AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:309.190)

Apple Computer (AAPL) price chart with targetsReady to try another butterfly?  We racked up a theoretical profit of $1360 the last time around, so it’s only natural to want to do it again.  This time, although I have no specific rally target in mind, we’ll be betting on the likelihood that AAPL shares will continue to move strongly higher over time.  But first they look likely to correct some more — presumably down to a Hidden Pivot support at 292.87. With the goal of legging into the January 330-340-350 call butterfly at no cost, let’s start with the purchase of two January 330-340 call spreads if and when AAPL falls to the 292.87 target.  The spread closed yesterday for 1.90, but we should be looking to pay no more than 1.25-1.30.  I’ve included a snapshot of an option calculator that shows how I estimated fair value.  The volatility estimate, 29, comes from TradeStation and is crucial to my assumption. ______ UPDATE (12:02 p.m. ET): Far from correcting, Apple has used the stock market’s broad rally today to reassert its primacy as the highest-beta stock of them all.  AAPL is up more than $8 at the moment, so we can forget about stealing the January 330-340 spread for relative pennies.  Assuming the rally continues — a safe bet, since the company is one of a bare handful of firms in America that are making money the old-fashioned way, hand-over-fist — we’ll consider legging into the butterfly from the opposite direction — i.e., shorting the January 340-350 call spread when AAPL approaches a Hidden Pivot rally target. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (Sunday, November 21):  There are innumerable ways in which things could play out this week, but if any of the possibilities has the potential to yield an edge as we contemplate legging into  bullish butterfly spread, I will signal it both here and in the chat room via an intraday alert.