Gulf Scare Stories Yet to Be Refuted

Just when we thought it might be safe in another five or ten years to go back in the water, our muckraking colleague Matt Drudge is out with a report asserting that methane levels in certain areas of the Gulf of Mexico are a million times higher than normal.  Drudge didn’t pull that number out of thin air, unfortunately – it came from a chemical oceanographer at Texas A&M named John Kessler.  A “chemical oceanographer.” Doesn’t sound like a kook, does he? “Methane levels ranged from 10,000 to nearly one million times higher in some spots than normal concentration,” said Kessler, who had analyzed water samples collected from within a seven-mile radius of the Deepwater Horizon wellhead. The possible implication is that sea life could die off in a big way because of oxygen depletion, and that greenhouse emissions could cause the climate to change.

A methane molecule at idle

You can search the web for this story, but it is no longer available even at Drudge’s site. We found it linked at www.floridaoilspilllaw.com, but the whole methane angle seems to have fallen beneath the radar of the mainstream press. GoogleNews has provided spotty coverage of the Gulf disaster lately, presumably because the news-gathering organizations from which Google steals its stories have relatively limited access to the facts. Even so, there was a scary echo of Matt Simmons’ doomsday talk in the latest, officially acknowledged developments. Most significantly, it would appear that the bedrock separating the oil and gas from the terrestrial world is more fragile than the guys-in-the-know care to discuss. It is also clear that oil and gas seepage is occurring away from the wellhead, and it may be occurring on a catastrophic scale. But yesterday was the first time we heard Admiral Thad Allen himself allude to the possibility of a collapse in the seabed. This was whack-o, Matt Simmons talk just a few weeks ago, but it seems to be gaining currency these days with officially sanctioned spokespersons.

Not So Crazy

And has anyone else noticed that many of the crazy things Simmons has been saying all along remain essentially unrefuted, even if it is still possible to infer — or perhaps, pray — that he has exaggerated the extent of the threat? Dissolved methane turning larger and larger areas of the Gulf into a dead zone? Check. Well casing too damaged to hold pressure? Check. Seabed fissures leaking more oil than the wellhead itself?  Check. It is hardly reassuring that each new solution tried by BP has failed in one way or another. We keep coming back to the relief well as the one solution that is going to work.  It is more than a little disquieting, however, that no one can say this for sure.

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  • Dave July 22, 2010, 7:48 pm

    There was a blowout in the waters off Indonesia in the ’70’s that lasted for several years before it was finally killed. It didn’t destroy the oceans. It did make a mess. The only difference is that it wasn’t in the U.S.A. and there was no CNN broadcasting every little detail. The mess BP makes will be cleaned up and the well will be killed. Pay attention to what else is happening in the world while you’re being diatracted by this.

    • Benjamin July 23, 2010, 4:15 am

      Thanks, Dave, but could you tell us what/where this other blowout was? I’d like to read more about it.

      “The only difference is that it wasn’t in the U.S.A. and there was no CNN broadcasting every little detail.”

      lol… Yes and no. Much has been said and shown about it, but what has been said and shown? Then again, that’s the Western way anymore. Throw out a ton of numbers and possibilities and leave it at that. It really does emphasize the decline of our culture.

  • F. Beard July 22, 2010, 4:49 pm

    Besides, my father is a diabetic and he took to drinking to water to feel full and thus discourage eating in order to better control his sugar when it got too high (despite all other measures to lower it). Very well. I mean, there is no special diet for the diabetic. Most everything becomes sugar, even proteins. Benjamin

    An acquaintance of mine had type II diabetes that he cured with a 21 day, water only fast under doctor supervision. It turns out that cells become immune to insulin in type II diabetes and that fasting will eliminate that immunity.

  • FranSix July 22, 2010, 2:30 am

    Peak oil may actually be a myth that was the foundation of a crazed, decades long plan to control the middle east.

    That could all fall apart should BP make a major oil discovery in the Gulf.

    It was all for nothing.

  • F. Beard July 21, 2010, 10:25 pm

    Myself, I have a condition of the bone marrow which a has a roughly 5-15% chance of becoming cancerous in my lifetime. Ben

    Hey Ben,

    A long term, water only fast will generally eat up pre-cancerous cells. It does wonders to sharpen the mind too if one fasts at least 30 days. Good luck.

