Are We to Believe Gulf Doomsday Talk?

Will the oil gusher in the Gulf eventually destroy all marine life, as oilman Matthew Simmons asserts, or will the disaster instead be contained once BP’s relief well comes online sometime in July or August?  Simmons, a peak-oil proponent and no stranger to controversy, has been warning that a second well cannot alleviate the problem because most of the oil, now estimated to flow at around 60,000 barrels per day, is coming not from the well bore but from innumerable ruptures in the sea bed around the Deepwater Horizon site. Because of this, he says, there are only two possible options: allowing the well to run dry — a process that would take 30 years and destroy the Gulf of Mexico and the ocean;  or nuking the site, melting the fissured seabed into a glassy cap.

Oil-covered bird in the Gulf

We have been attempting to verify his claims using our own sources. One of them is Dave Patterson, a petroleum reservoir and operations engineer who works for Moyes Co., a Houston-based energy consulting firm with no direct involvement in the BP project.  In contrast to Simmons’ end-of-the-world talk, Patterson says he has “absolute confidence” that the relief well will work. Based on everything he has read, seen and heard, Patterson, a Moyes director, says there’s little evidence to support Simmons’ worst-case scenario.  “Yes, it is a delicate operation, “ he notes. “Hitting a target 17 inches wide at 18,000 feet is always going to be difficult. But the people who are doing it have a 100% track record,” and there are two wells being drilled for redundancy. Patterson says that all the evidence he’s seen indicates that the main leakage is straight up the well-head and not through fissures. And although capping the gusher posed a risk of rupturing the casing and losing control of the shutdown, that’s why BP wasn’t more aggressive about it to begin with, he explained.  Patterson also noted that the increased flow over time is attributable, not to a widening network of fissures, as Simmons has claimed, but to the severing of a bent “riser” pipe that had restricted output.

The Russian Connection

Which narrative are we to believe?  It does seem odd that no one has either confirmed or refuted Simmons’ most frightening claims.  It is also difficult to believe that, two months into the disaster, only he and few others are privy to facts that imply, essentially, that the world is doomed. Simmons’ information reportedly came from some Russian scientists who were brought in by BP to inspect the sea floor. The Russians not only have expertise in using nuclear devices to cap blown-out gas and oil surface wells, they also have bathyscaphes capable of exploring the Deepwater Horizon site a mile down. Supposedly, the Russians were allowed to view the site only after signing government documents that forbade them from reporting their findings to the American public or the news media. Their inspection tour a couple of weeks ago resulted in a “dire report” prepared for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin by Anatoly Sagalevich of Russia’s Shirshov Institute of Oceanology.”  These details were noted in a news story by one Sorcha Faal at a web site called “Before It’s News.”  According to Ms. Faal, the report warns that “the Gulf of Mexico sea floor has been fractured ‘beyond all repair,’ and the world should begin preparing for an ecological disaster ‘beyond comprehension’ unless ‘extraordinary measures’ are undertaken to stop the massive flow of oil into our Planet’s eleventh largest body of water.”

Renegade Engineer

We have recollections of similarly grave warnings being shouted from the rooftops by the CEO of a Bay Area failure-analysis company in the thick of efforts to head off a Y2K computer disaster that never came.  At the time, working as a senior reporter for a firm called Off-the-Record Research, we covered the Y2K story for institutional investors who paid upwards of $100,000 a year for OTR’s customized reports. The publicity-hungry CEO insisted that a global disaster lay ahead and that no amount of remediation could prevent it. Being an engineer himself, he had some impressive facts, figures and stories to back up all of the fear-mongering. One story he told concerned a fatal fire on a deep-sea drilling platform that supposedly occurred when an embedded sensor far below the water’s surface malfunctioned. But when the Y2K episode failed to produce even a mote of real trouble, the CEO was forced to resign in disgrace.  He wasn’t the only “expert” on the wrong side of the Y2K story, either.  The high-powered Gartner Group hyped some stunning damage predictions that proved to be as fantastic as those of the bloviating CEO.  Gartner was so egregiously wrong about Y2K that it’s a wonder the company did not become the laughing stock of the consulting world.

And now, with no malice intended toward Matt Simmons personally, we pray that two months from now, we are asking ourselves why we even bothered to pay him any attention.

