ESU10 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1114.50)

Two hours into the session, the futures looked like they were headed up to at least 1127.25, having exceeded that Hidden Pivot’s sibling midpoint resistance at 1120.25 by 2.50 points.  Instead, they turned tail and bounced lower, suggesting a failure of nerve just beneath Monday’s high.  The rally target will remain valid nonetheless unless point ‘C’ (i.e., 1113.25) is exceeded to the downside, but we would suggest initiating a bull trade only if camouflage materializes in exactly the way show in the chart. The key “external” peak is a very obscure one at 1119.25, and its breach — though not a breach of the 1120.00 peak just to the left of it — would subtly announce a possible breakout toward 1127.25.  There are other camouflage possibilities that could develop, but the one pictured is as subtle — and therefore as safe — as any I can imagine. _______ UPDATE (3:55 a.m. EDT):  The 1119.25 peak proved important and useful, though not in the way we might have hoped; for instead of providing us with a subtle impulse leg to leverage, the seemingly obscure peak stopped a rally cold that had taken six hours to develop. Since the futures did not exceed the peak — they double-topped with it at exactly 1119.25 — there was no impulse leg and therefore no trade.