    • Benjamin July 22, 2010, 4:40 am

      Thanks for the tip, Mr/Mrs Beard. And the concern. Really! But I take it all in stride, and am not terribly worried about it. We all die of something and oft times of ugly and/or tragic things. And, it wouldn’t be life without this drama, and I suspect we would not pray and talk to God nearly so much if we mortals weren’t so mortal and vulnerable. God, like us, needs to be relevant 🙂

      If this were another forum, oh how I could discuss the philosophy of so-called cures (whatever their origin). And what the hay, I’ll give it go!

      There was a time when I considered becoming a medical doctor or researcher, for cancer specifically, but decided against it for the simple reason that “cures” enable a side of humanity that doesn’t quite sit well with me. Cures and the pursuit of are not science. They are an expression of values, and are not meant to be taken seriously/scientifically (which is just as well, seeing as how humanity has never cured anything, for that we’ve spent millennia looking for even a single one).

      Anyway, on the science side of your suggestion, there is a reason why doctors ask if you’re on any special diet or taking any supplements. It’s not because they wish to stamp out some “cure” in the name of Big Evil, Inc (aka, in this case, BIG PHARMA). They have to know because these things can mask or skew test results, and give a false negative (or positive, depending on how you look at it). Saturating the body with water and starving it, or vice versa, has it’s effects that will skew results. I’ve read about this before, and while I do not recall the link (it’s been a long while) that is what I learned.

      So it’s not a case where I defend “Western medicine” vs “Koo-koo for Quackery”. Western medicine has as much quackery in it as anything else does. The fact is, no one can cure anything. We never have and probably never will, for all that we’ve spent millennia looking for even a single one. What I will say for cures is that they are an expression of personal values, namely that of the value of life, and thus this deeply rooted drive to believe in them has it’s value. But when values cross over into the realm of scientific explanation, I simply cannot abide it. In a lot of ways, such a beast is like health coverage itself (the other reason I didn’t go into medicine). Cures become a false and expensive pursuit that no human can possibly resist the pull of. And as a doctor at heart, I simply cannot encourage that sort of thing. Cures enable a part of the human psyche that really doesn’t do us much good, aside from express our very deep and profound desire to live. If I were to lead a patient or research team to thinking there were cures, I would not be a scientist. I would be a philosopher acting out a human fantasy, and therfore a huckster whether I wore a white lab coat or indian medicine-man paint and garb.

      Besides, my father is a diabetic and he took to drinking to water to feel full and thus discourage eating in order to better control his sugar when it got too high (despite all other measures to lower it). Very well. I mean, there is no special diet for the diabetic. Most everything becomes sugar, even proteins. So he does that when he needs to, sometimes for weeks at a time, yet about ten years ago he had surgery to remove a prostate tumor. Go figure!

      But don’t feel bad. Lots of people have cures that simply don’t work 🙂

    • ben July 22, 2010, 8:33 am

      A 30 day water only fast? LOL? Isn’t that called death by starvation? Benjamin…that’s two…first your math…now your obliviousness to this sarcasm.

  • Rich July 21, 2010, 10:17 pm

    Rick, love yer methane molecule in spandex…

  • Rich July 21, 2010, 10:16 pm

    See earlier RE link:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/38347087

  • cosmo July 21, 2010, 9:42 pm

    I would just like to remind people that your belief systems could be false in the same way people 500 years ago thought the world was flat. A belief is something that is unproven and probably just something you were told at some point. I have been questioning ALL my belief systems as either, “Do I KNOW this to be true, or do I KNOW that I don’t KNOW this is true?” Today, on the net ANYTHING can be asserted and some people will believe it. Look deeper into each statement and “Question Authority”, for the truth lies somewhere else, especially where the govt is concerned.
    Thanks for the forum Rick, and the lively debate herein.
    Peace

  • David B. July 21, 2010, 8:00 pm

    Another person making his living off of global warming? Hmm, in need of peer support and a little lovin? Seriously, I don’t know the man but am getting fed up with the Poppycock surrounding the spill. Perhaps I will buy property down there if the fear and worry continues.
    Mr. Kessler, (assuming you’re old enough to be called Mr.) aren’t there more constructive things you could be doing?

  • Celty July 21, 2010, 3:16 pm

    The true danger of methane comes from the melting permafrost in the arctic. The shallow lakes that have formed bubble with it’s release. The issues of methane on a Global scale from Deep Horizon pale in comparison.

