DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:82.53)

Yesterday’s decline in the dollar confirmed a new daily pattern projecting as far down as 80.98, which would be a three-month low.  The dollar’s peak on June 7 coincides, not surprisingly, with the important Euro low of the same day, and the two currencies have been trending strongly in opposite directions since then.  The midpoint of the dollar’s pattern (82.22) is above the low for the move (82.08), which is also the “B” point of our pattern.  Therefore a bounce off the midpoint would look like a successful retest of the low followed by a potential trend change.  However, if the midpoint is surpassed, Hidden Pivot analysis tells us to expect the “D” target to be reached.  This would most likely correlate with the Euro breaking through its resistance level.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)  _______ UPDATE (1:57  p.m. EDT): The dollar index bottomed one tick below the 82.22 midpoint and then rallied sharply.  The September dollar index futures, whose price levels are offset slightly from those of $DXY, also bounced from a penny below its corresponding midpoint.  The rally was good for more than $800 per contract. _______ UPDATE (March 20):  Yellen’s speech yesterday sent the dollar soaring. She did not say anything intelligible, let alone meaningful, and so one might infer that the dollar’s reaction was — as usual — based on delusions and hallucinations long cherished by the mindless herd.