August 2009

Expect the next  thrust to take the futures up to a tradable top at 1.4192, a Hidden Pivot that references 1.3416 (May 17) as an 'A' low on the hourly chart.

Apple is stealing up on a 170.55 rally target that could show some stopping power. Long-term longs should pay heed, and traders can short there with a stop-loss as tight as 15 cents.

Yesterday's gratuitous ups and downs left the Dow a little less than 200 points shy of the 9476 target we've been held in mind. More immediately, there's a lesser resistance at ____ that we can use to gauge the strength of any uptrend that develops today, and another at ____ if the first number is breached by more than 3-4 points. Alternatively, the Indoos would need to drop below _____ today to turn the hourly chart bullish.

My minimum downside target over the near term is 115^14.5, but the usefulness of this Hidden Pivot for bottom-fishing has been compromised by its close prximity to an intraday low made a week ago. Alternativly, a 116^19 print overnight or in the early going Thursday would turn the lesser charts quite bullish.

There's a midpoint support at _____ that night owls can use to bottom-fish, but I'd risk no more than three ticks on this, bidding ____, stop _____.  If the stop is hit, that would be telegraphing more weakness down to as low as _____ over the very near-term.  Although the 1008.25 rally target is still valid in theory, its potential usefulness has been invalidated by tedium.

We were looking to get short at 95.61, but let's lower our sights for now to a lesser Hidden Pivot at ____. Buy two September ____ puts, which should be trading for around _____. You can use a limit order at that price if you'd prefer to park the order with your broker, but be sure to stop yourself out if the underlying stock touches _____.

Stocks were suffering their first setback in a while today, and gold was down too. Even so, the latter looked like a good bet to forge higher in the weeks ahead and to achieve a minimum $1016, a Hidden Pivot target that we were able to identify on the daily chart. Regarding the broad averages, even a cursory look at the E-Mini S&Ps’ hourly chart revealed potentially serious damage. Although the forecast remains bullish, we found reasons to monitor the ES hourly chart closely, since price action at the C-D midpoint of this correction could be revealing.

Our calendar spread will make us shorter if SLW is above $10 at expiration, since the August 10 calls we are short, currently trading with a delta value of 60, will be at 100 deltas. Accordingly, I am recommending that for every four calendar spreads held, you buy two September 7.5 calls (SLWIU) for 2.75/2.80 before the close. They are currently offered at 2.80.

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