    • Rich July 21, 2010, 6:27 pm

      While it may be true that Siberian methane, ruminants, sunspots, wetlands and volcanoes a bigger factor in global warming, no one wants to live near a (toxic) dead zone, as Verizon ads and Benjamin showed. Might be more than a little early to be buying Gulf timeshares…

  • Benjamin July 21, 2010, 7:28 am

    “Dissolved methane turning larger and larger areas of the Gulf into a dead zone? Check.”

    Okay, then where’s the body count from this dead zone? Did Mr. Kessler, or anyone for that matter, turn up a mass of dead bodies in addition to his measurements? If so, links and pictures please.

    Besides, it’s not up to skeptics to prove or disprove anything. It’s up to those making the claims to provide the evidence.

    “A “chemical oceanographer.” Doesn’t sound like a kook, does he? ”

    Right. And John Wayne Gacy was a trusted member of his community at one time. Sorry Rick, but it’s not like kooks wear signs designating them as such. Nor does scienctific stop at titles and acheivements. In fact, it just gets “worse”. The questions get harder and more numerous on those in the know because, well, that’s how inquiry progresses. Kooks usually do not make it to the advanced stages of questioning before they either bow out or resort to name-calling to reveal just what they really don’t know.

    Not to slam (Dr, I presume) Kessler. He could be right. But we don’t really know that yet because there are questions that stem from his measurement, among many others whether it means anything at all or not. A million times .0000001 is just one, after all.

    • mario cavolo July 21, 2010, 3:02 pm

      “A million times .0000001 is just one, after all.”

      That is the coolest reframe on statistics I have read in a long time, reminding us how incredibly manipulated and misguiding they can be.

    • gerold July 21, 2010, 3:05 pm

      “A million times .0000001 is just one, after all.”

      Yeah, that sounds cute except in this case “just one” = 100%. Lets see you breath 100% methane …

    • Benjamin July 21, 2010, 4:58 pm

      If you liked that, then I recommend a book by John Brignell called “Sorry, Wrong Number!” which is well-written look into the world of statistics and the nature of media headline numbers…

      http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/book.htm#Sorry

      The NumberWatch site itself is quite a read too!

    • ben July 21, 2010, 6:06 pm

      …Besides, it’s not up to skeptics to prove or disprove anything. It’s up to those making the claims to provide the evidence….

      First of all, this is a risible assertion. If neither side proves or disproves anything, it’s called a stalemate. And second off, you’re the one who seems to be the skeptic. So why don’t you prove what you are saying?

      Just in case you are not the skeptic, but the skeptic is me, I’ll prove you wrong…

      A million times .0000001 is just one…

      uh sorry…that equals .1 not 1.

    • Benjamin July 21, 2010, 6:45 pm

      @ben

      What kind of drugs are you on that you don’t understand what I meant? Of course I’m the skeptic! And why should the person who DIDN’T make any assertion have to prove anything over the person who originally did? If I make the claim that cats can fly, is up to you to prove me wrong or myself to prove me right?

      As for the extra zero… So I messed up and added an extra one, er, zero. Sue me…

    • Guest July 23, 2010, 4:18 pm

      The Gulf as in the ocean. So not dead people Ben, dead fish (marine life).

      Kinda hard to get pictures when [BP + the coast guard] won’t let reporters on the beaches let alone out on the water + Corexit prevents the dead sea life as well as the oil from rising to the surface. Perfect cover up chemical.

      Given that it accepted that Corexit itself is very harmful to sea life I don’t understand how you can argue that we need to see pictures of dead bodies (I assume you mean human bodies) to validate a chemical oceanographers scientific measurements. Or before we can contend that a large area of the gulf is likely a dead zone, in relation to marine life, from multiple sources of pollution. Oil, methane, Corexit etc.

