GCQ10 – August Gold (Last:1243.10)

August Gold (GCQ10) price chart with targetsThe futures remain in a delicate recovery, having topped two ticks beneath the 1249.00 rally target flagged here yesterday.  Odds favor more weakness over the near term. Even so, I’ll recommend bidding 1230.80, stop 1230.40, if the futures fall to that price without having exceeded 1248.80 to the upside. The rationale for this trade is shown in the accompanying chart. _______ UPDATE (10:36 a.m. EDT):  A flurry of weakness stopped us out this morning for a loss of about $40.  Our 1230.80 target was a midpoint pivot tied to a ‘D’ at 1212.80 that should be viewed as a “back-up-the-truck” buying opportunity. The next stop below is 1223.30, but it’s possible the futures will hold here, at least for today, since they may simply be homing in on the “structural” support represented by Tuesday’s low, 1227.60. _______ UPDATE (1:10 p.m. EDT):  The decisive breach of 1212.80 by $7 has created a bearish impulse leg of daily-chart degree. The last time this occurred was exactly a year ago. Gold subsequently rallied for a few days and took one more nasty leg down before embarking two weeks later on the powerful rally that achieved the recent high at 1266.  _______ UPDATE (2:41 p.m. EDT):  The tradable low came at 1213.00, two ticks above the pivot, but produced a bounce of just $5 before the futures relapsed and headed much lower. Breakdown stops could have been anywhere from 1207.30 to 1205.50, yielding a loss of as much as $750 per contract if no partial profits were taken on the bounce.  I would not suggest carrying a position overnight, since the selling here is the most persistent and powerful that I can ever recall, blowing out Hidden Pivot supports effortlessly.