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  • mijadedios June 24, 2010, 6:36 pm

    I’ve been researching some claims and came across that name- Sorcha Faal. Apparently it’s not a she it’s a he, and he’s a computer programmer, Psy Op extraordinaire. Here is a site that has documentation on it (he/she) http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread304918/pg1
    on the other hand what is happening in the gulf is of great importance. I think it’s going to be very dangerous to live in the area. I just saw a youtube video that grieved me, you can check it out here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvXd49G3daQ

  • Rich June 21, 2010, 9:51 pm

    Corexit rhymes with wrecks it…
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corexit

  • Rich June 21, 2010, 8:49 pm
  • rockingham June 21, 2010, 8:24 pm

    Rick,
    Furthermore……the relief wells are due in early August. My understanding is they home in on the gusher well and can make a few attempts at hitting it. After a failure the drill bit is pulled back and over the course of a week it takes another shot at the gusher well. The gusher well has a big magnetic charge sent down the steel casing to act as a homing beacon for the relief drill bit. So I see a few misses accompanied by plenty of nail biting and drama.

    If all these attempts fail we will be in mid-late September by then. Will any hurricanes have kicked up? September 11th is the peak of hurricane season and this year should be higher than average. If the right kind of hurricane comes along it can paint some of the Gulf states black. Not my original imagery, I think Simmons said that. America will be the laughing stock of the world. I can imagine the foreign newspaper cartoons with the Gulf states in black ink. This impotency and weakness might inspire enemies to attack US assets same as Obama has signaled Israel’s enemies he doesn’t mind them harassing Israel.
    So that’s more on why USD down and gold up if relief wells fail. Then what do we do to fix it? Failure will hurt the Obama-Democrat party in November. Obama will be tarred with failure which will only be fair since his initial reaction for weeks to the blowout was to do nothing about it and avoid all association with it because something might stick.

  • Rich June 21, 2010, 8:12 pm

    0 and BP may want Cap&Trade for higher energy prices…

  • Dave June 21, 2010, 8:01 pm

    As one of the guys who worked on remediating the Y2K problem I can state confidently that nothing happened simply because folks were made aware and fixed things before the any problems ocurred. If we’d done nothing, for sure we would have seen some of the predicted disasters.

    &&&&&&

    As one of the guys who reported on the remediation effort and who talked regularly with many hundreds of system managers across the spectrum of American business, I can say that most of the problems were uncorrectable in advance of Y2K because the problems were related mostly to the bazillion embedded sensors that are in nearly all machinery and electronic devices these days. For instance, most hospital dialysis machines had a chip that shut the machines down when scheduled maintenance was needed. Unfortunately, none of the manufacturers had provided sufficient information to guide the hospitals in replacing these chips, whose specs varied not only from unit to unit, but from one serial number to the next. In the end, the hospitals simply accepted reduced treatment capacity over the crucial time period around New Year’s Eve. They unplugged the questionable dialysis machines, then powered them up again on January 2.

    Power turbines similarly had too many embedded sensors to reckon with, especially since a failure by even a tiny, obscure sensor could have caused a major outage. In the case of deep-sea drilling platforms, many crucial sensors were too difficult to reach, and drillers were understandably reluctant to pay divers $900 an hour to pry a bunch of random “samples” loose. And although securities exchanges and banks did weekend trading simulations with their calendar clocks pushed forward, it was impossible for them to know whether all of the brokerages and branches were 100% compliant. Big manufacturers like Russell (i.e., athletic wear) — a model Y2K problem-solver at the time — triple-checked all of their suppliers for Y2K compliance, but they could never be sure whether all were indeed compliant. Whereever there was a question, Russell temporarily stopped doing business with the supplier.

    In the end, there was no disaster simply because the chips with date-function were either smarter, or less crucial, than had been thought.

    RA

  • Richard Oliver June 21, 2010, 7:53 pm

    What bothers me the most about drilling deep wells….is how Matt “Peak Oil” Simmons nor ANY mainstream media, admits to the fact that there are no “fossilized” dinosaurs or ferns 30000 feet under the earth. Fossil fuel is one of MANY scams laid upon us by Govt’s and corporations.

  • warren June 21, 2010, 7:18 pm

    Simmons = hysteria = science fiction.
    However, the oil is still spilling (leaking) into where it does not belong. It doesn’t have to kill all sea life. It only has to kill enough of it to make what’s left too expensive to find, catch, buy, or whatever.