  • Grass Ranger July 21, 2010, 5:44 am

    Having grown up in and around the oil fields in East Texas and seen how quickly Mother Nature converts spilled oil to asphalt and eventually to a little black carbon in the soil, my own expectation is the whole Gulf oil spill hullaballoo will quickly fall out of the news except for occasional updates.
    I am not surprised to hear there was a great percentage increase in the dissolve methane levels around the well. Natural levels of dissolved methane are very low in most aerated waters. With the amount of discharge at the well, a million-fold increase in dissolved methane should be expected in the near vicinity. Now that the well is capped, methane levels should quickly decline as the methane is diluted in the vastness of the Gulf and certain percentages are either hydrated and settle to the sea bottom or enter the atmosphere from the sea surface.
    In short, instead of years or decades of ecological impacts, my bet is that by this time next year, it will be hard to find much evidence of damage from this well anywhere in Louisiana except in the courtroom.

    • Dale July 21, 2010, 6:07 am

      There is physical damage, psychological damage and in this case economic damage to the locals. I suspect that even if we were to accept your argument that a year from now there will be little evidence of physical damage, the economic damage will be evident for several years to come.

      With regard to Gulf coast properties, I wonder if Baron Rothschild would say “The time to buy is when there’s oil on the beaches”

    • Benjamin July 21, 2010, 7:49 am

      “In short, instead of years or decades of ecological impacts, my bet is that by this time next year, it will be hard to find much evidence of damage from this well anywhere in Louisiana except in the courtroom.”

      Perhaps, perhaps not. In Kuwait, for example, an eye is still kept on the ongoing results of Saddam’s rash actions post Desert Storm. There’s still problematic areas in which large quantities of crude were released and it does seem to have an impact on the health of the nearby population.

      That said, it’s not exactly catastrophic. It’s about on par with what would be expected to be found in any area where oil is extracted and/or refined. Speaking of which, I live nearby BP’s Whiting refinery in NW Indiana, and we do have slightly more cases of leukemia than the national average. Myself, I have a condition of the bone marrow which a has a roughly 5-15% chance of becoming cancerous in my lifetime. Of course, it’s impossible to say whether or not it’s the result of statistical possibility vs that of an oil company’s activities.

      Anyway, as far as damages go down there I can’t say I blame the people. I mean, if nothing else, if I had to go further out in order to collect some non oil coated shrimp, I would demand someone pay me for the loss. If I got sick from breathing inthe fumes of oil that kept washing up ashore, I would demand they pay the bills, present and future.

      And why not? After all, that’s what competition is all about. If a company keeps screwing up (and BP has a record for screwing up) then maybe they shouldn’t be in that business in the first place. Not that I’m saying it’s okay to sue the pants off of them as a matter of principle. But if that’s what it adds up to, that’s what it adds up to. If not, then it doesn’t and BP gets another chance to do something right.

    • Rich July 21, 2010, 6:23 pm

      Big difference between oil fields of East Texas and Kuwait Persian Gulf is temperature.
      Macondo Mississippi Canyon water temps of 2 C inhibit microbial action.
      Co-rexit dispersant sprayed from the air or underwater dissolved or settled a lot of the spill to the bottom to keep it out of sight for PR purposes.
      Tons of dead marine animals settled to bottom in cold water or were burned or buried at the EPA dumps. Now toxic chemical components going into food chain and water supply. Chechnya Wormwood with a shorter half-life…

  • Dale July 21, 2010, 5:22 am

    Old news, Rick, but scary nonetheless. Here is the Reuters story from June 22. Link still works as of now. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65L6IA20100622

    • Dale July 21, 2010, 5:54 am

      Also…. I keep an eye on Gulf Shores AL because until 2 years ago, when my best friend sold his Phoenix III condo, I spent a week there every October since 1980. Usually during the Shrimp Fest. According to an analytical chemist, Bob Naman, the normal oil in water would be no higher than 5 ppm. The sand at the shoreline now contains 211 ppm and the water where people still swim is 66 ppm. One water sample that he tested actually exploded due to methane gas “possibly”. Here are two short videos on the subject from Channel 5 news (Pensacola – Mobile) investigative report.

      http://www.wkrg.com/gulf_oil_spill/article/news-5-investigates-testing-the-water/906545/Jul-18-2010_7-40-pm/

    • Benjamin July 21, 2010, 4:52 pm

      “One water sample that he tested actually exploded due to methane gas “possibly”.”

      I read and watched, then decided to take the time to think about it, for the sake of presenting a lesson as to how skepticism works. So this isn’t a bashing session on my part. Consider it an exercise in critical thinking on “seeing is believing”.

      I’ll start with a pop quiz… Quick! Why did it explode?!

