DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:79.16)

Prechter’s bullish call on the dollar was all over  the Web yesterday, based mainly on the kind of sentiment indicators from which one might reasonably infer that just about everyone is bearish on the buck right now. Since Bob Hoye is one of the few exceptions, it behooves us to pay close attention to the charts. My gut feeling is that the rally is a bit too pat to be the real McCoy, coming as it did off a low that slightly exceeded mid-December’s key bottom at 77.69. What this suggests is that the thrust has been more short-squeeze than anything else — but not, it should be emphasized, a very powerful one.  In any event, we’ll use 79.78 as a bullish trigger for today and Thursday. The number was given here yesterday and represents a look-to-the-left peak recorded July 15 on the way down.