  • rockingham June 21, 2010, 6:21 pm

    The relief wells are not a lock especially if this oil/gas reservoir is super high pressure as some have been saying. If the relief wells fail I see the US dollar going down due to a blow to confidence in America and visibly wrecking the Gulf states economies. Gold up as the situation gets more dire as more of the oil pollution hits home. Ruining the Panhandle and all of Florida’s West Coast as tourist destinations

    &&&&&

    My thoughts too, Rockingham. RA

    • Rich June 21, 2010, 8:07 pm

      Alex Jones, C2C, Jeff Rense and Lindsey Williams crisis alarmism worth taking with enormous grains of salt. Name any of their hysterical predictions that came true. If they said the sun was coming up tomorrow, would look out the window first.
      Meanwhile BP on record saying 177 year-old CAM blowout preventer failed, and NLC, a BX, GS, XOM LBO that used to treat Chicago water with aluminum salts, right up there with fluoride in toxicity, citing Feds to deny lawsuits claiming 1.3 M gallons of Corexit four times more toxic than oil.
      Both stocks in red, with primary downtrends despite bargain hunters touting them…
      Meawnhile food and energy prices continue to rise…

  • FranSix June 21, 2010, 5:59 pm

    The disaster of the Gulf oil pollution by British Petroleum probably deserves a certain amount of hysteria. The hysteria over drill baby drill was no less insane, now that I’ve seen the campaign footage.

    What’s probably worse are the pending acrimonious debates whether peak oil is true or not. Its all so irresponsible.

    And the money printing goes on in the hopes of propping up the oil price.

  • norman June 21, 2010, 4:10 pm

    Simmons has lost my respect with these comments, to the extent that I now do not trust his prior work.

    They are drilling the relief wells to intersect just above the hydrocarbon reservoir. Of course there is no other route to the surface other than the drilled holes, if there were then there would not be any hydrocarbons trapped in the first place. Plug the holes with cement and end of problem.

  • Rich June 21, 2010, 4:01 pm

    Has anyone heard the one about a joint Cuba, Iran, N Korea, Venezuelan mini sub torpedo strike on the Hyundai South Korean built and financed RIG rig?
    Also a Sorcha Faal Russian disinfo special:
    http://moreminimal.com/2010/05/hoax-deepwater-horizon-north-korean-mini-sub-hoax/
    Surprised T Boone Pickens not joining Matt Simmons peak oil Wormwood rap. Both with significant stakes in currently uneconomic alternate energy like windmills, expecting either $300 oil or the US taxpayer courtesy of Cap&Trade to make them whole. If we had money for every disinfo prediction Sorcha Faal made, we might be as rich as Carlos Slim, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates combined.
    Meanwhile we’re carefully accumulating a few puts (DIA, CAM, NLC) at lows while enjoying the GLD SLV SPX ride with trailing stops. Sort of like skiing cornices…

  • mario cavolo June 21, 2010, 3:59 pm

    “…they also have bathyscaphes capable of exploring the Deepwater Horizon site a mile down…”

    …the above statement as an example of business and money coming far before safety and interest of the societies of the world. With so much at stake, why after 60 + days hadn’t a bathyscaphe already been arranged to go down there and take a closer direct eyeballs look?; As kids we all watched Jacques Cousteau and friends doing so numerous times just to look at weird deep sea fish, you would think this disaster was of substantially greater consequence. Perhaps the robot cameras offer a high enough resolution and detail that there was no need, but I doubt it. There are countless additional examples of offered assistance, cooperation and partnership that were never accepted and arranged by those responsible for this nightmare.

    Rick gets another literary nod for using the word “bloviating”.

    Yes…very tough to stay short…Cheers, Mario

  • JPM June 21, 2010, 3:49 pm

    Rick, Y2k was more of a scam than a serious problem.
    On the other hand, just for starters, 20 billion USD are already needed to calm down people affected by this disaster.
    Thus you should not waste words to compare them.
    Here we are talking about one Exxon Valdez a week, imagine it compounded. And the fact that Russian help is needed, makes me repeat what I told you last month,
    namely that this could become worse than Chernobyl,
    and that in such a case we don’t need silly doom prognoses for 2012.

    Best regards,

    JPM

    &&&&&&&

    Y2K was not a scam, but rather an outbreak of mass hysteria based on certain true facts. It was taken very seriously by all industries, and they invested tens of millions of man hours getting ready for it. The banks, stock exchanges, hospitals, power and water utilities, manufacturers did a series of simulations, sort of like fire drills, starting more than a year in advance. RA

    • JPM June 21, 2010, 8:14 pm

      Rick, in my opinion, it hasn’t been a mere coincidence that Nasdaq at 5000 blew up by 1st April 2000. I have been working with computers, large and small, since 1978 in Argentina and whoever I asked about my take on Y2k in the late 90’s agreed with me. Of course, the hysteria as you call it, meant that the label Y2k-safe sold zillions and acted as the lever that gave the Nasdaq, dotcom included, their final push.
      Remember the tulips?

