Gold forced a few green shoots through concrete yesterday, setting the stage for a shot this month at June’s all-time highs near $1270. That would require a further rally of just 3.5 percent from current levels, based on yesterday’s $1226.90 settlement price for the Comex December contract. We’d anticipated Monday’s $13 push through resistance with the following forecast, disseminated to Rick’s Picks subscribers Sunday night: “Last week’s bullish finishing stroke brought into focus a minor Hidden Pivot target at $1229.10 that we should use as a minimum upside objective for the near term.  That may seem like a conservative goal because it lies just $12 above Friday’s settlement price, but it would have decisively bullish implications, since the target is above heavy supply created over a two-week period in early July. The futures are almost certain to push above the supply zone this week, but the earlier in the week they do so, the more bullish the implications will be going forward.”

As it happened, the bulls’ successful use of the battering ram came earlier in the week than we might have expected — on a Monday – and this is indeed a sign that buyers are probably eager for more.  By day’s end, they had pushed the December contract past our target by 40 cents, as well as through a supply zone near $1222 that had resisted their best efforts for nearly a month. Moreover, a subsequent pullback from the 1229.50 high amounted to just $6, more than half of which had been recouped by day’s end. All of this augurs more upside over the near term to at least 1244.20, a Hidden Pivot target that appears in the same sequence as yesterday’s.

Seasonal Factors

In the Rick’s Picks chat room — which has been quiet lately, as is often the case at this time of year — gold’s show of strength elicited some encouraging chatter, including the following technical observations, attributed to one Ashraf Laidi (who was said not to be a gold bug): “Gold seasonals of the last eight years indicate Q4 is the best quarter, showing gains in seven of the last eight years, followed by Q3 and Q1 rising in six of the last eights. The current gold rally could be especially powerful as it combines the onset of further Treasurys purchases by the Fed and broadening questions about Eurozone debt, this time from Ireland.”

We’ll be monitoring gold’s vital signs very closely in the days ahead, since there is always a chance that this rally is a bull trap. If you want to following along with us in the chat room and via updates in real time, you can sign up for a free seven-day trial to the service by clicking here.

(If you’d like to have Rick’s Picks commentary delivered free each day to your e-mail box, click here.)