November 2010

Join me 20 minutes before the NYSE opening Tuesday morning for an unadvertised briefing on gold, silver and index futures.  We'll be looking for timely trading opportunities.  I'll post information in the chat room on how to access the session, which will be open to all.  It will be followed by a Q&A session on the Hidden Pivot Method.

With just a little extra push, the futures slightly surpassed the bullish rally target at 1366.10 that I disseminated late last night, creating a fresh impulse leg on the hourly chart in the process. The implication is that buyers are about to take the futures up to at least 1371.70, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown in the chart. If you're looking for a place to board -- presumably via camouflage -- the most logical spot to try would be near 1359.80, the c-d midpoint pivot of the rally under way. _______ UPDATE (9:52 a.m. ET):  Gold has achieved the target and then some, topping so far today at 1373.30. It will take a bit more than that, however -- specifically, a 1376.70 print before noon -- to refresh the bullish impulse on the hourly chart.  Otherwise, look for backing and filling and an unexciting rest-of-the-day.

With the Dow down 150 points in the early going yesterday, bears might have imagined they had the bad guys on the run. Alas, a brisk torrent of OPM came rushing back into shares, inflating them like a shot of propane lifting a hot-air balloon.  All of the manufactured excitement didn't leave much for us in the way of opportunity, but if you're looking for action, I'll suggest trying the bottom-fishing gambit shown in the chart.  I won't mention the Hidden Pivot itself in this tout so that it can be an "unadvertised special." _______ UPDATE (8:59 a.m. ET):  The futures took a 3-point bounce from 1186.00, so the trade was hypothetically a winner, although not a big one.  The futures subsequently dipped to 1185.00, and although a 7-point rally ensued, the damage had already been done, signaling the weakness that has followed.  It yields an 1175.25 target, which you can bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks.

Silver went ballistic just as I was putting the finishing touches on Monday's touts.  The action changes nothing in the bullish forecast that went out Friday, but it will put plenty of pressure on DaScumballs who have been trying to hold bullion down.

The chart reproduced here on Friday is still valid. It shows a pattern going back to early November with the potential to reach 30.385 over the next 4-5 days.  First, as noted here earlier, a midpoint resistance at 27.685 will need to be surmounted.  This could happen sooner rather than later, since the futures have commenced Sunday night's activity with a 35-cent leap to a so-far high at 27.685, a tick shy of our bull trigger price.  Oops. They have just this moment pushed to 27.875.  Looks like the bad guys, aka DaScumballs, are in for a rough time!

With respect to the short-term picture, the futures have done little to encourage lately.  In fact, the sleazy head-fake on the opening bar Friday looked more like a short-squeeze-distribution ploy than bullish buying. It also failed to clear some minor peaks from last Monday, furthering the suspicion that Gold is in no great hurry to take flight. In any event, an upthrust today would need to exceed 1378.40 to catch fire.  That's the midpoint resistance on the pattern shown in the chart. ______ UPDATE (2:47 p.m. ET): It's shortly before 3 a.m. and the futures have been as high as 1364.80. The nearest HP target is 1366.10, but if the futures shred it, getting to -- and then past -- 1378.40 shouldn't be a problem.

The futures look poised to pop to at least 1.3754, predicated on their success in decisively surmounting a lesser Hidden Pivot resistance, a midpoint at 1.3691.  If they get by the higher number, that would portend still more upside over the near term to as high as 1.3778.  However, even achieving the lesser number will renew the bull trend on the hourly chart, so we should view the action over the next day or two as crucial in determining whether the rally is destined for big things or merely a flash-in-the-pan. _______ UPDATE (9:00 p.m. ET):  The Hidden Pivot target caught the actual high at 1.3785 within 0.0007 points. The futures dove sharply thereafter, erasing the gains from two days and then some.

The pullback from last week's 79.46 high will need to come down to at least 77.82 -- 0.34 points beneath the so far correction low -- for this vehicle to be considered properly recharged for a second bull leg.  Anything could in fact happen, but we'll let the burden of proof continue to rest on the bulls, since, after all, it is the illusion of a flying pig that they will be attempting to sustain.

Take a look at the chart if you want to see a worthless day of navel-gazing.  When I wrote as follows, I only hope that I saved you the tedium and minor anguish of tracking the futures for six pointless hours: "Let’s spare ourselves any ambitions in this vehicle today..."  Anyway, today is potentially a different story if DaBoyz kick off Thanksgiving week's obligatory short-squeeze coming out of the gate.   The Hidden Pivot resistance to monitor lies at 1199.50 -- exactly where Friday's head-butting inanity paused no fewer than three times. A three-point move above it today, or a close above it, would portend more upside over the near term to at least 1228.00.  Here are the relevant coordinates from the 60-minute chart: A=1167.75 (October 27), B=1124.75 (November 9).