SIN10 – July Silver (Last:18.975)

A retracement target at 18.685 given here earlier can still be used as a minimum downside objective for the near term, although a print exceeding 19.015 would invalidate it.  Please note that a decisive breach of the support would put the futures in jeopardy of falling to as low as 18.355.   Alternatively, we should ask no less than a rally to 19.475 today before we infer that bulls have regained control of the lesser charts.  That benchmark accords with a benchmark given today for June Gold and corresponds to a May 14 look-to-the-left peak on July Silver’s 5-minute chart. ______ UPDATE (12:49 p.m. EDT):  The downside target was breached by 3.5 cents, but the selling has given way to a bullish impulse leg that seems more threatening to bears than to bulls.  Accordingly, we’ll use 18.575 as a downside target if the bad guys get second wind.  That would leave 9 cents of room beneath the so-far low for bulls to turn things around.  They could also achieve this — decisively — with a print today or tomorrow exceeding 19.445.