beneath a less important "hidden" support at 924.00. For the record, the absolute worst we could see over the next month or so would be a test of late April's lows near 882.   Incidentally, we don't regard price declines in gold as a sign of weakness; rather, we see quiet, steady accumulation that seems to be in no hurry to launch the moon shot that we all know is coming someday. This is evident in the chart above, which shows how comfortable gold has become at a cruising altitude above $900. That's where gold futures have spent the last five months, but even if they fell out of that range, descending to as low as $800, you can see for yourself that it wouldn't significantly change the long-term bullish look of the chart.  Not Jumping the Gun We're not so sure about the broad averages, however. Yesterday we turned the spotlight on Goldman shares, which have served as a reliable bellwether in 2009. The stock is