      I had to rewind and rewatch that in order to catch one glaring fault: It wasn’t like he put an open flame to it and BOOM. It was just an unnamed organic solvent of some sort, and we saw no details of his actuall experiment, nor were we filled in on what the nature of this test was. I think they owed us at the very least a Mythbusters-style explanation, complete with illustrations to get the point across, if not a live test. But anyway…

      So the first questions I thought of were: Was it a valid test? Were those kinds of chemicals supposed to be used? If so, did he perform this test on all samples in the right way? (mistakes are always possible, and after all we were only TOLD that it was all done right. We didn’t actually see though)

      I ask these because there’s a world of difference between an explosion brought about by a physical change (like open flame to flammable liquid) vs that of chemical change (whatever this solvent was). A chemical explosion can take place for as many reasons as there are compounds to create them with. So “it shouldn’t happen” has no meaning. So long as chemistry and it’s laws are in place, it certainly can happen if things are done in the right combination in the right amounts. You can make water explode by throwing it into a vat of HCL, for example, which is a chemical explosion (one that “shouldn’t happen” because most scientists know better than to do something like that).

      But I’ll give the chemist the benefit of the doubt and say he did everything he should have done to expect no explosion. So the next question is… Might something else in the water have caused the beaker of oil/water to explode?

      This is a seemingly silly question to ask but since chemical explosions are a different monster, it needs to be asked because the answers could refute the conclusions. It’s not like he flicked a lighter and BOOM, which I supposed could have happened if there was that much oil and methane in there. Again, though, this was a chemical catalyst, not a physical one.

      So what if we were to take samples from all over the world, water with various ph and various other things in it (but no oil) and then saturate those sample with oil? Would we get an explosion if we added in the same organic solvent in the same quantities that this chemist did? And what if that didn’t happen?

      It would’ve been nice… so very, very nice indeed… if we were allowed such an enlightening comparison.

      Now, I’m not saying they should have flown all over the world gathering samples, as there are records they could have consulted. There’s been plenty of oil slicks where the water has been tested, perhaps with this unknown organic solvent, perhaps not, but maybe with something similar if not exact. But one would think that if these levels of oil were soundly linked to chemical explosions during tests, that it would be documented somewhere in that mountain of data.

      (On a side note, I find it strange that many such tests probably have been done, yet Mr. Chemist there “had no reason expect” an explosion. But if oil can concentrate in explosive quantities with this organic solvent, he should have known to expect it because of previous tests that have been done on other spills. But even if previous testing did not exist, no chemist in his right mind would do a virgin test in a friggin’ cap and reading glasses! Sorry, but I don’t this guy is a chemist and if he is, he’s not a very good one)

      Trouble is, journalists are lazy anymore. They go to _some_ (and that’s giving the media credit) length to make it look and sound sciency. But without much more than that, it isn’t any better than intentional sensationalism. They show us a broken beaker and say “it shouldn’t have happened because the man in the white coat said he didn’t expect it”. I don’t think they all try to mislead on purpose, as human nature is quite enough to give false impressions. It’s just plain laziness “at work” in many cases, I suspect.

      So given that, how can we really be sure that we saw what we thought we saw, given that there’s so much we weren’t shown? And believe it or not, this line of questioning is just the tip of the iceberg. There’s a slew of other questions I thought to ask. But this has been lengthy enough for one day 🙂

    • Rich July 21, 2010, 6:11 pm

      B, you mean an organic solvent like Co-rexit?

    • Benjamin July 21, 2010, 6:48 pm

      Rich,

      I don’t know what the organic solvent was, as they didn’t say (and probaly because they didn’t want anyone to get any ideas if they were to know, now that I think about it).

  • SDavid July 21, 2010, 5:07 am

    Your buddy, Max Keiser, seems to think Google (among others) is in bed with the powers-that-be.

    Hard to argue with him.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPoz5_xD84k&feature=player_embedded

    Doublethink Newspeak is alive and well, apparently.

  • SDavid July 21, 2010, 5:05 am

    Your buddy, Max Keiser, seems to think Google (among others) is in bed with the powers-that-be.

    Hard not to argue with him.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPoz5_xD84k&feature=player_embedded

    Doublethink Newspeak is alive and well, apparently.

    • Rich July 21, 2010, 10:13 pm

      Eric Schmidt 0’s adviser…