  • Celty June 21, 2010, 3:05 pm

    The sea floor fractioning make little sense. The resevoir itself is another 15000 feet below the sea floor.

    Also, if the oil were gushing from new fissures, wouldn’t the pressure from the pipe itself show a decrease? Ever wash a car with a leaky hose. Same principal really.

  • Brian K June 21, 2010, 2:21 pm

    Patterson says he is “absolutely confident” the problem can be fixed. I hope he’s right, but people who are “absolutely confident” scare me a bit. Sort of like the absolutely confident clowns at the Fed and the Treasury.

  • smith June 21, 2010, 2:19 pm
  • smith June 21, 2010, 2:15 pm

    This is the ‘real’ y2k problem, not due till 2038….

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem

  • japansmith June 21, 2010, 2:06 pm

    This is all that has to be said about Sorcha Faal …..

    http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread304918/pg1

  • Mercury June 21, 2010, 2:00 pm

    Rick, I applauded you when you offered links to doomsday reports and I applaud you today for offering an alternative perspective. It’s not waffling, it’s called objective reportage. When dealing with an issue that few of us have the technical understanding to sort through, the best course is the one you’ve taken…give both sides a fair airing. I don’t want to turn to information providers who offer the financial–and existential–equivalent of a doctor who softens terminal news so I don’t feel bad about life. Good job!

  • Steven June 21, 2010, 1:01 pm

    Many people believe “Sorcha Faal” doesn’t exist and her “reporting” is fraudulent:

    http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread304918/pg1

  • John June 21, 2010, 12:48 pm

    Isn’t bird flu supposed to get us first?

  • PML June 21, 2010, 12:24 pm

    Maybe this article will clear things up..P

  • Benjamin June 21, 2010, 10:24 am

    Maybe this has nothng to do with anything related to the gusher, but I just read a story over the weekend in which the Russians were once again calling for a “better” reserve currency, or basket of in which of course the ruble would play a larger role. Could “New Saudi Arabia” be trying to take advantage of bad news for their own oil industry and, by extension, the possibilities for their ruble in this basket of reserve currencies that they never seem to shut up about?

    Well, whatever the Russians and their visiting engineers are up to these days, I have 100% confidence that “all marine life” (which I assume means the Atlantic) will not perish because of this. I’m also 100% confident that far from all marine life in the Gulf of Mexico will even be affected.

    http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/oilspill/oil_spill_gallery.html

    These NASA images, while not 100% conclusive of the size and depth of the oil slick, show most of it concentrated right where one might expect it to be: on the coast, Louisiana’s in particular. This isn’t surprising, given the location and the currents. And even if the floor gives out, there’s no reason to think that the area of greatest concentration will change. Most marine life will survive this.

  • Daman Prakash June 21, 2010, 8:47 am

    The Y2K problem was boost to many Indian software enterprises who believed that problem could be simply solved with adequate changes in old COBOL programming. Many talented Indians hired by these Indian enterprises landed at U.S. shores to address the issue. What happened thereafter is a part of history as software personnel and enterprises from India have attained global respect.

    Likewise there are innumerable geologist and experienced engineers with requisite expertise world over and I am sure the problem can be addressed. Optimism and enthusing people at work will help. They should be allowed to address the problem fearlessly. Senseless pessimism will not take us farther. It shall be a bigger disaster if humans lose hope.

  • keith June 21, 2010, 6:30 am

    I drilled water wells for 5 years which is much less complex of course but I understand the general idea behind drilling.

    Simmons states, that the relief well will not work since the casing has been damaged or “blown out”. I don’t understand why that would make a difference because they are going to intercept the well 1000’s of feet down into the rock formation. Even if there is no casing there at all so what? The only logical thought would be if the rock formation is so porous that when they pump the grout it simply goes into the formation. Even if that is the case then they just keep pumping and pumping until it does seal off the formation and then seals the bore hole. If the rock was fractured that much to begin with it would never hold the gas and oil reservoirs for millions of years.

    Point is, I don’t follow Simmons reasoning on why it won’t work without the casing. Come to think of it, he never gave a reason why… he just said so. If someone could explain I would love to hear it. I think the relief well should work provided their pumps are stronger than the pressure at the reservoir. Cement grout will do the rest.

  • SDavid June 21, 2010, 3:53 am

    Until this is resolved, we have to seriously consider worst-case scenarios as far as I am concerned.